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The truth is they are both right. Technology is accelerating but it is also changing directionally. It is no longer accelerating along a physical axis but inste

by henryl 13y ago

The truth is they are both right. Technology is accelerating but it is also changing directionally. It is no longer accelerating along a physical axis but instead along a virtual one. What Peter Thiel doesn't see is that the virtual curve will be even more transformative than the physical one. Physical technology has had hundreds of thousands of years to evolve but virtual technology will obsolete it in just a few decades. How? The answer starts out looking a little like Angry Birds but probably ends up more like the Holodeck. The issue of measurement IS important. The problem with all of Peter Thiel's metrics is that they are inherently indicators of external activity. The triumph of the virtual curve reveals itself in the only metric that really matters: time. All forms of technology have the same purpose: to optimize the utility obtained during a finite lifespan. Some forms of technology increase the utility per unit time, others simply increase the units of time we have left. Therefore, more and more time spent in virtual space is an indication that virtual technology is out competing the substitutes provided by physical technology. As we go higher up the virtual curve and technology becomes more advanced at fulfilling our emotional and psychological needs by moving bits instead of atoms, eventually physical progress will slow to baseline: literally life support (maybe with gamified life extension projects taking place in virtual land). Alas, the last technology invented by man will not be the singularity, it will be near perfect virtual reality; closer to Angry Birds than Skynet.

eli_gottlieb 13y ago
Therefore, more and more time spent in virtual space is an indication that virtual technology is out competing the substitutes provided by physical technology. I am slamming my head against my desk this is just that dumb. Managing to subvert people's attention spans and dopamine systems to keep them clicking on the orange-red envelope and clicking to the next page does not mean you've actually done anything good for them. It just means you're consuming their attention until they actually leave the site and walk away with that empty feeling of having outright wasted several whole hours of their day. Alas, the last technology invented by man will not be the singularity, it will be near perfect virtual reality; closer to Angry Birds than Skynet. Why? A perfect video game is still just a video game.
- henryl 13y ago
  Please explain why you think reality is inherently better than a virtual reality. edit: By the way, I get the sense that you think this is a grim future. I do too, but I think this is irrational.
  - eli_gottlieb 13y ago
    Please explain why you think reality is inherently better than a virtual reality. Mostly because of an entire youth's raising and training designed to not only enable me to cope with things that don't go away when I stop believing in them, but a whole lot of built-up pride and enjoyment at being able to force reality into my desired shape despite itself. edit: By the way, I get the sense that you think this is a grim future. I do too, but I think this is irrational. Angry Birds? That is grim. In fact, any Matrix-y future based on a video game is grim. Video games are designed to provide some entertainment for real people who are taking a break. Or, sometimes, you get World of Warcraft and the game is just designed to keep you paying and playing. To replace most of life, you need to move away in the solution space, to something that's either far more realistic (the Matrix), or something far less realistic, enough to be a fun way to spend all your time. It's like car-culture: it caters to precise fulfillment of individual preferences, probably in a market structure, at the cost of shared communal life and space people actually enjoy. Actually, for the latter to work I think you'd have to raise a whole new generation of people to whom life without significant external challenges or struggles would be as natural as YOLO and SWAG and neo-feudalism are to Generation Z. Wow, I think I've found what I'm going to lecture children about when I'm elderly. You kids these days and your completely self-designed lifestyles!

by henryl 13y ago

eli_gottlieb 13y ago

Therefore, more and more time spent in virtual space is an indication that virtual technology is out competing the substitutes provided by physical technology. I am slamming my head against my desk this is just that dumb. Managing to subvert people's attention spans and dopamine systems to keep them clicking on the orange-red envelope and clicking to the next page does not mean you've actually done anything good for them. It just means you're consuming their attention until they actually leave the site and walk away with that empty feeling of having outright wasted several whole hours of their day. Alas, the last technology invented by man will not be the singularity, it will be near perfect virtual reality; closer to Angry Birds than Skynet. Why? A perfect video game is still just a video game.

henryl 13y ago
Please explain why you think reality is inherently better than a virtual reality. edit: By the way, I get the sense that you think this is a grim future. I do too, but I think this is irrational.
- eli_gottlieb 13y ago
  Please explain why you think reality is inherently better than a virtual reality. Mostly because of an entire youth's raising and training designed to not only enable me to cope with things that don't go away when I stop believing in them, but a whole lot of built-up pride and enjoyment at being able to force reality into my desired shape despite itself. edit: By the way, I get the sense that you think this is a grim future. I do too, but I think this is irrational. Angry Birds? That is grim. In fact, any Matrix-y future based on a video game is grim. Video games are designed to provide some entertainment for real people who are taking a break. Or, sometimes, you get World of Warcraft and the game is just designed to keep you paying and playing. To replace most of life, you need to move away in the solution space, to something that's either far more realistic (the Matrix), or something far less realistic, enough to be a fun way to spend all your time. It's like car-culture: it caters to precise fulfillment of individual preferences, probably in a market structure, at the cost of shared communal life and space people actually enjoy. Actually, for the latter to work I think you'd have to raise a whole new generation of people to whom life without significant external challenges or struggles would be as natural as YOLO and SWAG and neo-feudalism are to Generation Z. Wow, I think I've found what I'm going to lecture children about when I'm elderly. You kids these days and your completely self-designed lifestyles!