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"What's the worst case scenario" may be a valid question, but it's not a very helpful question...particularly not in a mass-market film where the caveat 'this i

"What's the worst case scenario" may be a valid question, but it's not a very helpful question...particularly not in a mass-market film where the caveat 'this is extremely unlikely' will be forgotten and the take-home message is that Florida is about to disappear. People should be informed about the issues in a manner that is as honest and realistic as possible, particularly when the uncertainties are so great.

jraines 19y ago
It is a helpful question when thinking about what action to take. It's basic game theory, and it's why nobody ever launched a nuclear first strike during the Cold War. Why is this being modded down? If you don't consider the worst case scenario in strategic decision making, you're a fool. Especially when the worst case is famine, plague, etc., not "my startup crashes and I move back in with the parents".
- te_platt 19y ago
  It only makes sense to consider the worst case scenario in the context of the probability that it will happen. On my drive home the worst case scenario is that I will be killed in a car accident, yet I'm going to take that chance. Also we have to consider the worst case scenario of the other course of action. What if the actions taken to combat global warming cause worse famine, plague, etc.?
  - downer 19y ago
    > On my drive home the worst case scenario is that I will be killed in a car accident No, the worst case scenario is you crash and are alive but trapped... At night, the ice weasels come.
  - jraines 19y ago
    You are correct about this. Without getting into probabilities of the different outcomes resulting from action or non-action on climate change, I'd recommend the video someone posted lower down in this thread. The weight given to an outcome in considering it in decision making would be the probability x magnitude (+ or -). So on your drive home the risk of death might not affect your decision to make the drive, if you had to drive across Johannesburg or Kuala Lumpar, you might consider taking a cab. So even while the probability that the Country A would survive a nuclear first strike with the capability to retaliate was quite low -- the magnitude of the outcome from its doing so was enough to dissuade Country B from taking that chance. To the other commenter below -- just google 'prisoner's dilemma' or 'Nash equilibrium' for some sources to get you started on game theory. Note: I'm not claiming to be an expert on game theory by any means. I'm recounting the Mutually Assured Destruction example from an economics class's subsection on game theory and would be happy if someone wanted to prove me wrong or elaborate on the subject.
- huherto 19y ago
  You comment is very intriguing. Can you recommend any references to strategic decision making in basic game theory? Thanks.
  - ekanes 19y ago
    Here's a video exploring a game theory approach to the climate change problem: http://youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ http://youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ

jraines 19y ago

It is a helpful question when thinking about what action to take. It's basic game theory, and it's why nobody ever launched a nuclear first strike during the Cold War. Why is this being modded down? If you don't consider the worst case scenario in strategic decision making, you're a fool. Especially when the worst case is famine, plague, etc., not "my startup crashes and I move back in with the parents".

te_platt 19y ago
It only makes sense to consider the worst case scenario in the context of the probability that it will happen. On my drive home the worst case scenario is that I will be killed in a car accident, yet I'm going to take that chance. Also we have to consider the worst case scenario of the other course of action. What if the actions taken to combat global warming cause worse famine, plague, etc.?
- downer 19y ago
  > On my drive home the worst case scenario is that I will be killed in a car accident No, the worst case scenario is you crash and are alive but trapped... At night, the ice weasels come.
- jraines 19y ago
  You are correct about this. Without getting into probabilities of the different outcomes resulting from action or non-action on climate change, I'd recommend the video someone posted lower down in this thread. The weight given to an outcome in considering it in decision making would be the probability x magnitude (+ or -). So on your drive home the risk of death might not affect your decision to make the drive, if you had to drive across Johannesburg or Kuala Lumpar, you might consider taking a cab. So even while the probability that the Country A would survive a nuclear first strike with the capability to retaliate was quite low -- the magnitude of the outcome from its doing so was enough to dissuade Country B from taking that chance. To the other commenter below -- just google 'prisoner's dilemma' or 'Nash equilibrium' for some sources to get you started on game theory. Note: I'm not claiming to be an expert on game theory by any means. I'm recounting the Mutually Assured Destruction example from an economics class's subsection on game theory and would be happy if someone wanted to prove me wrong or elaborate on the subject.
huherto 19y ago
You comment is very intriguing. Can you recommend any references to strategic decision making in basic game theory? Thanks.
- ekanes 19y ago
  Here's a video exploring a game theory approach to the climate change problem: http://youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ http://youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