5 ms·

2% of pilots _dying_ is still pretty high -- higher than I expected. Someone mentioned it being akin to motorcycling riding, but I can't imagine that 2% of moto

by zipppy 13y ago

2% of pilots _dying_ is still pretty high -- higher than I expected. Someone mentioned it being akin to motorcycling riding, but I can't imagine that 2% of motorcyclists die from it.

lutusp 13y ago
> Someone mentioned it being akin to motorcycling riding, but I can't imagine that 2% of motorcyclists die from it. The rates for motorcycle accidents and deaths is really very high: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorcycle_safety#Accident_rates http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorcycle_safety#Accident_rate... Quote: "According to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), in 2006, 13.10 cars out of 100,000 ended up in fatal crashes. The rate for motorcycles is 72.34 per 100,000 registered motorcycles." That's about 5 1/2 times greater.
- Tossrock 13y ago
  And still much less than 2%.
  - Retric 13y ago
    72.34 per year per 100,000 registered motorcycles * 30 years is 2.17%. Worse plenty of people own more than one motorcycle so the rate is probably higher than that.
    - jedmeyers 13y ago
      Those are not the same "motorcycles" each year, so you cannot multiply by 30.
      - vilhelm_s 13y ago
        How do you mean? The suggested calculation is: In any given year, a motorcycle owner has a 72/100000 chance of dying. So if you own a motorcycle for 30 years, the chance of dying is approximately 30*72/100000.
        rogerhoward 13y ago
        If you own a motorcycle for 30 years, your chances are not the same every year - your chances of dying on a bike are higher when you're younger and when you have less years on a bike. So every year I ride, my chance of dying that year on a bike gets smaller. In other words, the bulk of deaths on bikes are young, inexperienced, and/or unlicensed riders. Also, bike deaths are far more likely to involve alcohol than car deaths; so if you're like me and you don't drink before riding, you've just improved your chances.
        Retric 13y ago
        Not really, your odds do change as a non drinker but age is far less important than you might think. Your hypotetical driver that owns a motorcycle for 30 years is more likely to die over 25 than under it. http://www.cdc.gov/features/dsMotorcycleSafety/ http://www.cdc.gov/features/dsMotorcycleSafety/ A significant reason for this is your far less likely to survive an accident as an older rider than a young one. Note: The death rate statistics they quote include non motorcycle owners.
        rogerhoward 13y ago
        "Your hypotetical driver that owns a motorcycle for 30 years is more likely to die over 25 than under it." That's a very weird statistic. Sure, since those riders spend most of their 30 years riding time over 25yo. From your link: "The highest death and injury rates were among 20-24 year-olds, followed by 25-29 year-olds."
        rogerhoward 13y ago
        Also, one other note - I was talking about riding experience, not absolute age - something the CDC doesn't track, but other large studies I've seen do. There's a strong correlation between experience - whether gauged by years of riding or, even better, raw mileage. There's also a huge correlation between unlicensed riders and serious injuries. Motorcycle riders are far more likely to be unlicensed than car drivers - last I heard was something like 3-4 times as likely. Unlicensed motorcycle riders are over twice as likely to be in fatal accidents than licensed motorcycle riders. I ride 15,000-20,000 miles a year - I'm well trained, equipped, and experienced. A lot of bike owners ride weekends, occasional trips, etc. I actually don't ride much on the weekends - and when I do, I'm pretty shocked how bad (dangerous, rude, etc) the riders are compared to the commuters I mostly see.
      - deleted 13y ago
        [deleted]
- johnny99 13y ago
  That's on a per-vehicle basis. On a per-mile basis they're dramatically more dangerous: per mile travelled, motorcyclists are 37 times more likely to die in a crash than passenger car occupants: http://www.aaos.org/news/aaosnow/jul12/clinical1.asp http://www.aaos.org/news/aaosnow/jul12/clinical1.asp I gave up my brief motorcycle career after having kids, which I'm rather glad of now, reading that.

by zipppy 13y ago

2% of pilots _dying_ is still pretty high -- higher than I expected. Someone mentioned it being akin to motorcycling riding, but I can't imagine that 2% of motorcyclists die from it.

lutusp 13y ago

> Someone mentioned it being akin to motorcycling riding, but I can't imagine that 2% of motorcyclists die from it. The rates for motorcycle accidents and deaths is really very high: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorcycle_safety#Accident_rates http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorcycle_safety#Accident_rate... Quote: "According to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), in 2006, 13.10 cars out of 100,000 ended up in fatal crashes. The rate for motorcycles is 72.34 per 100,000 registered motorcycles." That's about 5 1/2 times greater.

Tossrock 13y ago
And still much less than 2%.
- Retric 13y ago
  72.34 per year per 100,000 registered motorcycles * 30 years is 2.17%. Worse plenty of people own more than one motorcycle so the rate is probably higher than that.
  - jedmeyers 13y ago
    Those are not the same "motorcycles" each year, so you cannot multiply by 30.
    - vilhelm_s 13y ago
      How do you mean? The suggested calculation is: In any given year, a motorcycle owner has a 72/100000 chance of dying. So if you own a motorcycle for 30 years, the chance of dying is approximately 30*72/100000.
      - rogerhoward 13y ago
        If you own a motorcycle for 30 years, your chances are not the same every year - your chances of dying on a bike are higher when you're younger and when you have less years on a bike. So every year I ride, my chance of dying that year on a bike gets smaller. In other words, the bulk of deaths on bikes are young, inexperienced, and/or unlicensed riders. Also, bike deaths are far more likely to involve alcohol than car deaths; so if you're like me and you don't drink before riding, you've just improved your chances.
        Retric 13y ago
        Not really, your odds do change as a non drinker but age is far less important than you might think. Your hypotetical driver that owns a motorcycle for 30 years is more likely to die over 25 than under it. http://www.cdc.gov/features/dsMotorcycleSafety/ http://www.cdc.gov/features/dsMotorcycleSafety/ A significant reason for this is your far less likely to survive an accident as an older rider than a young one. Note: The death rate statistics they quote include non motorcycle owners.
        rogerhoward 13y ago
        "Your hypotetical driver that owns a motorcycle for 30 years is more likely to die over 25 than under it." That's a very weird statistic. Sure, since those riders spend most of their 30 years riding time over 25yo. From your link: "The highest death and injury rates were among 20-24 year-olds, followed by 25-29 year-olds."
        rogerhoward 13y ago
        Also, one other note - I was talking about riding experience, not absolute age - something the CDC doesn't track, but other large studies I've seen do. There's a strong correlation between experience - whether gauged by years of riding or, even better, raw mileage. There's also a huge correlation between unlicensed riders and serious injuries. Motorcycle riders are far more likely to be unlicensed than car drivers - last I heard was something like 3-4 times as likely. Unlicensed motorcycle riders are over twice as likely to be in fatal accidents than licensed motorcycle riders. I ride 15,000-20,000 miles a year - I'm well trained, equipped, and experienced. A lot of bike owners ride weekends, occasional trips, etc. I actually don't ride much on the weekends - and when I do, I'm pretty shocked how bad (dangerous, rude, etc) the riders are compared to the commuters I mostly see.
    - deleted 13y ago
      [deleted]
johnny99 13y ago
That's on a per-vehicle basis. On a per-mile basis they're dramatically more dangerous: per mile travelled, motorcyclists are 37 times more likely to die in a crash than passenger car occupants: http://www.aaos.org/news/aaosnow/jul12/clinical1.asp http://www.aaos.org/news/aaosnow/jul12/clinical1.asp I gave up my brief motorcycle career after having kids, which I'm rather glad of now, reading that.