5 ms·

The Silent Majority of Experts

131 points by the_mat 13y ago

gwern 13y ago
But without any way of correcting for this silent majority, or any sort of predictable systematic tendency, so what? We don't know everything? There's a lot of things we don't know, and on most topics we hear from only a small fraction of people, both expert and otherwise. Why is this worth pointing out? (The point of knowing about things like publication biases in science is that they are systematic: once you know about publication bias, you know that estimates are on net, higher than they should be, and this is something you can apply to evaluating science that you read.)
- pnathan 13y ago
  It's a common argument - "Lots of people use this but don't talk about it! It still matters!". Common Lispers sometimes say that (but we talk a lot. ;-) ) On the other hand, you can't make decisions without data - without discernable activity, it's reasonable to assume a community is dead.
- nostrademons 13y ago
  But the non-expert bias online is systematic. Time spent participating online is time not spent honing your craft, and so there should be a strong inverse correlation between posting frequency and expertise. There are real, pragmatic ways to correct for this bias and get more useful information out of online forums, too. For example: 1.) Look for people who have a solid, independently-verifiable track record who are now just starting ventures that need publicity. For example, Marc Andreesen had an absolutely awesome weblog in the ~1 year prior to founding Andreesen-Horowitz, but now his comments are largely limited to snarky one-liners and occasionally insightful one-paragraphers. Why? There's no incentive for him to spread his knowledge around the general public; his firm already has enough of a reputation to draw the top potential founders. The entrepreneurs he funds get his advice, but everybody else has to make due with occasional soundbites. 2.) Look for people who post only brief, offhand comments, but then follow up on those comments and do the research yourself. Many "silent experts" may have time in between compile breaks to throw in a throwaway comment or correction, but they don't have time to write a long missive. However, if you follow-up yourself and do a bit of Googling, you can take their clues and learn what they were talking about. This is how I found out about Haskell, it's how I found out about writing scalable event-driven servers, and it's how I found out about writing multi-language systems where a scripting language is embedded inside a larger program. 3.) Look for people who can see & acknowledge both sides of an issue. Practical experience teaches you about trade-offs, it teaches you about alternatives, and it teaches you that there are often multiple solutions and oftentimes you need to give up some desirable properties to get others. Blog posts by Internet Fanboyz teach you that there is One True Way Of Doing Everything that will solve all your problems, because that is the only way they've ever encountered. 4.) Similarly, look for people who stay out of flamewars. Folks with real jobs who care about their craft don't have time for that shit, because becoming an expert takes a lot of time. So the folks who do have time for that shit are generally either folks without jobs or folks who blow off their jobs to score points on the Internet. 5.) And perhaps most effectively - work directly with an expert. Start contributing to open-source and understand why the maintainers make the choices they do. Take a job at a well-respected company. Work with the gruff neckbeard at your employer. When experienced programmers have to clean up the messes you make, they have a very strong vested interest in not letting you make any messes.
  - edanm 13y ago
    "Time spent participating online is time not spent honing your craft, and so there should be a strong inverse correlation between posting frequency and expertise." Anecdotally, this is absolutely wrong. I can think of almost no one who participates online, who isn't better than most people who don't participate online. Maybe it's an issue of averages, and at the edges this is true - that the average "superstar" spends less time online, but that the average "OK" person does spend time online. But I can certainly say, the silent majority of programmers, the ones who don't take part in anything except just focusing on their work, are almost always worse. I've seen this time and time and time again.
    - barrkel 13y ago
      Availability heuristic. I think your perspective may be warped by two things: not having worked with excellent engineers in person, and only considering relatively famous devs in your set of people who "participate online" - e.g. you're excluding the denizens of the last 80% of pages on StackOverflow. One of the most capable engineers I've ever worked with is a guy called Yooichi Tagawa. The guy has an incredible appetite for complexity, as well as spooling up on old codebases and new technologies. But you'll find very little by him online, both because he's Japanese and doesn't use English often, and also he's squirrelled away inside Embarcadero, working on Delphi compiler as he's been doing for the past 15 years or so.
      - edanm 13y ago
        "Availability heuristic." It's certainly possible. And there are definitely a great many devs who don't participate online but are brilliant, don't get me wrong. But I still think the average person who does participate online is better than the average person who doesn't. In retrospect, what bothered me was the implication that participating online is detrimental, when I think it's just the opposite, if for no other reason than that people who do participate online tend to care more about programming than people who don't, and are therefore better. Also, availability cuts both ways. Don't think about the amazing devs you've worked with, think of the averages. Trust me, I've worked with people of wildly, wildly varying ability, I know what's out there. Both on the amazing side, and on the "can't code worth a damn" side.
- xmonkee 13y ago
  >so what? I think his target audience here is the {PHP,Java,C++,etc}-sucks crowd. Don't believe you know the global consensus on any technology just because the vocal minority (places like HN) seem to have a consensus. He even closes the article with the following: > Your time may better spent getting in there and trying things rather than reading about what other people think.
