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There is a substitute for the falling dollar: hydrocarbons. Here is an interesting thought experiment to try: 1) The Dow Jones Industry Average (aka "the Dow"
by eserorg 17y ago
There is a substitute for the falling dollar: hydrocarbons.
Here is an interesting thought experiment to try:
1) The Dow Jones Industry Average (aka "the Dow") is a weighted average of the aggregate value of 30 of the largest and most widely held public companies in the United States. In other words, think of the Dow as answering this question: "How many dollars does it take for me to buy a piece of the most valuable corporations in the United States?"
2) Now, try this: draw a graph of the Dow denominated not in dollars, but in barrels of oil.
3) In other words, answer this question: "how many barrels of oil does it take to buy a piece of the most valuable publicly-traded corporations in the United States?" (Also, try this for Gold -- "how many ounces of Gold does it take to buy a unit of the Dow?")
4) Answer this question for: (1) the present day, (2) 1999 -- the peak of the dot-com bubble, (3) 1980 -- the depths of the pre-Reagan recession, (4) 1933 -- the depths of the "Great Depression", (5) 1972 -- the aftermath of Johnson's "great society" and the Vietnam war.
5) Notice anything interesting?
6) This explains why may cash-rich entities, such as the sovereign wealth fund of China, are trading their dollars for stakes in petroleum producing properties. This asset allocation provides two benefits: (1) protection of their principal, (2) a steady cash-flow of fiat currency with which to acquire more properties, and/or finance liabilities.
7) Every time the Obama administration runs a deficit of US dollars and calls on the treasury and/or fed to increase the supply of dollars (and to consequently decrease the value of dollars in _your_ pocket), think of it as a wealth transfer to people in the Oil and Gas business; As well as to those who have the resources, connections, and know-how to allocate capital to the hydrocarbons industry.
There is a substitute for dollars, it's just not available to the average person -- whose net work will be steadily eroded, in real terms, as the U.S. continues to run deficits to finance: (1) two wars, (2) "universal health care", (3) "clean energy" subsidies
Every time you read a dollar-denominated figure, convert that to barrels of oil. It's a fascinating exercise -- especially when you have some historical perspective on this metric.
The thing with oil is that you can only consume what you have. Unfortunately, that is not true with dollars -- trillions of them have been created out of thin air over the past year.
Here's a radical idea: What if there were a country who pegged it's currency not to the dollar, or to gold, but rather to oil?
- lucifer 17y agoPetroleum backed currencies could be a viable alternative, but the countries best placed to float (npi) such a currency are mostly in the cross hairs of the global powers (precisely for that reason?).
- camccann 17y agoHere's a radical idea: What if there were a country who pegged it's currency not to the dollar, or to gold, but rather to oil? An interesting idea, but would probably get awkward in the mid-to-long term. Oil is a consumable resource with a finite (and dwindling) supply. At some point in the relatively near future, the price of oil is likely to gradually become completely unhinged from its historical value (in the sense of value as wealth, not cost). You'd get some of the same effect in a more stable manner if you instead pegged a currency by energy production capacity of an arbitrary consumable resource. For instance, something like "one zorkmid shall equal the average cost in consumed resources to produce twenty kWh of power from a power plant generating at least one gigawatt" or "one zorkmid shall equal the cost in consumed resources to drive at 50mph for one hour in a standard four-passenger vehicle".
- patrickgzill 17y agoI agree with many of your points, however, there are many reasons not to use oil as a store of value. Oil can burn, evaporate, leak out of a tanker and be dispersed and not be able to be retrieved. Gold is far safer, being a noble metal that reacts with very little. Also you are not accounting for the fact that essentially, the USD is backed by oil - until recently all international oil transactions were denominated in USD.