7 ms·
I think your metrics for concern about potential threats is a little skewed. You seem to be looking at "concern about a potential threat" has having a 1-dimens
by lupatus 13y ago
I think your metrics for concern about potential threats is a little skewed. You seem to be looking at "concern about a potential threat" has having a 1-dimensional score. Yes, there are more instances of death by hammer in the USA in a given year than there are terrorist attacks. But, the terrorist attacks have the potential for much larger impact (see links, below). Consider a 2-dimensional score for threat scenarios where we multiply likelihood of occurrence by potential impact for the following scenarios:
Scenario A:
Bludgeoned to death by a hammer.
Scenario B:
Terrorists recover a missing Cold-war era nuke, and detonate it over Iowa, during the winter. Effects are: nuclear explosion, EMP pulse disrupting power grid and electronics, disruption in home heating and food/medical supplies, downwind radioactive fallout over Chicago, Ohio, Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, New York, Baltimore, DC, etc..
Scoring (pulling these numbers out of my arse for illustration purposes):
Scenario A: 6000 occurrences per year * 1.2 deaths per occurrence = 12000
Scenario B: 0.2 terrorist occurrences per year * (10 million fatalities + ((0.5 fatality / endangered) * 150 million endangered) = 17 million
As you can see, the terrorism is a lot more serious than hammers (or kittens). And, something like the NSA program could catch these potential large-impact events, because there are a lot of realistic and very scary scenarios:
(A short list from some quick duckduckgo-ing)
http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/1002/20130325/deadly-virus-sample-goes-missing-texas-lab.htm http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/1002/20130325/deadly...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ksYDuIuuAE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ksYDuIuuAE
http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-terrorism/loose-nukes/p9549 http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-terrorism/loose-nukes/p9549
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Los-Alamos-can-t-find-two-vials-of-plutonium-2608951.php http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Los-Alamos-can-t-find-two...
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2011/09/usa-lost-tons-nuclear-weapon-uranium http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2011/09/usa-lost-tons-nuclea...
http://www.mentalfloss.com/article/17483/8-nuclear-weapons-us-has-lost http://www.mentalfloss.com/article/17483/8-nuclear-weapons-u...
http://rense.com/general33/mss.htm http://rense.com/general33/mss.htm
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9355413/ns/health-infectious_diseases/t/plague-infected-lab-mice-missing-new-jersey/#.Ucnk7_nOnbM http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9355413/ns/health-infectious_disea...
P.S. Hello, NSA! I'm guessing this comment has gotten caught in some of your filters. I just want to say, keep up the good work. My brother-in-law works at Fort Mead, too.
-Updated for grammar.
- fnordfnordfnord 13y ago>Scenario B: Terrorists recover a missing Cold-war era nuke, and detonate it over Iowa Which nuke?
- mikeash 13y agoPlease, tell me more about this "realistic" scenario. I'm particularly interested in: 1. How terrorists manage to refurbish such an old weapon into working condition again without access to a nuclear weapons plant. 2. How they get it into the country undetected. 3. How they defeat the warhead's PAL. 4. Where they get the rocket capable of launching the warhead into space. 5. How they actually carry out the launch without a bunch of Iowans saying, hey, what are all those crazy terrorists doing with that giant rocket?
- ars 13y agoWhat do you mean undetected? Aren't you saying that we should ignore them and not spend energy looking for them? You have to at least be consistent with your argument.
- mikeash 13y agoThere's a vast gulf between sane monitoring of items coming into the country and the vast surveillance state we are currently discussing.
- ars 13y agoI know. But I thought we are taking about the risks of terrorism, and how it's not really a big problem.
- mikeash 13y agoAnd it's not. Detecting terrorist nukes coming into the country is basically a side-effect of a sane defense policy against other nuclear states, and other nuclear states are quite a large threat.