  - gwern 13y ago
    > He even closes the article with the following: > >> Your time may better spent getting in there and trying things rather than reading about what other people think. But collectively, those people have spent a lot more time on the technologies, in many more situations, than I have used them or am likely to use them. How am I better off ignoring them and throwing away data? How does listening to them make me worse off? When I was looking at statistics languages, I didn't spend a year trying Stata, a year trying SAS, a year trying Julia, a year trying Matlab, a year trying Panda+Python, a year trying R; I just looked at what people were using and blogging about and opinions on them, and picked R. How would I have been better off ignoring all of the community discussions and picking on my own? What systematic tendency causes the discussions to be literally worse than random noise?
    - dllthomas 13y ago
      The passage you quote doesn't say "worse than random noise", it says "worse than trying it out". I'm not sure that's true but it is a substantially weaker claim.
- coldtea 13y ago
  >But without any way of correcting for this silent majority, or any sort of predictable systematic tendency, so what? We don't know everything? There's a lot of things we don't know, and on most topics we hear from only a small fraction of people, both expert and otherwise. Why is this worth pointing out? Because it tells you that the more vocal people are usually full of BS, and you should take notice of what the silent experts and does-of-stuff practice. Who said there's no way of "correcting for this silent majority"?
  - gwern 13y ago
    > Because it tells you that the more vocal people are usually full of BS How's that? All the more vocal people tell you is that they're... more vocal. Where is the evidence that the more vocal people are correlated with systematically being wrong in a predictable and correctable way? > you should take notice of what the silent experts and does-of-stuff practice. And how do you do that when they are silent? > Who said there's no way of "correcting for this silent majority"? You still haven't given any way.
    - coldtea 13y ago
      >All the more vocal people tell you is that they're... more vocal. Where is the evidence that the more vocal people are correlated with systematically being wrong in a predictable and correctable way? I'm sorry, if you want a verifiable proof with papers and references I don't have one for you. A lot of things in life don't have such proofs. But my empirical experience has been that tons of people with no idea what they are doing are ranting on blogs and tutorials and such, where hardcore programmers I know are silently getting far more impressive shit done. Let's say this: how many of the iOS, the Android or the Windows Phone teams blog, vs those working on the respective platform? >And how do you do that when they are silent? Watch them work, work with them or fucking talk to them. That they don't write blog posts like superstar primadonnas and that they don't give talks at conferences and rant on HN doesn't mean that they are impossible to find or unable to speak when found.
      - gwern 13y ago
jbarrow 13y ago
One place in which this problem was particularly apparent was (is? I haven't kept up with it for a while) the PHP community. PHP gets a bad rap as a terrible language, but a large part of this was the ease of beginning the learning process with PHP; download [X|W|M]AMPP, spin up an Apache instance, and get just dive in. What this led to was a lot of sub-par instruction material from people who didn't have a solid grounding in design principles, or "tutorials" created from people who had little experience. Despite this, there were clearly experts who could "finely craft" PHP applications. Although Facebook may not be the best example, it is the first one that comes to mind.
- girvo 13y ago
  I've worked on huge web applications that were super maintainable and fun to work on, solving pretty interesting problems for multi-billion dollar companies... In PHP. I sometimes want to defend the language, but it does have some terrible parts to it, and a lot of the people that use it aren't software engineers. But a lot of them are, and so I just choose to work with them instead of complaining about it all! On top of that, the latest developments in the language and community have seen some big changes for the better around tooling, best practices, and the like. So I'm firmly of the belief that with the RFC, PSR and Composer/Packagist trio, as well as things like HHVM, we will see things begin to change for the better on this front in the future. Call me Mr Optimistic ;)
mojoe 13y ago
The point that resonated the most with me here was that people need to be given big opportunities to fail without prejudgement, otherwise they'll never build their skillset significantly. Obviously nobody is ever hired in a vacuum, but the takeaway for me was: remember to judge others on their past behaviors, and nothing else.
midas007 13y ago
It's true. I'd label it "indirect knowledge hoarding." But the excuses/reasons are usu. most people are busy or don't feel they'd make good teachers. There has to be an incentive / prioritization by the person to do something about it. Also, some people don't even think they're experienced enough. Maybe useful knowledge transfer via teaching or at least reviewing teaching material.
gaius 13y ago
We see this in the diving community too, there are a bunch of forums where people have prolific arguments, usually about which agency or brand is best, stuff that has been done to death and barely matters anyway. Whereas if you get off the Internet and go to dive sites you will find a ton of friendly people who have a thousand dives and are happy to share real knowledge, who never bother to go on the forums.
jackgavigan 13y ago
As the adage says, empty vessels make the most noise. Or: Those who can, do. Those who can't, talk about it.
netcan 13y ago
