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> Will this bring oil prices down in Europe ... This will not help Asia This hurts Europe more than Asia. The UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and oth

> Will this bring oil prices down in Europe ... This will not help Asia This hurts Europe more than Asia. The UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and others are similarly opposed to the Houthis having conducted airstrikes on the Houthis (eg. 2025) as well as helping target them directly or indirectly. And a large portion of global shipping is owned by Greek conglomerates - a country that is a close ally of Israel. Most GCC states also have some form of defense agreement with the UK or France. If those turn out to be meaningless, it reduces their incentive to cut preferential deals with European states. Additionally, this further enhances Turkiye and Pakistan's hand, as Saudi Arabia has signed defense pacts with both and Pakistan has threatened action against Iran yesterday if further incidents threaten Saudi Arabia. If they were able to dislodge the Houthis without direct European intervention, then it is a massive black stain on the EU's power projection capacity and it's claim that it should be treated as a great power. It also gives Turkiye additional leverage against the EU. Finally, the Houthis struck the East-West Pipeline [0]. Much of the KSA's oil is in Eastern Saudi Arabia around Dhahran. Most large Asian states like China, India, Japan, and South Korea have continued operations in Iran that allowed them continued passage. European states lack access to GCC oil as a result of Perim island being controlled by the Houthis. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-reach-strategic-island-mouth-vital-shipping-lane-2026-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-rea...

eagleal 5d ago
Yeah the EU leadership has been really shortsighted on these past decades (especially since the 10s), especially in their strategic energy and industrial sectors. Be it the Ukranian conflict, the ME crisis, the NA wars and instabilities, etc. The EU is the one that geopolitically speaking lost the most. Unless they're full puppets for foreign interests, I simply do not understand how they could leave foreign actors to dictate policies that affect thier own territory and enterprises without any sort of critical thought. But even then, they could not have possibly been all mere puppets. And yet.
- gib444 5d ago
  > Unless they're full puppets for foreign interests It's an open secret that Russian money is deep, deep in European politics.
- markus_zhang 5d ago
  I guess you only need maybe 20% of them to be puppets to mess around. It’s a lot easier to damage than to build.
- alephnerd 5d ago
  The issue was 1990s-2000s Germany argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate Russia into the European fabric, but 1990s-2000s France+UK+Italy argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate the Mediterranean into the European fabric. When the UK left the EU and France+Italy were in the midst of their economic doldrums due to the Eurozone crisis, this left the hard power states within the EU comparatively weakened. But the collapse of Minsk II and the ongoing war in the Middle East led to a cascading crisis for a unified Europe.
  - eagleal 5d ago
    Minsk per the people that brokered it was just a temporary patch to prepare Ukraine for the invasion. So no. That's not it. It's business and by now it should be clear to anyone that there's no morality involved in this space. There's nothing wrong with Russia as energy partner, as long as you don't shoot yourself in the foot by blowing up the alternatives. South of EU had proper energy supplies from ME/NA. For example crisis in ME was mitigated by Russian energy or NA energy (Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, etc). The new hegemons like Turkey, Israel, etc came only later, yet we can't say they're Saints can we? Also to appease the US administration line a lot of green energy projects were put on hold, and were only restarted this year after the Hormuz situation. The only real explanation is shortsightness for personal interests (but even then you'd have to have all your capitals abroad), or being a tool for foreign interests.
- fabian2k 5d ago
  It was cheaper, I don't think it's much more complex than that. And with fossil fuels, countries without significant local production are always dependent on someone else, with most potential suppliers being problematic in some way. Of course we should have gone for renewable energy more forcefully, but that wouldn't have resolved the issue. That change will take time, and you can't arbitrarily accelerate it.
throwaway198846 5d ago
> Japan, and South Korea have continued operations in Iran that allowed them continued passage. 1.How do they pay Iran considering the sanctions? 2.Do you think EU shouldn't sanction Iran even though they violated NNPT and their terrible record on human rights because Iran can threaten them with a sufficient price? > a country that is a close ally of Israel Are they? They never sent a single weapon or soldier to help israel, they have no formal or informal mutual defense agreement. Israel buy no military equipment from Greece. You mistake mutual interest because of a common enemy - Turkey to close alliance.
- alephnerd 5d ago
  1. Waivers, state owned enterprises, shell corporations, barter trades, and using their own currencies for transactions 2. I agree. I'm just being prosaic as to why European states are in the pickle they are today. 3. They are closely entwined via logistics, but Cyprus would be an even closer Israel-Cyprus ties. The reality is, the Saudi-Turkiye-Kuwait-Pakistan alliance is a direct reaction to the Israel-Greece-Cyprus-UAE-India cooperation or the now signed Israel-Greece-Cyprus trilateral.
  - throwaway198846 5d ago
    I see, thank you for the prompt response, I think calling them close allies is overstating it.
inglor_cz 5d ago
A Pakistan-Iran war was not on my bingo card.
- alephnerd 5d ago
  Pakistan and Iran fought a skirmish in December 2024 [0] that was quickly deescalated, but Pakistan is increasingly misaligned with the IRGC as it's working closer with Iran's political leadership [1]. I don't expect a war to happen, but Iran will double down support for Afghanistan as well as lay the red carpet for India to continue operating in the country. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cross-border_skirmishes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cro... [1] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediation-new-irgc-leaders-crisis-04-23-2026/ https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...

