6 ms·

2013 April-March had a similar hype https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q

fat0wl 13y ago
I think that's the trick with Bitcoin. The price is pretty much solely based on consumer interest. People get mad when I call it a scheme (they claim to be all hyped on tech & I'm not). Look the tech is fine (digital currency) but the way they set it up all pump-and-dump with diminishing returns is messy. That whole "deflationary" scheme or whatever they call it to make it sound like an economist would approve of it really just turns the whole thing into "Bitcoin is great as long as you can find a sucker to buy it when it's time to dump it". Terrible as a currency and even if you gain it will be at someone else's loss. This guy's numbers aren't perfect but the article shows some key points about how the Bitcoin ecosystems numbers are kinda made up and the ecosystem is flawed as a trading platform (which is all it really is now). http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/ http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-...
- tlrobinson 13y ago
  Two points: 1) Regarding volatility, I compare Bitcoin to what would happen if a small startup were publicly traded - of course it's going to be volatile. Over time the bubbles will get less bubbly and the price will smooth out. This is already happening, even if it doesn't seem like it. 2) Bitcoin is not just a currency, it's a distributed ledger which can be used to track ownership of any virtual or even physical property, including other currencies. There are a number of people working on these layers on top of Bitcoin already. Eventually you'll be able to get some of the advantages of Bitcoin-the-distributed-ledger without being exposed to Bitcoin-the-currency (expect perhaps for transaction fees).
- mrb 13y ago
  "if you gain it will be at someone else's loss" With a perfectly deflationary currency, this is false. And the yearly average Bitcoin exchange rate has shown to be perfectly deflationary, so far. And this can go on forever as long as the gross product of the Bitcoin economy grows (even slightly) year after year. In other words: if everyone who bought bitcoins averaged their buys over one year, and held them for at least one year, they would have made money: - the average price of a Bitcoin in 2010 was $0.05 (order of magnitude) - the average price of a bitcoin in 2011 was $5 (order of magnitude) - the average price of a bitcoin in 2012 was $10 (order of magnitude) - the average price of a bitcoin in 2013 was $100 (order of magnitude)
  - fat0wl 13y ago
    if bitcoin were such a great currency mofos like u wouldn't have to constantly compare it to USD just to figure out how much it's supposedly worth. If i sold you a magic rock and told you it's value would be multiplied by 10 every year you'd fk me with a splintered baseball bat. yet this is bitcoin, so people believe because... well because they've wasted so much damn time and money setting up server rigs to solve contrived hash equations. real currencies don't have to incentivize/trick their user-base in order to grow
    - mrb 13y ago
      Watch your mouth! I will not tolerate insults. To answer your ramblings: you are wrong, currencies have to be compared to other currencies to estimate their worth. The Euro is compared to the US dollar. The Japanese Yen is compared to the British Pound. Etc. So it is normal to compare Bitcoin to other currencies. The "contrived hash equations" are necessary to make it decentralized, which is the greatest property that Bitcoin has over other currencies. If you don't understand why decentralization is important, I suggest reading: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7798/decentralization-key-to-bitcoins-success/ http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7798/decentralization-key-to-bitc...
      - fat0wl 13y ago
        tolerate it -- http://www.phauna.org/papers/freecoin/freecoin.pdf http://www.phauna.org/papers/freecoin/freecoin.pdf i hope the next bitcoin scammer who tries to change my mind doesn't send me to "Bitcoin Magazine". That's like Amway convincing you they're legit by sending you to the company site. Plus I have no issue with the decentralized aspect & some of the finer points of digital currency. It's just that this wild value swing is absolutely not a sign of Bitcoin's success. It's utter failure.
      - ars_technician 13y ago
        >To answer your ramblings: you are wrong, currencies have to be compared to other currencies to estimate their worth. The Euro is compared to the US dollar. The Japanese Yen is compared to the British Pound. Etc. So it is normal to compare Bitcoin to other currencies. No it's not. As a user of a currency, you should have to compare it to other currencies to know how much it's worth. You know how much it's worth by what goods and services it buys you. Don't believe me? Next time ask someone on the street how many Japanese Yen a USD is worth. Unless they frequent Japan or trade currencies, they will have no clue. The fact that a value of bitcoin has to be derived from an exchange rate means it's not a good currency yet, it's just a speculative financial investment.
- mattm 13y ago
  It's interesting that you call bitcoin a scheme and yet you're using the argument from someone who says he is putting all his savings into bitcoin - http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-saving...
  - fat0wl 13y ago
    yea well of course... the early adopters want to convince the whole world to buy bitcoin, they just have to make that dare seem convincing. Hope for his sake he takes his money out before the bitcoin apocalypse hits
    - kingkong 13y ago
      Very good tips, just make sure to cashout some first and then let the rest ride the wave! Thank you Bitcoins!!
      - fat0wl 13y ago
        yea man there is certainly money to be made in it i'm not denying that (though i DO believe the value may crash soon... the recent upswing is a simple bidding war because of new markets & publicity). personally i won't buy any because i think it's immoral but if you don't have qualms like that sure go for it just PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't spend significant time/energy on it & pretend to everyone that you are some sort of economist because you read the lit on "bitcoinhypesite.com". learn guitar instead, and don't play acoustic at parties. play electric, in your basement & unleash it when you're a demon at it
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]

fat0wl 13y ago

I think that's the trick with Bitcoin. The price is pretty much solely based on consumer interest. People get mad when I call it a scheme (they claim to be all hyped on tech & I'm not). Look the tech is fine (digital currency) but the way they set it up all pump-and-dump with diminishing returns is messy. That whole "deflationary" scheme or whatever they call it to make it sound like an economist would approve of it really just turns the whole thing into "Bitcoin is great as long as you can find a sucker to buy it when it's time to dump it". Terrible as a currency and even if you gain it will be at someone else's loss. This guy's numbers aren't perfect but the article shows some key points about how the Bitcoin ecosystems numbers are kinda made up and the ecosystem is flawed as a trading platform (which is all it really is now). http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/ http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-...