There's some sort of point about experts in general which I am not sure exactly how to articulate but I think is relevant. I'm going to try to klutz through it anyway. There are lots of fields where fundamental theories are relatively weak or have poor predictive powers. Macroeconomics, climatology, nutrition etc. Basically, we don't have real Knowledge. We have a bunch of data and a bunch of theories. Some of the theories that aren't very general or aren't very applicable to real life scenarios are predictive but relatively useless. We know that certain nutrients have some importance. We know that restricting caloric intake leads to weight loss. We know that money supply, inflation and other things are linked together in various ways. The theories don't answer the questions we want then to with any kind of certainty. Still, we sometimes need to make decisions and some knowledge is better than none so we go and find experts anyway. There are people who are experts. They're experts in the study and they are aware of our knowledge in the field such as it is. But they don't have real answers because there just aren't useful answers to be had at this point. All of medicine was like this until pretty recently. When Darwin published "The Origin of Species" evolutionary biology came to being as a different kind of field. One where the knowledge was real and the theory predictive. The theory was fundamental and strong. Darwin could make claims & predictions with a lot of confidence. Subsequent biologists could keep making predictions and when new discoveries (like genetics) were made, they were found to be consistent with the predictions of evolutionary biology. In fact, if they hadn't been, a careful researcher would probably assume that the mistake was in their own conclusions, not in Darwins. So if Chimpanzees are closer to humans than to Gorillas, we share common acceptors not shared with Gorillas and the distinction between Humans and Apes (if we want to keep Apes as a category) is morphological (which is allowed by Darwin) rather than one of proximity on a family tree. Darwin was careful. He didn't publish until he was sure. If he didn't been sure we wouldn't have published. There are lots of Darwins in every one of the former type of field. They haven't discovered real Knowledge that can tell them what to do in an economic recession or what people should eat so they shut their mouth and keep looking. They are still experts but their expert opinion is "I dunno." That doesn't register as expertise so we go on to find someone that will explain about Aggregate demand, antinflamatory diets, carbohydrates or something like that. Development methodologies, executive compensation, distributed companies etc. are in the category of things that we don't have real "scientific" knowledge about. Most business-ey knowledge is like that. Now it sounds like I'm bashing people who talk about this stuff and I don't mean to be (hence my disclaimer at the start). I'm just pointing out that our knowledge in different fields is different. Joel Spolsky is very insightful in his essays about the Software industry, for example. But there are certain people that are comfortable with anecdote and generalities and assertions that may turn out to be untrue. There are certain people (like Darwin) who are not. If we're talking about development methodologies, the people we here from are self selected. They are comfortable making grand statements, manifestos and such even though they may be wrong. That's still useful and certainly interesting, but there is a big category of people we aren't hearing from and they are relevant to the discussion.
agumonkey 13y ago
That's why I tried to stop caring about the [current] web and embraced the future by reading mailing list or irc channels of actual projects. Going close to where things actually happens, raw.
programminggeek 13y ago
Everything popular is wrong.
mattmanser 13y ago
This seems wrong to me, and fairly obviously wrong. If you take a group X, a certain percentage Y hang out in newsgroups and blog. He himself was part of that Y for Forth. Why would the percentage Y be significantly different for any given language? The number of bloggers/newsgroup users is like a survey, it's not complete, but it's a very good indicator of how popular a language is. The popularity of a language increases its ease of use by a considerable factor (libraries, help, documentation, etc.). Hence Forth being a language no-one uses today, which actually contradicts his point, rather than illustrating it as he seems to think. Elizabeth Rather was right, there were people doing interesting things with Forth, but there weren't many. And for most of us, that's an important thing to consider when using any tool. That there is a huge number of bloggers looking down their nose at Perl & C++ simply shows there's something wrong with both those languages. It doesn't mean that they're not still useful though, nor does it mean something else solved the problem until a lot of 'I used Go/Rust/Haskell/Whatever to make non-trivial program' posts appear.
- dap 13y ago
  > If you take a group X, a certain percentage Y hang out in newsgroups and blog. He himself was part of that Y for Forth. Why would the percentage Y be significantly different for any given language? There are lots of reasons I can imagine: people trying out newer languages have more reason to talk publicly about what they're doing, since they usually have a vested interest in the growth of that language. Organizations with tight rules on secrecy are often risk-averse in general and less likely to try out new languages. So new languages wind up with users that are more open, and they appear even more active. (I don't know if this is true -- it's just a guess. But your assertion that the percentages would likely be uniform across languages feels unlikely to me.) I'm not sure the argument is that the percentage who hang out in newsgroups and blog is different, anyway, but rather that looking at newsgroup activity and blogs specifically selects out many of the actual experts. This has absolutely been my experience, and one of the most damaging assumptions I see is that surveying blogs and twitter feeds is enough to get a complete understanding of how people use a piece of software and what they think of it.
- FigBug 13y ago
  I don't find this true at all. Lisp for example has tons of people blogging about it for the size of it's user base. Other things like firmware and DSP almost no experts are blogging. There are hobbyist, and that's about it. Or maybe they hang out in completely different circles.

