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I am a huge pessimist about India. here's why. 1.) Everyone in the thread is ignoring a huge point raised by the author: this is the last biggest bubble we wi

I am a huge pessimist about India. here's why. 1.) Everyone in the thread is ignoring a huge point raised by the author: this is the last biggest bubble we will ever witness in our lifetime (and possibly for many lifetimes) due to a.) unpeg of gold standard b.) shift from farm to factory work c.) shift from one income to two income household d.) machine/software advances and many other factors has produced the greatest economic growth we have ever seen in history. However, due to a.) unsustainable financial gambling b.) wealth growth only in top 1%, mostly through rentier effects c.) robots, automation and artificial intelligence resulting in jobs destruction d.) population slowdown, shift to older demographics the second dip in global economic depression is happening. and will induce so much deflation soon that 99% of the world population will be very very poor. for 3-4 generations. 2.) due to the lack of hygiene/lack of transportation/too many people/bad weather/trash everywhere/homeless everywhere/fecal matters on the streets/too many doctors prescribing antibiotics, resulting in super-resistant viruses, there will be a huge epidemic sooner or later that might wipe out millions of people, and nobody will be able to do anything about it because the crash in the economy. 3.) Growth in IT outsourcing is no more. Foreign investments are down big. There are better countries for companies to invest in that have better infrastructure and speaks better english.

