I mostly agree, however: 1. When a nation perceives a threat as severe and imminent, attitudes harden quickly. This perception can be achieved independently of

I mostly agree, however: 1. When a nation perceives a threat as severe and imminent, attitudes harden quickly. This perception can be achieved independently of whether the threat is real. Nuking the other guy first, consequences be damned, could quickly become a very popular policy. 2. I think the "nuclear winter would harm us all" argument depends on how geographically large the target is. It's a strong argument against trying to strike all of Russia, China, or the US, but less strong against, say, the UK or (at the extreme end) Taiwan or Singapore.