131 points by the_mat 13y ago

gwern 13y ago

But without any way of correcting for this silent majority, or any sort of predictable systematic tendency, so what? We don't know everything? There's a lot of things we don't know, and on most topics we hear from only a small fraction of people, both expert and otherwise. Why is this worth pointing out? (The point of knowing about things like publication biases in science is that they are systematic: once you know about publication bias, you know that estimates are on net, higher than they should be, and this is something you can apply to evaluating science that you read.)

pnathan 13y ago
It's a common argument - "Lots of people use this but don't talk about it! It still matters!". Common Lispers sometimes say that (but we talk a lot. ;-) ) On the other hand, you can't make decisions without data - without discernable activity, it's reasonable to assume a community is dead.
nostrademons 13y ago
But the non-expert bias online is systematic. Time spent participating online is time not spent honing your craft, and so there should be a strong inverse correlation between posting frequency and expertise. There are real, pragmatic ways to correct for this bias and get more useful information out of online forums, too. For example: 1.) Look for people who have a solid, independently-verifiable track record who are now just starting ventures that need publicity. For example, Marc Andreesen had an absolutely awesome weblog in the ~1 year prior to founding Andreesen-Horowitz, but now his comments are largely limited to snarky one-liners and occasionally insightful one-paragraphers. Why? There's no incentive for him to spread his knowledge around the general public; his firm already has enough of a reputation to draw the top potential founders. The entrepreneurs he funds get his advice, but everybody else has to make due with occasional soundbites. 2.) Look for people who post only brief, offhand comments, but then follow up on those comments and do the research yourself. Many "silent experts" may have time in between compile breaks to throw in a throwaway comment or correction, but they don't have time to write a long missive. However, if you follow-up yourself and do a bit of Googling, you can take their clues and learn what they were talking about. This is how I found out about Haskell, it's how I found out about writing scalable event-driven servers, and it's how I found out about writing multi-language systems where a scripting language is embedded inside a larger program. 3.) Look for people who can see & acknowledge both sides of an issue. Practical experience teaches you about trade-offs, it teaches you about alternatives, and it teaches you that there are often multiple solutions and oftentimes you need to give up some desirable properties to get others. Blog posts by Internet Fanboyz teach you that there is One True Way Of Doing Everything that will solve all your problems, because that is the only way they've ever encountered. 4.) Similarly, look for people who stay out of flamewars. Folks with real jobs who care about their craft don't have time for that shit, because becoming an expert takes a lot of time. So the folks who do have time for that shit are generally either folks without jobs or folks who blow off their jobs to score points on the Internet. 5.) And perhaps most effectively - work directly with an expert. Start contributing to open-source and understand why the maintainers make the choices they do. Take a job at a well-respected company. Work with the gruff neckbeard at your employer. When experienced programmers have to clean up the messes you make, they have a very strong vested interest in not letting you make any messes.
- edanm 13y ago
  "Time spent participating online is time not spent honing your craft, and so there should be a strong inverse correlation between posting frequency and expertise." Anecdotally, this is absolutely wrong. I can think of almost no one who participates online, who isn't better than most people who don't participate online. Maybe it's an issue of averages, and at the edges this is true - that the average "superstar" spends less time online, but that the average "OK" person does spend time online. But I can certainly say, the silent majority of programmers, the ones who don't take part in anything except just focusing on their work, are almost always worse. I've seen this time and time and time again.
  - barrkel 13y ago
