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I have a similar script running and observed the same thing. Yesterday I thought that they were well on track towards making the goal, but it seems that the one

by JDShu 13y ago

I have a similar script running and observed the same thing. Yesterday I thought that they were well on track towards making the goal, but it seems that the one day only deal heavily skewed pledges towards the first day compared to the average crowdfunded project: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-duration http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-durati... Based on the %time vs %backing chart, the second day usually secures around the same amount of funding as the first day. However in the case of the Ubuntu Edge, it received above average percentage backing on the first day, but has already hit the trough.

twoodfin 13y ago
The $600 vs. $830 funding levels seem like a really bad move. It gave their most enthusiastic supporters a chance to give them less money, which is the opposite of what you'd typically want. And for the next month, everyone who visits the project will feel like they're getting screwed out of $230 by not having been one of the early funders.
- seferphier 13y ago
  i feel that 600 is a good deal but 830 is way to steep.
- JaggedJax 13y ago
  You're right about the first part, but they've removed the $600 level from the page since it's over, so people coming for the first time won't be able to compare it like that. $830 is still steep for a phone though, even a nice one.
  - whyaduck 13y ago
    If they don't do their research they won't be aware that they missed the lower price point. So how large is the set of people who want a Ubuntu powered smart phone for $830, but who don't do a simple search before buying?
- Robin_Message 13y ago
  Yeah, a $700-800 phone and a $800-1000 limited edition founders pack (phone plus some recognition) would have made more sense and been revenue neutral. I looked at it, was interested but not sure. Now the $600 is sold out, I feel lees likely to buy one, even though that is partly irrational (I should just evaluate whether it is worth $830 to me, not be upset I missed out on the cheaper one).
- josh2600 13y ago
  Personally, I don't think Ubuntu actually wants the $32M. Remember, Mark specifically says that most manufacturers won't take you seriously unless you order 100,000 units. At $600 per phone, that's only 53k units (the volumes look worse at $830 per phone). They can't actually manufacture the phone as described for $32M. So, this is, IMHO, a publicity stunt intended to get carriers interested in Ubuntu phone, and it probably was quite successful.
  - storborg 13y ago
    $600 per phone is the price, not the manufacturing cost.
    - josh2600 13y ago
      Chances are, with a volume of less than 100k units, and with the Bill of Materials they're generating, I would be surprised if the cost of the phone were under $600. It's possible, but unlikely. I would wager that they can't even buy RAM directly from Samsung without an order over 100k units. So yeah, maybe $600 per phone is high, but maybe not. They're talking about a serious bill of materials, and although they're economizing on the CMOS and the LCD for the screen, I don't think that will reduce the cost much. The sapphire screen and the single-cut shell are both significant cost structures. It's fun to argue about unknowable things, but given that (I assume) neither of us works for Canonical, I think the answer is probably that you're right. It would be hard for that phone to cost $600, but it won't be cheap.
  - sz4kerto 13y ago
    It is, at least that was hinted by an Ubuntu team member, here: http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_canonical_az_ubuntu_edge_telefon_piacra_dobasahoz#comment-1625092 http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_... Rough translation of the first sentence ("Ennek az akciónak elsősorban az a célja, hogy az Ubuntu híre még jobban eljusson az átlagemberekhez."): The aim of this move is to raise awareness about Ubuntu among average users.
  - dwild 13y ago
    Quite successful? They got about 6500 preorders for a phone with better specs than anything on the market currently, for less than most of them. A publicity stunt to get people interested on Ubuntu phone maybe, but I doubt that theses numbers are good for carriers...
- smacktoward 13y ago
  But since the $600 level was only available for one day, it served as a push to get those enthusiastic supporters to get into the pool right away instead of wavering back and forth for the next month. If your goal for something like this is PR, you want a big first-day number you can give press to try and gin up a second round of stories about the campaign. So it can be worth it to potentially lose a little on those sales if by doing so you can get more of them into that first-day figure.

by JDShu 13y ago

twoodfin 13y ago

The $600 vs. $830 funding levels seem like a really bad move. It gave their most enthusiastic supporters a chance to give them less money, which is the opposite of what you'd typically want. And for the next month, everyone who visits the project will feel like they're getting screwed out of $230 by not having been one of the early funders.

seferphier 13y ago
i feel that 600 is a good deal but 830 is way to steep.
JaggedJax 13y ago
You're right about the first part, but they've removed the $600 level from the page since it's over, so people coming for the first time won't be able to compare it like that. $830 is still steep for a phone though, even a nice one.
- whyaduck 13y ago
  If they don't do their research they won't be aware that they missed the lower price point. So how large is the set of people who want a Ubuntu powered smart phone for $830, but who don't do a simple search before buying?
Robin_Message 13y ago
Yeah, a $700-800 phone and a $800-1000 limited edition founders pack (phone plus some recognition) would have made more sense and been revenue neutral. I looked at it, was interested but not sure. Now the $600 is sold out, I feel lees likely to buy one, even though that is partly irrational (I should just evaluate whether it is worth $830 to me, not be upset I missed out on the cheaper one).
josh2600 13y ago
Personally, I don't think Ubuntu actually wants the $32M. Remember, Mark specifically says that most manufacturers won't take you seriously unless you order 100,000 units. At $600 per phone, that's only 53k units (the volumes look worse at $830 per phone). They can't actually manufacture the phone as described for $32M. So, this is, IMHO, a publicity stunt intended to get carriers interested in Ubuntu phone, and it probably was quite successful.
- storborg 13y ago
  $600 per phone is the price, not the manufacturing cost.
  - josh2600 13y ago
    Chances are, with a volume of less than 100k units, and with the Bill of Materials they're generating, I would be surprised if the cost of the phone were under $600. It's possible, but unlikely. I would wager that they can't even buy RAM directly from Samsung without an order over 100k units. So yeah, maybe $600 per phone is high, but maybe not. They're talking about a serious bill of materials, and although they're economizing on the CMOS and the LCD for the screen, I don't think that will reduce the cost much. The sapphire screen and the single-cut shell are both significant cost structures. It's fun to argue about unknowable things, but given that (I assume) neither of us works for Canonical, I think the answer is probably that you're right. It would be hard for that phone to cost $600, but it won't be cheap.
- sz4kerto 13y ago
  It is, at least that was hinted by an Ubuntu team member, here: http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_canonical_az_ubuntu_edge_telefon_piacra_dobasahoz#comment-1625092 http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_... Rough translation of the first sentence ("Ennek az akciónak elsősorban az a célja, hogy az Ubuntu híre még jobban eljusson az átlagemberekhez."): The aim of this move is to raise awareness about Ubuntu among average users.
- dwild 13y ago
  Quite successful? They got about 6500 preorders for a phone with better specs than anything on the market currently, for less than most of them. A publicity stunt to get people interested on Ubuntu phone maybe, but I doubt that theses numbers are good for carriers...
smacktoward 13y ago
But since the $600 level was only available for one day, it served as a push to get those enthusiastic supporters to get into the pool right away instead of wavering back and forth for the next month. If your goal for something like this is PR, you want a big first-day number you can give press to try and gin up a second round of stories about the campaign. So it can be worth it to potentially lose a little on those sales if by doing so you can get more of them into that first-day figure.