4 ms·
One statement at the end of this excerpt merits scrutiny: " A variant of these viruses capable of human-to-human spread would therefore be of very high concern
by ricksunny 6d ago
One statement at the end of this excerpt merits scrutiny:
" A variant of these viruses capable of human-to-human spread would therefore be of very high concern. Moreover, it is possible that such a variant could also have capacity for severe disease outside of the respiratory tract. Unlike other influenza variants, H5 viruses (of which this avian virus is one) often show striking brain involvement in cats, foxes, ferrets, and some human cases. A pandemic variant with such properties would be especially concerning due to its potential to increase disease severity, confuse diagnosis, and hinder treatment.
As in the first case study, this research was clearly dual use in nature. Understanding the genetic basis of these specific viral traits could help in the early identification of naturally-emerging versions of the virus—versions with the potential to cause a human pandemic" (emphasis mine)
This statement flirts with the Ron Fouchier (Netherlands) risky-grant-justification thesis, repeated ad nauseam by Peter Daszak in grant applications, who has been cut off from federal funding.
1. Premise: it would be good to surveil for & monitor viruses in nature that are near-ready to spill over to humans from nature;
2. Protocol: We will serially passage bird flu in ferrets until its virulence and/or transmissibility is high. (ferrets are treated as a model mammal stand-in for humans)
Comparing genetic changes (mutations) as sequenced along the passaging pathway will tell us what to surveil for in nature.
As has long been debated in recent years, we have no idea if nature (in any given natural instance, if ever) will choose the pathway that serial passaging (in one given lab instance) produced in order to demonstrate higher virulence and/or transmissibility in humans.
Formally, Anthropic's statement recapitulates the premise only, and we don't know what protocol (the "Understanding the genetic basis of these specific viral traits" part) if any was being queried for. Whether a given regulatory regime's policy allows say for purely in silico investigation of same, for the result to be credible it would need to have been leveraging an empirically-verified (i.e. real-world) training set. Generating that training set would risk creating the pandemic that its supporting grant application tries at justifying to prevent.
But the offending prompter and similar user-LLM exchanges' potential to enable GMDs (Grants of Mass Destruction) should remind us to be very much on our guard against epistemologically bankrupt protocol outlines enabled by LLMs & their prompters' motivated reasoning.
proud disclaimer: I am an advisor to BiosafetyNow.