    Availability heuristic. I think your perspective may be warped by two things: not having worked with excellent engineers in person, and only considering relatively famous devs in your set of people who "participate online" - e.g. you're excluding the denizens of the last 80% of pages on StackOverflow. One of the most capable engineers I've ever worked with is a guy called Yooichi Tagawa. The guy has an incredible appetite for complexity, as well as spooling up on old codebases and new technologies. But you'll find very little by him online, both because he's Japanese and doesn't use English often, and also he's squirrelled away inside Embarcadero, working on Delphi compiler as he's been doing for the past 15 years or so.
    - edanm 13y ago
      "Availability heuristic." It's certainly possible. And there are definitely a great many devs who don't participate online but are brilliant, don't get me wrong. But I still think the average person who does participate online is better than the average person who doesn't. In retrospect, what bothered me was the implication that participating online is detrimental, when I think it's just the opposite, if for no other reason than that people who do participate online tend to care more about programming than people who don't, and are therefore better. Also, availability cuts both ways. Don't think about the amazing devs you've worked with, think of the averages. Trust me, I've worked with people of wildly, wildly varying ability, I know what's out there. Both on the amazing side, and on the "can't code worth a damn" side.
xmonkee 13y ago
>so what? I think his target audience here is the {PHP,Java,C++,etc}-sucks crowd. Don't believe you know the global consensus on any technology just because the vocal minority (places like HN) seem to have a consensus. He even closes the article with the following: > Your time may better spent getting in there and trying things rather than reading about what other people think.
- gwern 13y ago
  > He even closes the article with the following: > >> Your time may better spent getting in there and trying things rather than reading about what other people think. But collectively, those people have spent a lot more time on the technologies, in many more situations, than I have used them or am likely to use them. How am I better off ignoring them and throwing away data? How does listening to them make me worse off? When I was looking at statistics languages, I didn't spend a year trying Stata, a year trying SAS, a year trying Julia, a year trying Matlab, a year trying Panda+Python, a year trying R; I just looked at what people were using and blogging about and opinions on them, and picked R. How would I have been better off ignoring all of the community discussions and picking on my own? What systematic tendency causes the discussions to be literally worse than random noise?
  - dllthomas 13y ago
    The passage you quote doesn't say "worse than random noise", it says "worse than trying it out". I'm not sure that's true but it is a substantially weaker claim.
coldtea 13y ago
>But without any way of correcting for this silent majority, or any sort of predictable systematic tendency, so what? We don't know everything? There's a lot of things we don't know, and on most topics we hear from only a small fraction of people, both expert and otherwise. Why is this worth pointing out? Because it tells you that the more vocal people are usually full of BS, and you should take notice of what the silent experts and does-of-stuff practice. Who said there's no way of "correcting for this silent majority"?
- gwern 13y ago
  > Because it tells you that the more vocal people are usually full of BS How's that? All the more vocal people tell you is that they're... more vocal. Where is the evidence that the more vocal people are correlated with systematically being wrong in a predictable and correctable way? > you should take notice of what the silent experts and does-of-stuff practice. And how do you do that when they are silent? > Who said there's no way of "correcting for this silent majority"? You still haven't given any way.
  - coldtea 13y ago
    >All the more vocal people tell you is that they're... more vocal. Where is the evidence that the more vocal people are correlated with systematically being wrong in a predictable and correctable way? I'm sorry, if you want a verifiable proof with papers and references I don't have one for you. A lot of things in life don't have such proofs. But my empirical experience has been that tons of people with no idea what they are doing are ranting on blogs and tutorials and such, where hardcore programmers I know are silently getting far more impressive shit done. Let's say this: how many of the iOS, the Android or the Windows Phone teams blog, vs those working on the respective platform? >And how do you do that when they are silent? Watch them work, work with them or fucking talk to them. That they don't write blog posts like superstar primadonnas and that they don't give talks at conferences and rant on HN doesn't mean that they are impossible to find or unable to speak when found.
    - gwern 13y ago

