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It's baffling to me that people think that timeframe is too short. Basically, I don't think you've been paying attention to what is actually going on in the AI

It's baffling to me that people think that timeframe is too short. Basically, I don't think you've been paying attention to what is actually going on in the AI world. People much smarter than I believe we'll see fully automated, soup-to-nut factories coming online in the next 5-6 years. Here's one such post from Ajeya Cotra, one of the METR researchers who did the independent Hugging Face investigation: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai...

sarchertech 7d ago
> Ajeya Cotra Please look up her resume. If that’s one of the people who are “much smarter than you”, you’re either very gullible or you don’t give yourself much credit. She has a BS and and has essentially never worked in a technical role. Her primary role over a short work history seems to have been more focused on getting funding to study AI safety. There’s nothing revelatory in that article it’s just breathless speculation.
- hn_throwaway_99 5d ago
  This is bullshit and honestly reeks of sexism given that I rarely see these kind of attacks against men with lesser reputations. She has a CS degree from one of the best CS departments in the country. Sure, she worked at Coefficient Giving directly after school, in a technical capacity as a research analyst initially. But more importantly, I've read her reports and saw her interviews. She comes across as extremely analytical, intelligent, and focused on where the data leads. If you actually read the history of what her and her fellow METR researchers were able to piece together with limited yet voluminous data and a very short time window, and then determine she is engaged in "breathless speculation" and pretend she doesn't have the data to back it up, you're full of shit. What, you think it would have been more impressive if she coded up some bullshit social media gamification app?

sarchertech 7d ago

> Ajeya Cotra Please look up her resume. If that’s one of the people who are “much smarter than you”, you’re either very gullible or you don’t give yourself much credit. She has a BS and and has essentially never worked in a technical role. Her primary role over a short work history seems to have been more focused on getting funding to study AI safety. There’s nothing revelatory in that article it’s just breathless speculation.

hn_throwaway_99 5d ago
This is bullshit and honestly reeks of sexism given that I rarely see these kind of attacks against men with lesser reputations. She has a CS degree from one of the best CS departments in the country. Sure, she worked at Coefficient Giving directly after school, in a technical capacity as a research analyst initially. But more importantly, I've read her reports and saw her interviews. She comes across as extremely analytical, intelligent, and focused on where the data leads. If you actually read the history of what her and her fellow METR researchers were able to piece together with limited yet voluminous data and a very short time window, and then determine she is engaged in "breathless speculation" and pretend she doesn't have the data to back it up, you're full of shit. What, you think it would have been more impressive if she coded up some bullshit social media gamification app?