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> This was the desired effect though Honestly, I think you're giving far too much credit to the current US government.

gizajob 6d ago
It’s a simple calculation though and not talked about enough. USA went to war in Iraq 25 years ago thanks to the oilmen in charge at that time. For all the political bluster about Iran and gas prices, $100 oil makes them hugely more profit than $60 oil. Of course producers and shareholders of American oil companies want that extra free money. They’re not pumping oil out of the ground and keeping it at a low price just to be benevolent to the American consumer.
- toomuchtodo 6d ago
  I think that is a contributor, but the root cause of the Iran war was Netanyahu goading a simple person into it. The US military and intelligence community knew the risk of this, told everyone not to do it, and they did it anyway. (if one is some combination of unsophisticated, irrational, and vain, and in a position of power, they will eventually be exploited by someone more rational and sophisticated, imho)
  - gizajob 6d ago
    That’s correct but it’s multimodal. It might not have been the reason for getting involved in the first place but it does now seem like a reason for something happening every time the oil price starts to drop again.
    - toomuchtodo 6d ago
      Strongly agree, there's alway nuance and complexity.
  - wombat-man 6d ago
    I don't even really understand Israel's game plan here. Iran took a lot of damage but now they control the strait, they have a lot of leverage. Hard to know how it's going to shake out, but how is Israel better off now?
    - toomuchtodo 6d ago
      This was Israel’s last chance to strike on Iran using the US as the munition, because the next Congress and President wouldn’t and Netanyahu (76 years old as of this comment, close to end of male life expectancy) will only live or be in power for so long. Very similar to Putin (73 years old, as of this comment) making his move against Ukraine when he did. Light cone of potential outcomes and path dependency. “Old men pulling triggers out of ideology before they’re too weak to.” I argue that, in many ways, extended life expectancy has been a curse in this context. It has allowed unscrupulous people positions of power where great harm is incurred with limited repercussions (if any!), positions of power they would not be in if they had aged out sooner. You can only wait to vote them out, or wait for them to die if you cannot vote them out. Very unfortunate.
      - iso1631 6d ago
        They don't care about long term effects because they don't need to suffer them.
        toomuchtodo 6d ago
        Correct. "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome." -- Charlie Munger Can systems be changed to expose these folks to the appropriate incentives that will improve outcomes? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    - mikeyouse 6d ago
      They’ve massively expanded into Lebanon and Gaza, settlements are continuing to grow at an alarming pace, the Saudis have little choice but to get massively more involved in fighting Iran and their proxies, A less feckless US campaign could have eliminated or greatly weakened Iran’s nuclear program, Bibi’s mostly consolidated all power in Israel… it hasn’t worked out that poorly for Israel.
- nradov 6d ago
  It's more complex than that. US crude oil extraction companies don't want prices to climb too high as longer term that destroys demand and encourages customers to find alternatives. Something in the $75–80/bbl range for WTI crude is probably optimal to maximize long-term industry profits.
  - iso1631 6d ago
    They can afford to let domestic prices increase more due to the political allies they have. When burning oil is subsidised by wind farms are banned that's a win-win for the oil companies.
avidruntime 6d ago
Personally I think the hanlon's razor approach is an intellectually lazy thought terminating cliche that provides cover to people/groups who do act with malice. A US administration sympathetic to Russia stands to benefit from higher oil prices.
- josefritzishere 6d ago
  [dead]

It’s a simple calculation though and not talked about enough. USA went to war in Iraq 25 years ago thanks to the oilmen in charge at that time. For all the political bluster about Iran and gas prices, $100 oil makes them hugely more profit than $60 oil. Of course producers and shareholders of American oil companies want that extra free money. They’re not pumping oil out of the ground and keeping it at a low price just to be benevolent to the American consumer.

toomuchtodo 6d ago
I think that is a contributor, but the root cause of the Iran war was Netanyahu goading a simple person into it. The US military and intelligence community knew the risk of this, told everyone not to do it, and they did it anyway. (if one is some combination of unsophisticated, irrational, and vain, and in a position of power, they will eventually be exploited by someone more rational and sophisticated, imho)
- gizajob 6d ago
  That’s correct but it’s multimodal. It might not have been the reason for getting involved in the first place but it does now seem like a reason for something happening every time the oil price starts to drop again.
  - toomuchtodo 6d ago
    Strongly agree, there's alway nuance and complexity.
- wombat-man 6d ago
  I don't even really understand Israel's game plan here. Iran took a lot of damage but now they control the strait, they have a lot of leverage. Hard to know how it's going to shake out, but how is Israel better off now?
  - toomuchtodo 6d ago
    This was Israel’s last chance to strike on Iran using the US as the munition, because the next Congress and President wouldn’t and Netanyahu (76 years old as of this comment, close to end of male life expectancy) will only live or be in power for so long. Very similar to Putin (73 years old, as of this comment) making his move against Ukraine when he did. Light cone of potential outcomes and path dependency. “Old men pulling triggers out of ideology before they’re too weak to.” I argue that, in many ways, extended life expectancy has been a curse in this context. It has allowed unscrupulous people positions of power where great harm is incurred with limited repercussions (if any!), positions of power they would not be in if they had aged out sooner. You can only wait to vote them out, or wait for them to die if you cannot vote them out. Very unfortunate.
    - iso1631 6d ago
      They don't care about long term effects because they don't need to suffer them.
      - toomuchtodo 6d ago
        Correct. "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome." -- Charlie Munger Can systems be changed to expose these folks to the appropriate incentives that will improve outcomes? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  - mikeyouse 6d ago
    They’ve massively expanded into Lebanon and Gaza, settlements are continuing to grow at an alarming pace, the Saudis have little choice but to get massively more involved in fighting Iran and their proxies, A less feckless US campaign could have eliminated or greatly weakened Iran’s nuclear program, Bibi’s mostly consolidated all power in Israel… it hasn’t worked out that poorly for Israel.
nradov 6d ago
It's more complex than that. US crude oil extraction companies don't want prices to climb too high as longer term that destroys demand and encourages customers to find alternatives. Something in the $75–80/bbl range for WTI crude is probably optimal to maximize long-term industry profits.
- iso1631 6d ago
  They can afford to let domestic prices increase more due to the political allies they have. When burning oil is subsidised by wind farms are banned that's a win-win for the oil companies.

avidruntime 6d ago

Personally I think the hanlon's razor approach is an intellectually lazy thought terminating cliche that provides cover to people/groups who do act with malice. A US administration sympathetic to Russia stands to benefit from higher oil prices.

josefritzishere 6d ago
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