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> So, the first 1,000 robots will only be used to build the next robot factory, which also will be used to build the next really big robot factory. When we see

> So, the first 1,000 robots will only be used to build the next robot factory, which also will be used to build the next really big robot factory. When we see humanoid robots actually out in the wild for sale at retail, they are going to come very very quickly, at scale. This is one of the dumbest ideas I've read here. Seriously; do you honestly believe, that we will be able to linearly scale all of the materials that go into robots? You can't have a factory without motors, aluminum, steel, copper, quality control, CNC manufacturing, precision bearings, ball screws, harmonic drives, semiconductors, batteries, and skilled people to design, install, and maintain all of it. Every one of those is its own supply chain with its own bottleneck, and almost all of them are already constrained and at risk. If anything, I would bet you $500 we will not be able to jump to the robotics age because we don't have enough skilled humans on this earth, due to the excitement about not training them because of their imminent replacement. That's before geopolitics - do you think China, if we actually built working humanoid robots, wouldn't immediately claim all supply for themselves and lock down the supply chain? Of course they would, it would be stupid not to. In the event of a working humanoid robot, every single dependency needs to be onshore, or it's not scaling.

DiggyJohnson 14d ago
You could have made the same point without starting with the insult.
- gjsman-1000 14d ago
  The original commentator works at a private equity fund, admits he has lost $1B twice, and yet any blue-collar laborer has a better grasp of the material world. The insult is earned.
  - deleted 14d ago
    [deleted]
  - vessenes 14d ago
    If you tour SpaceX’s hawthorn factory they will tell you: “raw materials come in, rockets go out.” Spacex manufacturing had a mix of robots and humans manufacturing together on the floor the last time I was there, like six years ago. But it was definitely deeply vertically integrated manufacturing. Similarly BYD in china has plants over an acre in size that run lights out with one human worker. My understanding is these are also vertically integrated, taking inspiration from Tesla and SpaceX. I’m happy to learn more about the material world from people at any walk of life; right now we have humans building robots out of raw materials and robots building robots out of raw materials already in the world. My prediction is that humanoid robots building robots will scale rapidly in the next two years; please give me the bear case though, I’m genuinely interested.
MisterTea 14d ago
> You can't have a factory without motors, ... This might hold true if the nation building the robots did not have a well established manufacturing base. However, I can see this working in China who has a strong manufacturing base where they can rapidly source all of theses components. It would make for a great experiment but you need working robots first. And that is where I think this idea falls short -- there are no capable robots to accomplish this self-replicating task.

DiggyJohnson 14d ago

You could have made the same point without starting with the insult.

gjsman-1000 14d ago
The original commentator works at a private equity fund, admits he has lost $1B twice, and yet any blue-collar laborer has a better grasp of the material world. The insult is earned.
- deleted 14d ago
  [deleted]
- vessenes 14d ago
  If you tour SpaceX’s hawthorn factory they will tell you: “raw materials come in, rockets go out.” Spacex manufacturing had a mix of robots and humans manufacturing together on the floor the last time I was there, like six years ago. But it was definitely deeply vertically integrated manufacturing. Similarly BYD in china has plants over an acre in size that run lights out with one human worker. My understanding is these are also vertically integrated, taking inspiration from Tesla and SpaceX. I’m happy to learn more about the material world from people at any walk of life; right now we have humans building robots out of raw materials and robots building robots out of raw materials already in the world. My prediction is that humanoid robots building robots will scale rapidly in the next two years; please give me the bear case though, I’m genuinely interested.

MisterTea 14d ago

> You can't have a factory without motors, ... This might hold true if the nation building the robots did not have a well established manufacturing base. However, I can see this working in China who has a strong manufacturing base where they can rapidly source all of theses components. It would make for a great experiment but you need working robots first. And that is where I think this idea falls short -- there are no capable robots to accomplish this self-replicating task.