8 ms·

That’s how all “estimated damages” work. It’s all just made up by some random person who guesstimated a number then multiplied it by the maximum possible people

by sen 13d ago

That’s how all “estimated damages” work. It’s all just made up by some random person who guesstimated a number then multiplied it by the maximum possible people effected, realistic or not.

Waterluvian 13d ago
There’s probably a reasonable methodology but it has a lot of multiplications and some base parameters that make the whole thing wildly sensitive.
- qlte 13d ago
  Yes, it's actually based on an economic model seemingly developed with a detailed understanding of modern farming practices and historical effects of timeline disruptions on yields. It may be approximate but isn't just some random dude guesstimating based on vibes or something. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/05/how-will-the-gps-outage-on-may-10-affect-us-farm-profitability.html?_sp=3b5af4ec-7811-41ab-ae7e-2dcc0439b157.1788493624416 https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/05/how-will-the-gps-o... https://shiny.agmanager.info/cottonBotsDev/ https://shiny.agmanager.info/cottonBotsDev/
  - MarkusQ 13d ago
    It's an order of magnitude estimate of the worst case per acre, multiplied by a very course estimate of the number of acres affected, with little or no accounting for the length of the outage, the timing of the outage relative to specific crop-planting times in specific regions, and similar factors. It relies on manufacturer's estimates of the benefit of using their technology to assess the impact of not being able to use the technology. In other words, it's a SWAG. Consider: the outage may have meant that some equipment would be slower, less accurate, or missing some features, causing time delays and other losses that may or may not be equivalent to using the non-GPS equipment. Or it could have rendered the equipment entirely unusable during the outage. It could even have permanently damaged the equipment (e.g. causing it to drive over an embankment or something). There is no apparent attempt to differentiate these outcomes, which could have significant impact on the estimate.
- the8472 13d ago
  It's not reasonable because the error bars of each estimate compound and they may not even be normally distributed in the first place. You should rather convolve probability distributions - assuming factors are independent - and if the IQR covers a huge range, perhaps orders of magnitude even, you should state that.
CGMthrowaway 13d ago
Tell me "it's different" with this one please https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/study-links-past-emissions-trillions-future-economic-damages https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/study-links-past-em...

by sen 13d ago

That’s how all “estimated damages” work. It’s all just made up by some random person who guesstimated a number then multiplied it by the maximum possible people effected, realistic or not.

Waterluvian 13d ago

There’s probably a reasonable methodology but it has a lot of multiplications and some base parameters that make the whole thing wildly sensitive.

qlte 13d ago
Yes, it's actually based on an economic model seemingly developed with a detailed understanding of modern farming practices and historical effects of timeline disruptions on yields. It may be approximate but isn't just some random dude guesstimating based on vibes or something. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/05/how-will-the-gps-outage-on-may-10-affect-us-farm-profitability.html?_sp=3b5af4ec-7811-41ab-ae7e-2dcc0439b157.1788493624416 https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/05/how-will-the-gps-o... https://shiny.agmanager.info/cottonBotsDev/ https://shiny.agmanager.info/cottonBotsDev/
- MarkusQ 13d ago
  It's an order of magnitude estimate of the worst case per acre, multiplied by a very course estimate of the number of acres affected, with little or no accounting for the length of the outage, the timing of the outage relative to specific crop-planting times in specific regions, and similar factors. It relies on manufacturer's estimates of the benefit of using their technology to assess the impact of not being able to use the technology. In other words, it's a SWAG. Consider: the outage may have meant that some equipment would be slower, less accurate, or missing some features, causing time delays and other losses that may or may not be equivalent to using the non-GPS equipment. Or it could have rendered the equipment entirely unusable during the outage. It could even have permanently damaged the equipment (e.g. causing it to drive over an embankment or something). There is no apparent attempt to differentiate these outcomes, which could have significant impact on the estimate.
the8472 13d ago
It's not reasonable because the error bars of each estimate compound and they may not even be normally distributed in the first place. You should rather convolve probability distributions - assuming factors are independent - and if the IQR covers a huge range, perhaps orders of magnitude even, you should state that.

CGMthrowaway 13d ago

Tell me "it's different" with this one please https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/study-links-past-emissions-trillions-future-economic-damages https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/study-links-past-em...