5 ms·

You think the planet is gonna run out of oil before it runs out of water.... interesting.

toomuchtodo 5d ago
Refinery capacity is the bottleneck, there are only ~420 of them that remain [1] globally. We won't run out of oil, we will run out of refineries as they slowly close over the next 10-15 years. No new ones will be built, out of stranded asset risk. The more painful oil is now, the faster permanent changes occur to destroy the future demand curve [2] [3]. An EV deployed today will last long into the future, while ICE combustion sales continue to decline. China has destroyed oil import demand the equivalent of annual UK oil imports in the last six months, for example. Push those oil and diesel prices up, hold them up as long as possible. Several countries have banned internal combustion vehicle imports to push the needle on the EV trajectory (Ethiopia, Laos) because they are fossil fuel poor. Global EV sales have spiked, and already exceed 25% of total annual vehicles sales (~90M units/year) [4] [5]. We're just discussing how long until we reach tipping points that further accelerate the transition. How much fossil supply chain infra must be impaired to further move the needle? Hard to say, excited to find out. Electrify or get wrecked. To not to is a choice. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 (citations) [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 (citations) [3] Gas car sales fell 40% in August in China [Charts] - https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in-august-in-china-charts/ https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in... - September 8th, 2026 [4] Global sales of combustion engine cars peaked in 2017 - https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-combustion-engine-cars-peaked-in-2017 https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-com... - May 21st, 2026 [5] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales (as of this comment, China has enough EV manufacturing capacity to satisfy global demand; they are currently export constrained and cannot ship fast enough to meet demand)
- toomuchtodo 5d ago
  Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering fires - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 - September 2026
  - toomuchtodo 5d ago
    IEA warns global oil refining system ‘stretched to the limit’ as Iran, Ukraine wars tighten market - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-hormuz.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-horm... - September 11th, 2026 > The International Energy Agency has cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 6% as the Iran war drags on. > It now expects global oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day this year. > The energy agency also warned that shrinking inventories and strained refineries could further tighten markets.
velcrovan 5d ago
How does the planet run out of water?
- throw0101d 5d ago
  > How does the planet run out of water? By draining aquifers, for one: * https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 * https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-bankruptcy https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-... Certain desalination exists, but can get expensive and energy-intensive (and they it may be necessary to transport the fresh water great distances).
  - velcrovan 5d ago
    OK I see, thank you. The idea of "the planet running out of water" confused me.
WarmWash 5d ago
The planet will never run out of oil, because people will always run out of money for it first.
honr 5d ago
I don't get your point. The planet will not realistically run out of either. The water price goes up, then soler + desal becomes more cost effective, then people get to use the material that covers 75% of the planet's surface a bit more. Similarly, when oil gets more limited the price goes up and the planet gets to keep its oil while people stop being able to afford burning more of it. Or perhaps this was exactly your point.

Refinery capacity is the bottleneck, there are only ~420 of them that remain [1] globally. We won't run out of oil, we will run out of refineries as they slowly close over the next 10-15 years. No new ones will be built, out of stranded asset risk. The more painful oil is now, the faster permanent changes occur to destroy the future demand curve [2] [3]. An EV deployed today will last long into the future, while ICE combustion sales continue to decline. China has destroyed oil import demand the equivalent of annual UK oil imports in the last six months, for example. Push those oil and diesel prices up, hold them up as long as possible. Several countries have banned internal combustion vehicle imports to push the needle on the EV trajectory (Ethiopia, Laos) because they are fossil fuel poor. Global EV sales have spiked, and already exceed 25% of total annual vehicles sales (~90M units/year) [4] [5]. We're just discussing how long until we reach tipping points that further accelerate the transition. How much fossil supply chain infra must be impaired to further move the needle? Hard to say, excited to find out. Electrify or get wrecked. To not to is a choice. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 (citations) [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 (citations) [3] Gas car sales fell 40% in August in China [Charts] - https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in-august-in-china-charts/ https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in... - September 8th, 2026 [4] Global sales of combustion engine cars peaked in 2017 - https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-combustion-engine-cars-peaked-in-2017 https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-com... - May 21st, 2026 [5] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales (as of this comment, China has enough EV manufacturing capacity to satisfy global demand; they are currently export constrained and cannot ship fast enough to meet demand)

toomuchtodo 5d ago
Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering fires - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49661610 - September 2026
- toomuchtodo 5d ago
  IEA warns global oil refining system ‘stretched to the limit’ as Iran, Ukraine wars tighten market - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-hormuz.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/iran-war-oil-diesel-iea-horm... - September 11th, 2026 > The International Energy Agency has cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 6% as the Iran war drags on. > It now expects global oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day this year. > The energy agency also warned that shrinking inventories and strained refineries could further tighten markets.

velcrovan 5d ago

How does the planet run out of water?

throw0101d 5d ago
> How does the planet run out of water? By draining aquifers, for one: * https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8 * https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-bankruptcy https://unu.edu/inweh/news/world-enters-era-of-global-water-... Certain desalination exists, but can get expensive and energy-intensive (and they it may be necessary to transport the fresh water great distances).
- velcrovan 5d ago
  OK I see, thank you. The idea of "the planet running out of water" confused me.

WarmWash 5d ago

The planet will never run out of oil, because people will always run out of money for it first.

honr 5d ago

I don't get your point. The planet will not realistically run out of either. The water price goes up, then soler + desal becomes more cost effective, then people get to use the material that covers 75% of the planet's surface a bit more. Similarly, when oil gets more limited the price goes up and the planet gets to keep its oil while people stop being able to afford burning more of it. Or perhaps this was exactly your point.