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Such a simulation would reveal a lot about the creator's beliefs, and essentially nothing about reality.
by hbags 13y ago
Such a simulation would reveal a lot about the creator's beliefs, and essentially nothing about reality.
- aet 13y agoYou may find this interesting: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/WhyEconomistsShunSimulation.Lehtinen2008.pdf http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/WhyEconomistsShunSimul...
- yummyfajitas 13y agoMaking the creator's beliefs (including hidden assumptions) completely clear is valuable all by itself. But in addition to revealing the creator's beliefs it also reveals arithmetic errors, which are quite common in poorly specified verbal models. For an example of the latter, observe this HN thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7042469 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7042469
- scarmig 13y agoI'm surprised you didn't include a link to this thread, where I still owe you some work... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6725096 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6725096
- yummyfajitas 13y agoYeah, but that's a discussion I didn't want to get into again. A simple, completely indisputable arithmetic error made the point better.
- arethuza 13y agoThat's all any model used to construct a predictive simulation can do.