5 ms·

This article isn't some "2012" doomsday nonsense. This is a real and pressing concern, indeed has been a concern for decades.

benihana 13y ago
Just like the global food shortage that Malthusians assured us was bound to happen, the ozone layer fading away and UV rays destroying us all, Y2K breaking every computer on the planet. This time it's for real. This time, technology and human ingenuity isn't going to save us.
- mildtrepidation 13y ago
  And whether this is "the big one" or not, with this attitude, we'll never be ready for anything that actually does go seriously wrong. "It hasn't happened before, so it can't happen now" makes for nothing but a great epitaph.
- DennisP 13y ago
  The ozone layer survives because people caught it in time and banned the chemicals causing the problem. We could do the same thing with antibiotic overuse and it would indeed prevent disaster. That's pretty much what every article about the problem advocates, explicitly or implicitly. Well that, and funding more research on new antibiotics, which we're not doing much of right now. Just waving our hands and trusting to the magic of technology and ingenuity isn't going to get us out of this. We have to actually do something about it.
- mkr-hn 13y ago
  > Just like the global food shortage that Malthusians assured us was bound to happen, How many times can we get lucky with rapid, unforeseen advances in technology? > the ozone layer fading away and UV rays destroying us all, Avoided by being proactive > Y2K breaking every computer on the planet. Avoided by being proactive
  - Aaronontheweb 13y ago
    "How many times can we get lucky with rapid, unforeseen advances in technology?" An infinite number of times. There's no "luck" to it - there are people actively searching for solutions to this shit so we don't end up dead.
    - bct 13y ago
      There is absolutely luck, it's in the timing. The Green Revolution happened to arrive before we hit Malthusian limits, but that wasn't guaranteed. If an asteroid is going to strike tomorrow the only solutions that matter are the ones that are economically and technically feasible today.
- bct 13y ago
  There's no law of nature that says technological advance will solve every problem in time. There are many examples of societies that destroyed themselves.
- arjie 13y ago
  There is a story: A man is walking to a village when he falls into a puddle of quicksand. His attempts to escape are futile and he is nearly about to die when a farmer happens by and hauls him out. The farmer tells him that he should watch out for that puddle. The man suggests placing a sign there to warn travellers, to which the farmer remarks, "Oh, we had one. But no one was falling in, so we took it away.". About the ozone layer: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_Convention_for_the_Protection_of_the_Ozone_Layer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_Convention_for_the_Prot... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol How quickly we forget the lessons of the past!
  - TillE 13y ago
    I'm struggling to understand how anyone could possibly be aware that there was a threat to the ozone layer, but also think that it magically solved itself. The catalyst action of CFCs is not remotely controversial, no more than the IR absorption spectrum of CO2. Whether it's environmental disasters or internet social media activities, there's an interesting bias towards thinking that the status quo is stable, just because it's been that way for a few years. Stuff changes. Take a step back and actually look at the whole picture.
    - refurb 13y ago
      The ozone layer healed itself despite the fact the Chinese continued to produce and release MASSIVE amounts of CFCs after the signing of the Montreal Accord in 1987. It wasn't until 2007 or so until they stopped. However, the layer stopped thinning in 1997 [1]. Interesting no? [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/27/environment-china-environment-cfc-dc-idUSPEK24608020070627 http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/27/environment-china-...
      - DennisP 13y ago
        Your article does not say that China was producing such massive quantities of CFCs that the efforts of all other signatories to the treaty were negated. What your article does say: > Scientists largely credit the Montreal Protocol, signed by about 150 countries, with reversing the depletion of the ozone layer
- Houshalter 13y ago
  These are cherry picked examples or anything. Besides some things actually get done in the expectation of a disaster (like banning ozone destroying chemicals or fixing Y2K bugs.) Even in the current article, no one is saying this is going to happen for sure, just that it could if we don't do anything about it or invest in new antibiotics.

benihana 13y ago

Just like the global food shortage that Malthusians assured us was bound to happen, the ozone layer fading away and UV rays destroying us all, Y2K breaking every computer on the planet. This time it's for real. This time, technology and human ingenuity isn't going to save us.

mildtrepidation 13y ago
And whether this is "the big one" or not, with this attitude, we'll never be ready for anything that actually does go seriously wrong. "It hasn't happened before, so it can't happen now" makes for nothing but a great epitaph.
DennisP 13y ago
The ozone layer survives because people caught it in time and banned the chemicals causing the problem. We could do the same thing with antibiotic overuse and it would indeed prevent disaster. That's pretty much what every article about the problem advocates, explicitly or implicitly. Well that, and funding more research on new antibiotics, which we're not doing much of right now. Just waving our hands and trusting to the magic of technology and ingenuity isn't going to get us out of this. We have to actually do something about it.
mkr-hn 13y ago
> Just like the global food shortage that Malthusians assured us was bound to happen, How many times can we get lucky with rapid, unforeseen advances in technology? > the ozone layer fading away and UV rays destroying us all, Avoided by being proactive > Y2K breaking every computer on the planet. Avoided by being proactive
- Aaronontheweb 13y ago
  "How many times can we get lucky with rapid, unforeseen advances in technology?" An infinite number of times. There's no "luck" to it - there are people actively searching for solutions to this shit so we don't end up dead.
  - bct 13y ago
    There is absolutely luck, it's in the timing. The Green Revolution happened to arrive before we hit Malthusian limits, but that wasn't guaranteed. If an asteroid is going to strike tomorrow the only solutions that matter are the ones that are economically and technically feasible today.
bct 13y ago
There's no law of nature that says technological advance will solve every problem in time. There are many examples of societies that destroyed themselves.
arjie 13y ago
There is a story: A man is walking to a village when he falls into a puddle of quicksand. His attempts to escape are futile and he is nearly about to die when a farmer happens by and hauls him out. The farmer tells him that he should watch out for that puddle. The man suggests placing a sign there to warn travellers, to which the farmer remarks, "Oh, we had one. But no one was falling in, so we took it away.". About the ozone layer: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_Convention_for_the_Protection_of_the_Ozone_Layer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_Convention_for_the_Prot... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol How quickly we forget the lessons of the past!
- TillE 13y ago
  I'm struggling to understand how anyone could possibly be aware that there was a threat to the ozone layer, but also think that it magically solved itself. The catalyst action of CFCs is not remotely controversial, no more than the IR absorption spectrum of CO2. Whether it's environmental disasters or internet social media activities, there's an interesting bias towards thinking that the status quo is stable, just because it's been that way for a few years. Stuff changes. Take a step back and actually look at the whole picture.
  - refurb 13y ago
    The ozone layer healed itself despite the fact the Chinese continued to produce and release MASSIVE amounts of CFCs after the signing of the Montreal Accord in 1987. It wasn't until 2007 or so until they stopped. However, the layer stopped thinning in 1997 [1]. Interesting no? [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/27/environment-china-environment-cfc-dc-idUSPEK24608020070627 http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/27/environment-china-...
    - DennisP 13y ago
      Your article does not say that China was producing such massive quantities of CFCs that the efforts of all other signatories to the treaty were negated. What your article does say: > Scientists largely credit the Montreal Protocol, signed by about 150 countries, with reversing the depletion of the ozone layer
Houshalter 13y ago
These are cherry picked examples or anything. Besides some things actually get done in the expectation of a disaster (like banning ozone destroying chemicals or fixing Y2K bugs.) Even in the current article, no one is saying this is going to happen for sure, just that it could if we don't do anything about it or invest in new antibiotics.