tlrobinson 13y ago
Two points: 1) Regarding volatility, I compare Bitcoin to what would happen if a small startup were publicly traded - of course it's going to be volatile. Over time the bubbles will get less bubbly and the price will smooth out. This is already happening, even if it doesn't seem like it. 2) Bitcoin is not just a currency, it's a distributed ledger which can be used to track ownership of any virtual or even physical property, including other currencies. There are a number of people working on these layers on top of Bitcoin already. Eventually you'll be able to get some of the advantages of Bitcoin-the-distributed-ledger without being exposed to Bitcoin-the-currency (expect perhaps for transaction fees).
mrb 13y ago
"if you gain it will be at someone else's loss" With a perfectly deflationary currency, this is false. And the yearly average Bitcoin exchange rate has shown to be perfectly deflationary, so far. And this can go on forever as long as the gross product of the Bitcoin economy grows (even slightly) year after year. In other words: if everyone who bought bitcoins averaged their buys over one year, and held them for at least one year, they would have made money: - the average price of a Bitcoin in 2010 was $0.05 (order of magnitude) - the average price of a bitcoin in 2011 was $5 (order of magnitude) - the average price of a bitcoin in 2012 was $10 (order of magnitude) - the average price of a bitcoin in 2013 was $100 (order of magnitude)
- fat0wl 13y ago
  if bitcoin were such a great currency mofos like u wouldn't have to constantly compare it to USD just to figure out how much it's supposedly worth. If i sold you a magic rock and told you it's value would be multiplied by 10 every year you'd fk me with a splintered baseball bat. yet this is bitcoin, so people believe because... well because they've wasted so much damn time and money setting up server rigs to solve contrived hash equations. real currencies don't have to incentivize/trick their user-base in order to grow
  - mrb 13y ago
    Watch your mouth! I will not tolerate insults. To answer your ramblings: you are wrong, currencies have to be compared to other currencies to estimate their worth. The Euro is compared to the US dollar. The Japanese Yen is compared to the British Pound. Etc. So it is normal to compare Bitcoin to other currencies. The "contrived hash equations" are necessary to make it decentralized, which is the greatest property that Bitcoin has over other currencies. If you don't understand why decentralization is important, I suggest reading: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7798/decentralization-key-to-bitcoins-success/ http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7798/decentralization-key-to-bitc...
    - fat0wl 13y ago
      tolerate it -- http://www.phauna.org/papers/freecoin/freecoin.pdf http://www.phauna.org/papers/freecoin/freecoin.pdf i hope the next bitcoin scammer who tries to change my mind doesn't send me to "Bitcoin Magazine". That's like Amway convincing you they're legit by sending you to the company site. Plus I have no issue with the decentralized aspect & some of the finer points of digital currency. It's just that this wild value swing is absolutely not a sign of Bitcoin's success. It's utter failure.
    - ars_technician 13y ago
      >To answer your ramblings: you are wrong, currencies have to be compared to other currencies to estimate their worth. The Euro is compared to the US dollar. The Japanese Yen is compared to the British Pound. Etc. So it is normal to compare Bitcoin to other currencies. No it's not. As a user of a currency, you should have to compare it to other currencies to know how much it's worth. You know how much it's worth by what goods and services it buys you. Don't believe me? Next time ask someone on the street how many Japanese Yen a USD is worth. Unless they frequent Japan or trade currencies, they will have no clue. The fact that a value of bitcoin has to be derived from an exchange rate means it's not a good currency yet, it's just a speculative financial investment.
mattm 13y ago
It's interesting that you call bitcoin a scheme and yet you're using the argument from someone who says he is putting all his savings into bitcoin - http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-saving...
- fat0wl 13y ago
  yea well of course... the early adopters want to convince the whole world to buy bitcoin, they just have to make that dare seem convincing. Hope for his sake he takes his money out before the bitcoin apocalypse hits
  - kingkong 13y ago
    Very good tips, just make sure to cashout some first and then let the rest ride the wave! Thank you Bitcoins!!
    - fat0wl 13y ago
      yea man there is certainly money to be made in it i'm not denying that (though i DO believe the value may crash soon... the recent upswing is a simple bidding war because of new markets & publicity). personally i won't buy any because i think it's immoral but if you don't have qualms like that sure go for it just PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't spend significant time/energy on it & pretend to everyone that you are some sort of economist because you read the lit on "bitcoinhypesite.com". learn guitar instead, and don't play acoustic at parties. play electric, in your basement & unleash it when you're a demon at it

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]