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Bram Cohen's comment on this story: "The really misleading spin is the claim that mobile is taking over computers. The actual numbers in that report indicated t

by tikhon 13y ago

Bram Cohen's comment on this story: "The really misleading spin is the claim that mobile is taking over computers. The actual numbers in that report indicated that smart mobile has basically killed off dumb mobile, but only had a modest negative impact on regular computers." source: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ui7ak5pz6wi8c5o/bram%20cohen%20on%20mary%20meeker%27s%20misinformation%20and%20on%20mobile%20vs%20desktop%20usage.png https://www.dropbox.com/s/ui7ak5pz6wi8c5o/bram%20cohen%20on%... also hat tip to falon for finding this story -- i don't know her HN username

Ologn 13y ago
Well for the one top ten web site that has open web logs, mobile traffic does seem to be taking off at the expense of desktops - http://www.vartmp.com/blog/2013/04/16 http://www.vartmp.com/blog/2013/04/16
- asperous 13y ago
  Wikipedia might be a weird source to get that data, since people are more likely to "quickly check wikipedia" on their phone instead of a computer, while most sites people just browse may be uneffected. More data needed.
  - whatusername 13y ago
    Conversely some people might be more likely to do in-depth research into a subject on wikipedia on a desktop than ever on a mobile phone. Agree on the more data needed.
- wildwood 13y ago
  This is a percentage chart, which only shows that mobile traffic is eating into desktops' _share_ of the total traffic. This chart says nothing about whether mobile is eating into the absolute traffic that desktops are getting. More likely mobile traffic is increasing a lot, and desktop is holding steady.
  - integraton 13y ago
    Correct. A cursory glance at the data used for that graph http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports shows that desktop traffic has actually increased significantly in that time period (+ 25ish% for both windows and mac). For example: Feb 2012: http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2012-02/SquidReportOperatingSystems.htm http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2012-02/Squ... Feb 2013: http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2013-02/SquidReportOperatingSystems.htm http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2013-02/Squ...
    - peloton 13y ago
      FWIW, I have first party analytics data on a top 50 online site and this was the trend we saw too. Can't remember if there were any meaningful trends in time spent though (meaning, if desktop was losing to mobile on a time spent basis).
gruseom 13y ago
smart mobile has basically killed off dumb mobile, but only had a modest negative impact on regular computers I find that fascinating and have not heard it stated so clearly before. Is it true? Has anyone else been making this point?
Zigurd 13y ago
The Asymco chart that the Mary Meeker report uses shows that smart mobile is in fact tearing it up in terms of market share. It can also be technically correct that the "negative" impact on desktop is "small" if you take "negative" to mean "shrinking revenue" instead of "shrinking market share" and you factor in doubts about Windows 8 to account for some stagnation in desktop/laptop PCs.

by tikhon 13y ago

Ologn 13y ago

Well for the one top ten web site that has open web logs, mobile traffic does seem to be taking off at the expense of desktops - http://www.vartmp.com/blog/2013/04/16 http://www.vartmp.com/blog/2013/04/16

asperous 13y ago
Wikipedia might be a weird source to get that data, since people are more likely to "quickly check wikipedia" on their phone instead of a computer, while most sites people just browse may be uneffected. More data needed.
- whatusername 13y ago
  Conversely some people might be more likely to do in-depth research into a subject on wikipedia on a desktop than ever on a mobile phone. Agree on the more data needed.
wildwood 13y ago
This is a percentage chart, which only shows that mobile traffic is eating into desktops' _share_ of the total traffic. This chart says nothing about whether mobile is eating into the absolute traffic that desktops are getting. More likely mobile traffic is increasing a lot, and desktop is holding steady.
- integraton 13y ago
  Correct. A cursory glance at the data used for that graph http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports shows that desktop traffic has actually increased significantly in that time period (+ 25ish% for both windows and mac). For example: Feb 2012: http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2012-02/SquidReportOperatingSystems.htm http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2012-02/Squ... Feb 2013: http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2013-02/SquidReportOperatingSystems.htm http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2013-02/Squ...
  - peloton 13y ago
    FWIW, I have first party analytics data on a top 50 online site and this was the trend we saw too. Can't remember if there were any meaningful trends in time spent though (meaning, if desktop was losing to mobile on a time spent basis).

gruseom 13y ago

smart mobile has basically killed off dumb mobile, but only had a modest negative impact on regular computers I find that fascinating and have not heard it stated so clearly before. Is it true? Has anyone else been making this point?

Zigurd 13y ago

The Asymco chart that the Mary Meeker report uses shows that smart mobile is in fact tearing it up in terms of market share. It can also be technically correct that the "negative" impact on desktop is "small" if you take "negative" to mean "shrinking revenue" instead of "shrinking market share" and you factor in doubts about Windows 8 to account for some stagnation in desktop/laptop PCs.