jbarrow 13y ago

One place in which this problem was particularly apparent was (is? I haven't kept up with it for a while) the PHP community. PHP gets a bad rap as a terrible language, but a large part of this was the ease of beginning the learning process with PHP; download [X|W|M]AMPP, spin up an Apache instance, and get just dive in. What this led to was a lot of sub-par instruction material from people who didn't have a solid grounding in design principles, or "tutorials" created from people who had little experience. Despite this, there were clearly experts who could "finely craft" PHP applications. Although Facebook may not be the best example, it is the first one that comes to mind.

girvo 13y ago
I've worked on huge web applications that were super maintainable and fun to work on, solving pretty interesting problems for multi-billion dollar companies... In PHP. I sometimes want to defend the language, but it does have some terrible parts to it, and a lot of the people that use it aren't software engineers. But a lot of them are, and so I just choose to work with them instead of complaining about it all! On top of that, the latest developments in the language and community have seen some big changes for the better around tooling, best practices, and the like. So I'm firmly of the belief that with the RFC, PSR and Composer/Packagist trio, as well as things like HHVM, we will see things begin to change for the better on this front in the future. Call me Mr Optimistic ;)

mojoe 13y ago

The point that resonated the most with me here was that people need to be given big opportunities to fail without prejudgement, otherwise they'll never build their skillset significantly. Obviously nobody is ever hired in a vacuum, but the takeaway for me was: remember to judge others on their past behaviors, and nothing else.

midas007 13y ago

It's true. I'd label it "indirect knowledge hoarding." But the excuses/reasons are usu. most people are busy or don't feel they'd make good teachers. There has to be an incentive / prioritization by the person to do something about it. Also, some people don't even think they're experienced enough. Maybe useful knowledge transfer via teaching or at least reviewing teaching material.

gaius 13y ago

We see this in the diving community too, there are a bunch of forums where people have prolific arguments, usually about which agency or brand is best, stuff that has been done to death and barely matters anyway. Whereas if you get off the Internet and go to dive sites you will find a ton of friendly people who have a thousand dives and are happy to share real knowledge, who never bother to go on the forums.

jackgavigan 13y ago

As the adage says, empty vessels make the most noise. Or: Those who can, do. Those who can't, talk about it.

