8 ms·

It's booming in some circles, millions a month probably: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling sealswithcl

It's booming in some circles, millions a month probably: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling sealswithclubs.eu should be mentioned here too.

gwern 14y ago
The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you). I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, but they seem to handle sports only.
- carbocation 14y ago
  Thanks for exposing a market opportunity! Sounds promising, in the right jurisdiction.
  - gwern 14y ago
    Yeah. I keep hoping someone will do a bitcoin version of Intrade as a Tor hidden service. It's the logical next step.
- rishimoko 14y ago
  There's also https://icbit.se https://icbit.se for actual futures.
- adam 14y ago
  Prediction markets don't necessarily have to be real currency and it's a misconception that they are only accurate if you're using real money. We have run a prediction market using fantasy currency for years: http://home.inklingmarkets.com http://home.inklingmarkets.com. We also run run private markets for companies...
  - foobarqux 14y ago
    How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
    - adam 14y ago
      Here's a blog post we wrote a few years ago about it: http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-markets-accuracy.html http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-ma...
      - foobarqux 14y ago
        You don't specify when you are sampling the market. It often wouldn't be surprising, or useful, that a market correctly predicts an event the day before it occurs.
  - foobarqux 14y ago
    How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
  - gwern 14y ago
    Of course they don't have to use real money. But if you're happy with playmoney, nothing stops you from, say, just writing down predictions and checking how they ultimately do. (I do just this; great practice and useful in many ways.) However, we shouldn't forget that many people aren't going to contribute their time and expertise without a concrete reward. Nor do I blame them.

It's booming in some circles, millions a month probably: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling sealswithclubs.eu should be mentioned here too.

gwern 14y ago

The problem is that currently the closest thing to a prediction market is Bets of Bitcoin, and they use probably the bizarrest set of rules you have ever had the misfortune to lay eyes on. So.. not really an alternative at all except for the most wildly mispriced bets on it (where you can be sure to come out with a profit regardless of how much the rules screw you). I see the wiki lists 2 other prediction markets, but they seem to handle sports only.

carbocation 14y ago
Thanks for exposing a market opportunity! Sounds promising, in the right jurisdiction.
- gwern 14y ago
  Yeah. I keep hoping someone will do a bitcoin version of Intrade as a Tor hidden service. It's the logical next step.
rishimoko 14y ago
There's also https://icbit.se https://icbit.se for actual futures.
adam 14y ago
Prediction markets don't necessarily have to be real currency and it's a misconception that they are only accurate if you're using real money. We have run a prediction market using fantasy currency for years: http://home.inklingmarkets.com http://home.inklingmarkets.com. We also run run private markets for companies...
- foobarqux 14y ago
  How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
  - adam 14y ago
    Here's a blog post we wrote a few years ago about it: http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-markets-accuracy.html http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-ma...
    - foobarqux 14y ago
      You don't specify when you are sampling the market. It often wouldn't be surprising, or useful, that a market correctly predicts an event the day before it occurs.
- foobarqux 14y ago
  How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
- gwern 14y ago
  Of course they don't have to use real money. But if you're happy with playmoney, nothing stops you from, say, just writing down predictions and checking how they ultimately do. (I do just this; great practice and useful in many ways.) However, we shouldn't forget that many people aren't going to contribute their time and expertise without a concrete reward. Nor do I blame them.