5 ms·
For the record, I consider that P(dangerously unaligned | AGI from current research) >> 0.01. A more reasonable estimate given, what we know, would be 0.99. Wi
by Sharlin 5d ago
For the record, I consider that P(dangerously unaligned | AGI from current research) >> 0.01. A more reasonable estimate given, what we know, would be 0.99.
With regard to the second probability, P(AGI | current LLM research), it would certainly be overconfidence bordering on arrogance to assign it a value significantly lower than 0.01.
- BobaFloutist 5d agoOnce again, you're writing up nicely formal formulae with zero justification. It's fine to eyeball it and give your gut feeling, but it's disingenuous to present that as probabilistic fact. Edit: Also, you've downgraded your claim from "Extinction event" to "dangerously unaligned"