netcan 13y ago

There's some sort of point about experts in general which I am not sure exactly how to articulate but I think is relevant. I'm going to try to klutz through it anyway. There are lots of fields where fundamental theories are relatively weak or have poor predictive powers. Macroeconomics, climatology, nutrition etc. Basically, we don't have real Knowledge. We have a bunch of data and a bunch of theories. Some of the theories that aren't very general or aren't very applicable to real life scenarios are predictive but relatively useless. We know that certain nutrients have some importance. We know that restricting caloric intake leads to weight loss. We know that money supply, inflation and other things are linked together in various ways. The theories don't answer the questions we want then to with any kind of certainty. Still, we sometimes need to make decisions and some knowledge is better than none so we go and find experts anyway. There are people who are experts. They're experts in the study and they are aware of our knowledge in the field such as it is. But they don't have real answers because there just aren't useful answers to be had at this point. All of medicine was like this until pretty recently. When Darwin published "The Origin of Species" evolutionary biology came to being as a different kind of field. One where the knowledge was real and the theory predictive. The theory was fundamental and strong. Darwin could make claims & predictions with a lot of confidence. Subsequent biologists could keep making predictions and when new discoveries (like genetics) were made, they were found to be consistent with the predictions of evolutionary biology. In fact, if they hadn't been, a careful researcher would probably assume that the mistake was in their own conclusions, not in Darwins. So if Chimpanzees are closer to humans than to Gorillas, we share common acceptors not shared with Gorillas and the distinction between Humans and Apes (if we want to keep Apes as a category) is morphological (which is allowed by Darwin) rather than one of proximity on a family tree. Darwin was careful. He didn't publish until he was sure. If he didn't been sure we wouldn't have published. There are lots of Darwins in every one of the former type of field. They haven't discovered real Knowledge that can tell them what to do in an economic recession or what people should eat so they shut their mouth and keep looking. They are still experts but their expert opinion is "I dunno." That doesn't register as expertise so we go on to find someone that will explain about Aggregate demand, antinflamatory diets, carbohydrates or something like that. Development methodologies, executive compensation, distributed companies etc. are in the category of things that we don't have real "scientific" knowledge about. Most business-ey knowledge is like that. Now it sounds like I'm bashing people who talk about this stuff and I don't mean to be (hence my disclaimer at the start). I'm just pointing out that our knowledge in different fields is different. Joel Spolsky is very insightful in his essays about the Software industry, for example. But there are certain people that are comfortable with anecdote and generalities and assertions that may turn out to be untrue. There are certain people (like Darwin) who are not. If we're talking about development methodologies, the people we here from are self selected. They are comfortable making grand statements, manifestos and such even though they may be wrong. That's still useful and certainly interesting, but there is a big category of people we aren't hearing from and they are relevant to the discussion.

agumonkey 13y ago

That's why I tried to stop caring about the [current] web and embraced the future by reading mailing list or irc channels of actual projects. Going close to where things actually happens, raw.

programminggeek 13y ago

Everything popular is wrong.

mattmanser 13y ago

This seems wrong to me, and fairly obviously wrong. If you take a group X, a certain percentage Y hang out in newsgroups and blog. He himself was part of that Y for Forth. Why would the percentage Y be significantly different for any given language? The number of bloggers/newsgroup users is like a survey, it's not complete, but it's a very good indicator of how popular a language is. The popularity of a language increases its ease of use by a considerable factor (libraries, help, documentation, etc.). Hence Forth being a language no-one uses today, which actually contradicts his point, rather than illustrating it as he seems to think. Elizabeth Rather was right, there were people doing interesting things with Forth, but there weren't many. And for most of us, that's an important thing to consider when using any tool. That there is a huge number of bloggers looking down their nose at Perl & C++ simply shows there's something wrong with both those languages. It doesn't mean that they're not still useful though, nor does it mean something else solved the problem until a lot of 'I used Go/Rust/Haskell/Whatever to make non-trivial program' posts appear.

dap 13y ago
> If you take a group X, a certain percentage Y hang out in newsgroups and blog. He himself was part of that Y for Forth. Why would the percentage Y be significantly different for any given language? There are lots of reasons I can imagine: people trying out newer languages have more reason to talk publicly about what they're doing, since they usually have a vested interest in the growth of that language. Organizations with tight rules on secrecy are often risk-averse in general and less likely to try out new languages. So new languages wind up with users that are more open, and they appear even more active. (I don't know if this is true -- it's just a guess. But your assertion that the percentages would likely be uniform across languages feels unlikely to me.) I'm not sure the argument is that the percentage who hang out in newsgroups and blog is different, anyway, but rather that looking at newsgroup activity and blogs specifically selects out many of the actual experts. This has absolutely been my experience, and one of the most damaging assumptions I see is that surveying blogs and twitter feeds is enough to get a complete understanding of how people use a piece of software and what they think of it.
FigBug 13y ago
I don't find this true at all. Lisp for example has tons of people blogging about it for the size of it's user base. Other things like firmware and DSP almost no experts are blogging. There are hobbyist, and that's about it. Or maybe they hang out in completely different circles.