6 ms·

>Among Americans under 50 without children, 57% said they simply didn’t want kids Your 57% lacks relevance to the current conversation because it is 57% of a s

>Among Americans under 50 without children, 57% said they simply didn’t want kids Your 57% lacks relevance to the current conversation because it is 57% of a small percentage of Americans. 42 to 43% of Americans are either under 18 or a parent of an under-18-yo. Plus of course some outside that group will soon become parents. And some are empty-nesters who prefer to keep on living in the neighborhood they lived in when they were raising their children.

toomuchtodo 4d ago
US total fertility rate is at record lows, and continues to decline. Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rates-hit-another-historical-low-2025-cdc https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rate... https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers... https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-never-want-to-have-children-has-doubled-research-says https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-... https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-2026-state-of-fertility-report https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-... https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fertility-decline https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fer... https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-among-todays-young-women https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-a...
- rayiner 4d ago
  > Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb Desired family size is still 2.7 kids, and has been stable at that number for over 50 years: https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-s... A growing gap between how many kids people want and how many they have militates against copying the dense housing patterns of Asian countries that have the lowest birth rates in the world.
  - toomuchtodo 4d ago
    Desired fertility is like desired Lambos, all that matters is realized fertility. And realized fertility is trending lower globally, as shown by my numerous citations. I’m willing to bet on this if you want, as a demographic scholar. https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-passed-peak-population-and-when-will-the-rest-do-so https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-pass... https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 - August 2026 The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 (400 comments) The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbea597263a88f27075bd6eb49_17385_suerf.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe... - SUERF Policy Note, Issue No 197, October 2020 “Talk is cheap, show me the fertility rate.”
    - rayiner 4d ago
      > Desired fertility is like desired Lambos, all that matters is realized fertility. Sure, people are having less kids because we banned building housing and then filled the housing we have with government subsidized illegal immigrants. What’s your point?
      - toomuchtodo 4d ago
        People are having less kids because women didn’t want them before, they just have the power to not have them now. This is covered extensively in the citations I provided in the comment you replied to. Housing might be a component, but it is not the root cause. Children are a luxury good now, not an extra hand on the farm. ~40% of annual pregnancies in both the US and internationally are unintended (per the Guttmacher Institute and the UN, respectively), so even with fertility rates down in teens and the 21-40 cohort, we still have a long way to go in preventing unwanted pregnancies and children (which translates into a further declining fertility rate curve forward looking, model accordingly). Birthgap - https://youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc https://youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc (two hours, but substantiates every assertion I’ve made, provided as an additional supporting citation) I assist thousands of folks a year seeking permanent birth control obtain it, mostly the childfree but occasionally someone who already has a kid or two, ama; this is the cheapest, easiest win as it relates to avoiding suffering around unwanted children, and the emotional, time, and monetary costs of unwanted children at scale is simply too high. The historical total fertility rate was because women were not educated and empowered; forward looking fertility rate is the true neutral rate.

toomuchtodo 4d ago

US total fertility rate is at record lows, and continues to decline. Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11537490/ https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rates-hit-another-historical-low-2025-cdc https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5777587/teen-birth-rate... https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers.html https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/09/older-mothers... https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-never-want-to-have-children-has-doubled-research-says https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/number-of-americans-who-... https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-2026-state-of-fertility-report https://ifstudies.org/report-brief/the-demographic-dead-end-... https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fertility-decline https://ifstudies.org/blog/theres-no-mystery-to-americas-fer... https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/insights?id=3886 https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-among-todays-young-women https://ifstudies.org/blog/1-in-4-projecting-childlessness-a...

rayiner 4d ago
> Childfree/childless rates are up, and will continue to climb Desired family size is still 2.7 kids, and has been stable at that number for over 50 years: https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-size-remains-above-two-children.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/694640/americans-ideal-family-s... A growing gap between how many kids people want and how many they have militates against copying the dense housing patterns of Asian countries that have the lowest birth rates in the world.
- toomuchtodo 4d ago
  Desired fertility is like desired Lambos, all that matters is realized fertility. And realized fertility is trending lower globally, as shown by my numerous citations. I’m willing to bet on this if you want, as a demographic scholar. https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-passed-peak-population-and-when-will-the-rest-do-so https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-pass... https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 - August 2026 The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 (400 comments) The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbea597263a88f27075bd6eb49_17385_suerf.pdf https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe... - SUERF Policy Note, Issue No 197, October 2020 “Talk is cheap, show me the fertility rate.”
  - rayiner 4d ago
    > Desired fertility is like desired Lambos, all that matters is realized fertility. Sure, people are having less kids because we banned building housing and then filled the housing we have with government subsidized illegal immigrants. What’s your point?
    - toomuchtodo 4d ago
      People are having less kids because women didn’t want them before, they just have the power to not have them now. This is covered extensively in the citations I provided in the comment you replied to. Housing might be a component, but it is not the root cause. Children are a luxury good now, not an extra hand on the farm. ~40% of annual pregnancies in both the US and internationally are unintended (per the Guttmacher Institute and the UN, respectively), so even with fertility rates down in teens and the 21-40 cohort, we still have a long way to go in preventing unwanted pregnancies and children (which translates into a further declining fertility rate curve forward looking, model accordingly). Birthgap - https://youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc https://youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc (two hours, but substantiates every assertion I’ve made, provided as an additional supporting citation) I assist thousands of folks a year seeking permanent birth control obtain it, mostly the childfree but occasionally someone who already has a kid or two, ama; this is the cheapest, easiest win as it relates to avoiding suffering around unwanted children, and the emotional, time, and monetary costs of unwanted children at scale is simply too high. The historical total fertility rate was because women were not educated and empowered; forward looking fertility rate is the true neutral rate.