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Japan has no domestic source of oil or natural gas. The US has so much natural gas that it’s flared off to the atmosphere in some places. Natural gas is insanel

Japan has no domestic source of oil or natural gas. The US has so much natural gas that it’s flared off to the atmosphere in some places. Natural gas is insanely cheap to heat with as a result and condensing boilers are extremely efficient. This created a scenario where heat pumps may be more efficient, but they might still cost more to operate. The raw cost of gas excluding pipeline and connection costs in my state is $0.57 for what is equivalent to 29.3kW of electricity. It’s very hard to beat that if you have a 98% efficient boiler, even with a COP of 4 if you’re paying $0.15/kWh, that means the equivalent amount of heat moved would cost 0.15*7=$1.05 or just under twice as expensive.

Groxx 6d ago
Yep - where I am, it's moderately more expensive to use our heat pump to heat the house (at basically any time of year) than to use the gas furnace, and approximately nobody has a heat pump water heater. And with datacenters trying to move in, that equation may get even worse in the future. Gas is surprisingly, weirdly cheap, often not even metered in apartments. Having two options during cold winters can pay for itself with one emergency repair though, or be a massive savings if it can't be fixed fast enough and pipes burst.
- quickthrowman 6d ago
  The backup heat source of a heat pump is extremely nice to have if your furnace craps out, just shut off the gas supply and let the heat pump do its job. If I had to replace my A/C condenser I’d probably opt for a heat pump to replace it so that I’d have that option too.
- throwaway2037 6d ago
  > Gas is surprisingly, weirdly cheap, often not even metered in apartments. Yikes. How is this possible? My guess: You are paying for it in a building fee.
  - Groxx 6d ago
    Generally yes. But also it is sometimes like half the cost or less for comparative heating power, and for air-heating an apartment in the middle simply doesn't need anywhere near as much, and you literally heat each other so actually-fair costs are fuzzier. Gas bills in places that didn't include it would often be like $15/month in the middle of winter, hardly worth the administrative and hardware costs. One of the houses I rented many years ago didn't even have metered gas. We paid a "hookup" fee to the city (like... $40/quarter?), and they didn't care how much we used, as long as it wasn't for commercial purposes. I assume the city had something for detecting extreme use or leaks, but that's probably it. It was a somewhat strange property though.
    - dns_snek 6d ago
      > and you literally heat each other so actually-fair costs are fuzzier What you're describing is closest to "actually fair" I think we can get. A neighbour of someone I know leaves their apartment empty for long periods of time and when they're gone they just shut off their heating completely and leave all of their neighbours to pick up the bill - each apartment has their own heating system but they share walls, floors, and ceilings.
Scoundreller 6d ago
> The raw cost of gas excluding pipeline and connection costs In Ontario Canada; your gas hookup is CAD$29/month (~US$21) every month of the year, on top of a per m3 charge for delivery to you before the gas cost itself. So on a smaller or well insulated residence, capping that pipe really helps push the economics in favour of heat pumps. https://www.enbridgegas.com/-/media/Extranet-Pages/ontario/residential/myaccount/rates/UG---Rate-M1---South-System---Residential.pdf https://www.enbridgegas.com/-/media/Extranet-Pages/ontario/r...
rsynnott 5d ago
> It’s very hard to beat that if you have a 98% efficient boiler You do not, to be clear, have a 98% efficient gas boiler. You _may_ have a gas condenser boiler which claims 98% efficiency in absolutely ideal circumstances, but realistically you're likely not getting close to that. AIUI 80% efficiency is fairly normal for real-world condenser boiler usage (non-condensers were more like 70%)

Groxx 6d ago

Yep - where I am, it's moderately more expensive to use our heat pump to heat the house (at basically any time of year) than to use the gas furnace, and approximately nobody has a heat pump water heater. And with datacenters trying to move in, that equation may get even worse in the future. Gas is surprisingly, weirdly cheap, often not even metered in apartments. Having two options during cold winters can pay for itself with one emergency repair though, or be a massive savings if it can't be fixed fast enough and pipes burst.

quickthrowman 6d ago
The backup heat source of a heat pump is extremely nice to have if your furnace craps out, just shut off the gas supply and let the heat pump do its job. If I had to replace my A/C condenser I’d probably opt for a heat pump to replace it so that I’d have that option too.
throwaway2037 6d ago
> Gas is surprisingly, weirdly cheap, often not even metered in apartments. Yikes. How is this possible? My guess: You are paying for it in a building fee.
- Groxx 6d ago
  Generally yes. But also it is sometimes like half the cost or less for comparative heating power, and for air-heating an apartment in the middle simply doesn't need anywhere near as much, and you literally heat each other so actually-fair costs are fuzzier. Gas bills in places that didn't include it would often be like $15/month in the middle of winter, hardly worth the administrative and hardware costs. One of the houses I rented many years ago didn't even have metered gas. We paid a "hookup" fee to the city (like... $40/quarter?), and they didn't care how much we used, as long as it wasn't for commercial purposes. I assume the city had something for detecting extreme use or leaks, but that's probably it. It was a somewhat strange property though.
  - dns_snek 6d ago
    > and you literally heat each other so actually-fair costs are fuzzier What you're describing is closest to "actually fair" I think we can get. A neighbour of someone I know leaves their apartment empty for long periods of time and when they're gone they just shut off their heating completely and leave all of their neighbours to pick up the bill - each apartment has their own heating system but they share walls, floors, and ceilings.

Scoundreller 6d ago

> The raw cost of gas excluding pipeline and connection costs In Ontario Canada; your gas hookup is CAD$29/month (~US$21) every month of the year, on top of a per m3 charge for delivery to you before the gas cost itself. So on a smaller or well insulated residence, capping that pipe really helps push the economics in favour of heat pumps. https://www.enbridgegas.com/-/media/Extranet-Pages/ontario/residential/myaccount/rates/UG---Rate-M1---South-System---Residential.pdf https://www.enbridgegas.com/-/media/Extranet-Pages/ontario/r...

rsynnott 5d ago

> It’s very hard to beat that if you have a 98% efficient boiler You do not, to be clear, have a 98% efficient gas boiler. You _may_ have a gas condenser boiler which claims 98% efficiency in absolutely ideal circumstances, but realistically you're likely not getting close to that. AIUI 80% efficiency is fairly normal for real-world condenser boiler usage (non-condensers were more like 70%)