cscurmudgeon 13y ago
There are better countries for companies to invest in that have better infrastructure and speaks better english. You might want to reword that. :) More seriously, I am optimistic because 1) the older generation will die off and 2) almost 50% of the grad students in any top US university are from India. (This includes programs in AI and Robotics. Count me in that too.)
- chailatte 13y ago
  I don't claim to speak good english :) 1.) the young generation is still corrupt and apathetic and spineless 2.) assuming your number is correct (which I doubt), 90% of those students who overpaid for a masters are staying in the US
  - cscurmudgeon 13y ago
    I am curious about this. Other than the US, UK and a few Scandinavian countries, what countries do you think speak English better than India? 1) The younger generation is much much less corrupt. 2) Almost nobody pays for a masters in science and engineering. Those who do startup eventually end up doing it in India. I know a bunch of my friends running profitable startups.
    - chailatte 13y ago
      http://www.ef.com/epi/ http://www.ef.com/epi/ Phillipines Malaysia Singapore Argentina Lots of eastern european countries They all have way better infrastructure than India
      - cscurmudgeon 13y ago
        http://www.tholons.com/TholonsTop100/pdf/Tholons%20Top%20100%202013_Rankings%20and%20Report%20Overview.pdf http://www.tholons.com/TholonsTop100/pdf/Tholons%20Top%20100... Look at those rankings for outsourcing. Also, we should look outside of outsourcing: there is a reason why the top research labs of IBM, MSFT, HP, GE etc have labs in India and not in those countries. More Indians will move out of business process outsourcing and into hard core technology and research outsourcing.
lifeguard 13y ago
That is a pretty outline with no supporting data. China has been very nervous about the Indian economy for some time now.
- chailatte 13y ago
  > China has been very nervous about the Indian economy for some time now. lol right. go to shanghai or hong kong, then go to mumbai, and tell me that with a straight face.
  - lifeguard 13y ago
    check out BRIC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC STRATFOR: "Because India's population will surpass that of China in 2030 or so, even as India's population will get gray at a slower rate than that of China, India may in relative terms have a brighter future. As inefficient as India's democratic system is, it does not face a fundamental problem of legitimacy like China's authoritarian system very well might." -- R. Kaplan http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/india-china-rivalry http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/india-china-rivalry
    - chailatte 13y ago
      China GDP: 8.3T (2012) Brazil GDP: 2.5T (2012) Russia GDP: 2.1T (2012) India GDP: 1.9T (2012) India isn't even in the same league as China. India has to compete with Russia/Brazil. BRIC is an old grouping from years ago. Having a huge population and being democratic doesn't automatically give you a bigger economy. Look at South Korea (1.3T) or Japan (6T) comparatively.
      - lifeguard 13y ago
        China will follow a similar path as the USSR. Dynamic efficiency is not very good in state managed economies. Also, read the CIA world fact book pages for China/India.
        13y ago
ekianjo 13y ago
> 2.) due to the lack of hygiene/lack of transportation/too many people/bad weather/trash everywhere/homeless everywhere/fecal matters on the streets/too many doctors prescribing antibiotics, resulting in super-resistant viruses, there will be a huge epidemic sooner or later that might wipe out millions of people, and nobody will be able to do anything about it because the crash in the economy. Haha. No. Lack of hygiene does not actually result in super resistant viruses. If at all, it results in people who a stronger to existing viruses and bacteria since they are able to live in such conditions. We rather see that tourists going to India tend to fall sick very often because they are not used to the viruses and bacteria there. And lack of hygiene is not something new. We've had lack of hygiene for like millenia in Human Kind history, yet the human race still thrived. I'm not worried about that.
- glesica 13y ago
  He meant that over-prescription of antibiotics will lead to resistant viruses (probably meant bacteria) not that the conditions themselves will lead to such an outcome. Not saying I agree or disagree, just clearing that up.
  - chailatte 13y ago
    India ‘Has Lost’ Superbug War "India has lost the war against the toughest forms of antibiotic resistance, largely because of poor sanitation, unregulated use of antibiotics and an absence of drug resistance monitoring, according to the man who discovered a type of drug resistance in bacteria in New Delhi." http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013/04/23/india-has-lost-superbug-war/ http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013/04/23/india-has-lost...
  - harichinnan 13y ago
    You get cheap "broad spectrum" antibiotics instead of more nuanced and expensive ones in the west.
jalayir 13y ago
Most of the points above are hyperbolic and quite silly, to be frank. For example - "robots, automation and artificial intelligence resulting in jobs destruction" - I suppose just like the personal computer lead to "jobs destruction"?
- sstrudeau 13y ago
  Actually, yes. Just like advances in agricultural technology lead to job destruction in agriculture. We went from a majority of the global human population working in agriculture to a tiny minority in a few centuries. That labor was largely absorbed into industrial manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs have also been destroyed by automation (e.g., why a growing manufacturing sector in the US is not adding new net manufacturing jobs). The service sector has absorbed much of that labor, but on the low end, those jobs tend to be much more poorly paid and stable (which explains no income growth for the bottom 80% of the US population in 30+ years, despite a growing economy). Computers and automation are starting to eliminate service sector jobs as well (and not just on the low end). It isn't clear which "sector" will absorb this new labor unlocked by growing productivity, but it is clear to see how these change can create a growing economy but also growing inequality which can lead to a less pleasant society overall...
kamaal 13y ago
>>Growth in IT outsourcing is no more. Foreign investments are down big. There are better countries for companies to invest in that have better infrastructure and speaks better english. No and I thing you've got it wrong. We are soon hitting a stage where we don't have to depend of foreign investments. Its happening, software is but just one aspect of foreign investments. There is real estate, retail sectors, education, manufacturing, automobile etc. That list can go endless. Nearly every global company today understands if they don't come to India now, the local companies are going to eat their lunch big time and leaving all doors of making a entry later permanently shut. Every time I see somebody good leave India I feel bad for them. They have no clue what they will miss over the next decades. With hardly any competition in a country where demands are rising so rapidly, almost anything you make people want will sell. Even if you make it badly. Consider this with settling down in US, something like next half of your life will simply go in 'getting somewhere'. You will simply going there for your kids. And consider yourself lucky if they value your sacrifices and do something big out of it. Else there will be a situation where post 30 years your kids might want to come to India to settle there kids.
- joonix 13y ago
  I think you overestimate how much people are willing to live in shitty conditions in exchange for business opportunities. The US may not be a boomtown but it has opportunity to live a comfortable life if you can add value. Most people would prefer quality of life + "just getting somewhere" (the American standard) over living in a dump + business opportunities.
  - kamaal 13y ago
    There no 'shitty conditions'. Not by what I perceive and experience. People who opted to stay in India to reap the benefits of the IT boom in the 90's are in something like a million times better conditions than the guys who left to the US in the 90's. If you want to be super rich, this is the time to be in India. And it will be at least for the next half century, there is too much room to grow and there is far little genuine competition.
    - 13y ago
Spooky23 13y ago
You missed the biggest thing IMO -- there isn't much nationalism or national unity. I don't see Indians being particularly proud of India. Some of the smartest people I know are from India and Pakistan. Most of the folks I know came from modest backgrounds, and none of them look back at all.
snowwrestler 13y ago
Every single one of your pessism factors was true in 1932, and we all know how the world economy did after that. The economic potential in genetics, robotics, nanotechnology, nuclear energy, space exporation, etc. are enormous. We just need to keep moving forward. I'm not saying that you're wrong about the negative factors; they are all risks to a better future. I'm just saying that they can be overcome; it's been done before.

