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Oh my God THANK YOU. I do not have the words how tired I am of hearing tech people and economists talk about biology.

by colingauvin 7d ago

mrits 7d ago
Do you need to be a physicist to realize an asteroid is going to kill you ?
- colingauvin 7d ago
  Arguably yes. I would wager no one killed by an asteroid in the history of people killed by asteroids realized what was happening before they died.
  - sph 7d ago
    Nor being an astronomer makes you able to predict every asteroids’ trajectory. Yet anyone in tech with a Claude sub has decided that AI super-intelligence is impossible and it’s stupid to even worry about it.
  - mrits 7d ago
    Not much of an argument as you just proved the counter point. You don't need a specialist for what is now common knowledge.
- smitty1e 7d ago
  Refereeing who is permitted to say what based upon credentials is a popular sport these days.
  - colingauvin 7d ago
    I would never advocate they not be allowed to say it. But I also am sick of hearing wildly unrealistic takes.
busyant 7d ago
As a biologist whose PhD research was on the genetics of microbial pathogens, I am far more concerned than the author. I think he trots out a lot of straw-man arguments (e.g., teenager making the weapon, "super"virus, etc.). Those scenarios are purposely far-fetched so that he can ridicule them and thereby leave the impression that all the AI/bioweapon concerns are similarly far-fetched. He spends a lot of "tokens" discussing AI-generated viruses. But bioweapons can be much simpler than a virus--they can be small molecules that inactivate essential molecular targets in humans. This is something that was discussed at length when I was in grad school and it wasn't dismissed as hyperbolic hokum. So, is AI going to develop a supervirus? Probably not. But it doesn't need to. Instead, I speculate that AI can "help" in making bioweapons ... a. more potent b. less detectable c. easier to disseminate You still need humans in the lab to run the experiments, but I think it's foolish to dismiss the worries about AI in such a condescending way.
- alevskaya 7d ago
  "they can be small molecules that inactivate essential molecular targets in humans" - aka a poison. I mean we deal with the reality of poisons plenty fine right? This isn't x-risk stuff. I was an experimental synbio person for decades, and I did plenty of microbial pathogen work. I've also worked on frontier LLMs for the last decade. All of this stuff is gated by experimental effort, not AI!
  - busyant 7d ago
    > All of this stuff is gated by experimental effort, not AI! My post said you still needed to run the experiments, but if you think AI can't help to improve bioweapons compared to humans alone, I disagree.
- UncleMeat 6d ago
  Are they straw men if they are specific scenarios presented by widely read commentators? A straw man is when you misrepresent somebody's position to knock it down. But if Noah Smith wrote about a scenario where 90% of the population is killed by a virus created by some teenagers with an AI... it isn't a straw man to attack that scenario.

Oh my God THANK YOU. I do not have the words how tired I am of hearing tech people and economists talk about biology.

mrits 7d ago

Do you need to be a physicist to realize an asteroid is going to kill you ?

colingauvin 7d ago
Arguably yes. I would wager no one killed by an asteroid in the history of people killed by asteroids realized what was happening before they died.
- sph 7d ago
  Nor being an astronomer makes you able to predict every asteroids’ trajectory. Yet anyone in tech with a Claude sub has decided that AI super-intelligence is impossible and it’s stupid to even worry about it.
- mrits 7d ago
  Not much of an argument as you just proved the counter point. You don't need a specialist for what is now common knowledge.
smitty1e 7d ago
Refereeing who is permitted to say what based upon credentials is a popular sport these days.
- colingauvin 7d ago
  I would never advocate they not be allowed to say it. But I also am sick of hearing wildly unrealistic takes.

busyant 7d ago

As a biologist whose PhD research was on the genetics of microbial pathogens, I am far more concerned than the author. I think he trots out a lot of straw-man arguments (e.g., teenager making the weapon, "super"virus, etc.). Those scenarios are purposely far-fetched so that he can ridicule them and thereby leave the impression that all the AI/bioweapon concerns are similarly far-fetched. He spends a lot of "tokens" discussing AI-generated viruses. But bioweapons can be much simpler than a virus--they can be small molecules that inactivate essential molecular targets in humans. This is something that was discussed at length when I was in grad school and it wasn't dismissed as hyperbolic hokum. So, is AI going to develop a supervirus? Probably not. But it doesn't need to. Instead, I speculate that AI can "help" in making bioweapons ... a. more potent b. less detectable c. easier to disseminate You still need humans in the lab to run the experiments, but I think it's foolish to dismiss the worries about AI in such a condescending way.

alevskaya 7d ago
"they can be small molecules that inactivate essential molecular targets in humans" - aka a poison. I mean we deal with the reality of poisons plenty fine right? This isn't x-risk stuff. I was an experimental synbio person for decades, and I did plenty of microbial pathogen work. I've also worked on frontier LLMs for the last decade. All of this stuff is gated by experimental effort, not AI!
- busyant 7d ago
  > All of this stuff is gated by experimental effort, not AI! My post said you still needed to run the experiments, but if you think AI can't help to improve bioweapons compared to humans alone, I disagree.
UncleMeat 6d ago
Are they straw men if they are specific scenarios presented by widely read commentators? A straw man is when you misrepresent somebody's position to knock it down. But if Noah Smith wrote about a scenario where 90% of the population is killed by a virus created by some teenagers with an AI... it isn't a straw man to attack that scenario.