5 ms·

> formalizing the 166-page paper from OpenAI would take 132,800 person-hours Am I missing something or is this completely out of the ballpark? I must be missi

• Paracompact 8d ago
  By formalizing, they mean within a proof assistant like Lean or Rocq, not simply in prose in a textbook. I can attest, 40 hours per page is by no means an overestimate for this sort of work.
  • adverbly 8d ago
    Can you also attest to the scaling factor they suggest and that it doesn't have any scaling time benefits? 166 * 40 = 7000ish They say it is 20x that. Do you also agree with that?
    • MarkusQ 8d ago
      The point was that a textbook (where the 40hr/page estimate comes from) is cumulative/linear -- what you need for page n was defined / established on the preceding pages. But in a proof such as this you can call on any other published result (and those can do the same) so the dependency graph is (potentially) much bushier. Thus later pages of the proof should take far more than 40 hours to manually formalize.
    • tomjakubowski 8d ago
      The scale factor comes from this number in the article, seemingly an intuited estimate: > Say a research article takes 20 times more effort to formalize than page in an undergraduate textbook. That would suggest formalizing a 10-page research article might take 200 weeks (assuming 40h/wk) of effort, or about four years. Not a mathematician, I have no idea if that's in the ballpark.
    • Paracompact 7d ago
      With less confidence, yes. If anything, scaling detriments exceed the scaling benefits when it comes to large formalizations.