cscurmudgeon 13y ago

There are better countries for companies to invest in that have better infrastructure and speaks better english. You might want to reword that. :) More seriously, I am optimistic because 1) the older generation will die off and 2) almost 50% of the grad students in any top US university are from India. (This includes programs in AI and Robotics. Count me in that too.)

chailatte 13y ago
I don't claim to speak good english :) 1.) the young generation is still corrupt and apathetic and spineless 2.) assuming your number is correct (which I doubt), 90% of those students who overpaid for a masters are staying in the US
- cscurmudgeon 13y ago
  I am curious about this. Other than the US, UK and a few Scandinavian countries, what countries do you think speak English better than India? 1) The younger generation is much much less corrupt. 2) Almost nobody pays for a masters in science and engineering. Those who do startup eventually end up doing it in India. I know a bunch of my friends running profitable startups.
  - chailatte 13y ago
    http://www.ef.com/epi/ http://www.ef.com/epi/ Phillipines Malaysia Singapore Argentina Lots of eastern european countries They all have way better infrastructure than India
    - cscurmudgeon 13y ago
      http://www.tholons.com/TholonsTop100/pdf/Tholons%20Top%20100%202013_Rankings%20and%20Report%20Overview.pdf http://www.tholons.com/TholonsTop100/pdf/Tholons%20Top%20100... Look at those rankings for outsourcing. Also, we should look outside of outsourcing: there is a reason why the top research labs of IBM, MSFT, HP, GE etc have labs in India and not in those countries. More Indians will move out of business process outsourcing and into hard core technology and research outsourcing.

lifeguard 13y ago

That is a pretty outline with no supporting data. China has been very nervous about the Indian economy for some time now.

chailatte 13y ago
> China has been very nervous about the Indian economy for some time now. lol right. go to shanghai or hong kong, then go to mumbai, and tell me that with a straight face.
- lifeguard 13y ago
  check out BRIC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC STRATFOR: "Because India's population will surpass that of China in 2030 or so, even as India's population will get gray at a slower rate than that of China, India may in relative terms have a brighter future. As inefficient as India's democratic system is, it does not face a fundamental problem of legitimacy like China's authoritarian system very well might." -- R. Kaplan http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/india-china-rivalry http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/india-china-rivalry
  - chailatte 13y ago
    China GDP: 8.3T (2012) Brazil GDP: 2.5T (2012) Russia GDP: 2.1T (2012) India GDP: 1.9T (2012) India isn't even in the same league as China. India has to compete with Russia/Brazil. BRIC is an old grouping from years ago. Having a huge population and being democratic doesn't automatically give you a bigger economy. Look at South Korea (1.3T) or Japan (6T) comparatively.
    - lifeguard 13y ago
      China will follow a similar path as the USSR. Dynamic efficiency is not very good in state managed economies. Also, read the CIA world fact book pages for China/India.
      - 13y ago

ekianjo 13y ago

> 2.) due to the lack of hygiene/lack of transportation/too many people/bad weather/trash everywhere/homeless everywhere/fecal matters on the streets/too many doctors prescribing antibiotics, resulting in super-resistant viruses, there will be a huge epidemic sooner or later that might wipe out millions of people, and nobody will be able to do anything about it because the crash in the economy. Haha. No. Lack of hygiene does not actually result in super resistant viruses. If at all, it results in people who a stronger to existing viruses and bacteria since they are able to live in such conditions. We rather see that tourists going to India tend to fall sick very often because they are not used to the viruses and bacteria there. And lack of hygiene is not something new. We've had lack of hygiene for like millenia in Human Kind history, yet the human race still thrived. I'm not worried about that.

