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One of the most ubiquitous and profitable types of models would be short-term weather forecasting. These are regularly wrong by several degrees, misjudging pre
by ironsam 17y ago
One of the most ubiquitous and profitable types of models would be short-term weather forecasting. These are regularly wrong by several degrees, misjudging precipitation, etc, when trying to predict just 12 hours in advance. There's absolutely no point in looking at forecasts greater than three days, they're barely a guess, throw all the "accurate" equations and you want at it.
[Disclaimer: I'm from the midwest - capricious weather.]
- glymor 17y agoWeather and climate forecasting confront different problems. I can't predict the behaviour of a single gas module but I can predict the behaviour of the gas as a whole as the randomness averages out. Climate forecasting is a lot more complex a system but the daily variability, at least, averages out in the same way. (Another analogy some people use is that we can predict that winter is colder than summer even if some days in the season aren't etc. this isn't really an argument for modeling but I suppose it's easy to grasp.)