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The subprime market changed quite a bit in size and how much was securitized in the run up to 2007, so not sure a prediction in 2000 for a 2003 event would have
by RandomLensman 16d ago
The subprime market changed quite a bit in size and how much was securitized in the run up to 2007, so not sure a prediction in 2000 for a 2003 event would have been easily transferred to what happened later. Would really come down to what specifically the prediction was based on for it to be a bubble in 2000.
- HWR_14 16d agoExcellent point. We can look at the reasons for the prediction as well as the result in assessing its value. It seems hard to do in practice unless you are evaluated by someone who makes better predictions, but it would be interesting.