glesica 13y ago
He meant that over-prescription of antibiotics will lead to resistant viruses (probably meant bacteria) not that the conditions themselves will lead to such an outcome. Not saying I agree or disagree, just clearing that up.
- chailatte 13y ago
  India ‘Has Lost’ Superbug War "India has lost the war against the toughest forms of antibiotic resistance, largely because of poor sanitation, unregulated use of antibiotics and an absence of drug resistance monitoring, according to the man who discovered a type of drug resistance in bacteria in New Delhi." http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013/04/23/india-has-lost-superbug-war/ http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013/04/23/india-has-lost...
- harichinnan 13y ago
  You get cheap "broad spectrum" antibiotics instead of more nuanced and expensive ones in the west.

jalayir 13y ago

Most of the points above are hyperbolic and quite silly, to be frank. For example - "robots, automation and artificial intelligence resulting in jobs destruction" - I suppose just like the personal computer lead to "jobs destruction"?

sstrudeau 13y ago
Actually, yes. Just like advances in agricultural technology lead to job destruction in agriculture. We went from a majority of the global human population working in agriculture to a tiny minority in a few centuries. That labor was largely absorbed into industrial manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs have also been destroyed by automation (e.g., why a growing manufacturing sector in the US is not adding new net manufacturing jobs). The service sector has absorbed much of that labor, but on the low end, those jobs tend to be much more poorly paid and stable (which explains no income growth for the bottom 80% of the US population in 30+ years, despite a growing economy). Computers and automation are starting to eliminate service sector jobs as well (and not just on the low end). It isn't clear which "sector" will absorb this new labor unlocked by growing productivity, but it is clear to see how these change can create a growing economy but also growing inequality which can lead to a less pleasant society overall...

kamaal 13y ago

>>Growth in IT outsourcing is no more. Foreign investments are down big. There are better countries for companies to invest in that have better infrastructure and speaks better english. No and I thing you've got it wrong. We are soon hitting a stage where we don't have to depend of foreign investments. Its happening, software is but just one aspect of foreign investments. There is real estate, retail sectors, education, manufacturing, automobile etc. That list can go endless. Nearly every global company today understands if they don't come to India now, the local companies are going to eat their lunch big time and leaving all doors of making a entry later permanently shut. Every time I see somebody good leave India I feel bad for them. They have no clue what they will miss over the next decades. With hardly any competition in a country where demands are rising so rapidly, almost anything you make people want will sell. Even if you make it badly. Consider this with settling down in US, something like next half of your life will simply go in 'getting somewhere'. You will simply going there for your kids. And consider yourself lucky if they value your sacrifices and do something big out of it. Else there will be a situation where post 30 years your kids might want to come to India to settle there kids.

joonix 13y ago
I think you overestimate how much people are willing to live in shitty conditions in exchange for business opportunities. The US may not be a boomtown but it has opportunity to live a comfortable life if you can add value. Most people would prefer quality of life + "just getting somewhere" (the American standard) over living in a dump + business opportunities.
- kamaal 13y ago
  There no 'shitty conditions'. Not by what I perceive and experience. People who opted to stay in India to reap the benefits of the IT boom in the 90's are in something like a million times better conditions than the guys who left to the US in the 90's. If you want to be super rich, this is the time to be in India. And it will be at least for the next half century, there is too much room to grow and there is far little genuine competition.
  - 13y ago

Spooky23 13y ago

You missed the biggest thing IMO -- there isn't much nationalism or national unity. I don't see Indians being particularly proud of India. Some of the smartest people I know are from India and Pakistan. Most of the folks I know came from modest backgrounds, and none of them look back at all.

snowwrestler 13y ago

Every single one of your pessism factors was true in 1932, and we all know how the world economy did after that. The economic potential in genetics, robotics, nanotechnology, nuclear energy, space exporation, etc. are enormous. We just need to keep moving forward. I'm not saying that you're wrong about the negative factors; they are all risks to a better future. I'm just saying that they can be overcome; it's been done before.