eagleal 5d ago

Yeah the EU leadership has been really shortsighted on these past decades (especially since the 10s), especially in their strategic energy and industrial sectors. Be it the Ukranian conflict, the ME crisis, the NA wars and instabilities, etc. The EU is the one that geopolitically speaking lost the most. Unless they're full puppets for foreign interests, I simply do not understand how they could leave foreign actors to dictate policies that affect thier own territory and enterprises without any sort of critical thought. But even then, they could not have possibly been all mere puppets. And yet.

gib444 5d ago
> Unless they're full puppets for foreign interests It's an open secret that Russian money is deep, deep in European politics.
markus_zhang 5d ago
I guess you only need maybe 20% of them to be puppets to mess around. It’s a lot easier to damage than to build.
alephnerd 5d ago
The issue was 1990s-2000s Germany argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate Russia into the European fabric, but 1990s-2000s France+UK+Italy argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate the Mediterranean into the European fabric. When the UK left the EU and France+Italy were in the midst of their economic doldrums due to the Eurozone crisis, this left the hard power states within the EU comparatively weakened. But the collapse of Minsk II and the ongoing war in the Middle East led to a cascading crisis for a unified Europe.
- eagleal 5d ago
  Minsk per the people that brokered it was just a temporary patch to prepare Ukraine for the invasion. So no. That's not it. It's business and by now it should be clear to anyone that there's no morality involved in this space. There's nothing wrong with Russia as energy partner, as long as you don't shoot yourself in the foot by blowing up the alternatives. South of EU had proper energy supplies from ME/NA. For example crisis in ME was mitigated by Russian energy or NA energy (Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, etc). The new hegemons like Turkey, Israel, etc came only later, yet we can't say they're Saints can we? Also to appease the US administration line a lot of green energy projects were put on hold, and were only restarted this year after the Hormuz situation. The only real explanation is shortsightness for personal interests (but even then you'd have to have all your capitals abroad), or being a tool for foreign interests.
fabian2k 5d ago
It was cheaper, I don't think it's much more complex than that. And with fossil fuels, countries without significant local production are always dependent on someone else, with most potential suppliers being problematic in some way. Of course we should have gone for renewable energy more forcefully, but that wouldn't have resolved the issue. That change will take time, and you can't arbitrarily accelerate it.

throwaway198846 5d ago

> Japan, and South Korea have continued operations in Iran that allowed them continued passage. 1.How do they pay Iran considering the sanctions? 2.Do you think EU shouldn't sanction Iran even though they violated NNPT and their terrible record on human rights because Iran can threaten them with a sufficient price? > a country that is a close ally of Israel Are they? They never sent a single weapon or soldier to help israel, they have no formal or informal mutual defense agreement. Israel buy no military equipment from Greece. You mistake mutual interest because of a common enemy - Turkey to close alliance.

alephnerd 5d ago
1. Waivers, state owned enterprises, shell corporations, barter trades, and using their own currencies for transactions 2. I agree. I'm just being prosaic as to why European states are in the pickle they are today. 3. They are closely entwined via logistics, but Cyprus would be an even closer Israel-Cyprus ties. The reality is, the Saudi-Turkiye-Kuwait-Pakistan alliance is a direct reaction to the Israel-Greece-Cyprus-UAE-India cooperation or the now signed Israel-Greece-Cyprus trilateral.
- throwaway198846 5d ago
  I see, thank you for the prompt response, I think calling them close allies is overstating it.

inglor_cz 5d ago

A Pakistan-Iran war was not on my bingo card.

alephnerd 5d ago
Pakistan and Iran fought a skirmish in December 2024 [0] that was quickly deescalated, but Pakistan is increasingly misaligned with the IRGC as it's working closer with Iran's political leadership [1]. I don't expect a war to happen, but Iran will double down support for Afghanistan as well as lay the red carpet for India to continue operating in the country. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cross-border_skirmishes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cro... [1] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediation-new-irgc-leaders-crisis-04-23-2026/ https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...