> but where's the outcome dataset justifying this? how did they get that probability? what was the specific methodology of the tests? what variables did they ac

> but where's the outcome dataset justifying this? how did they get that probability? what was the specific methodology of the tests? what variables did they account for? It's just high school statistics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval It's not a probability. It's essentially an assertion that if the test were run 100 times, the result would be within the interval 95 times.