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The data center growth questions he raised have been where I found him interesting. I could never find any other articles to corroborate his predictions though.

The data center growth questions he raised have been where I found him interesting. I could never find any other articles to corroborate his predictions though. My question is when will the AI bubble burst? I didn't know he'd had a long history of mispredicting AI quality and growth of companies like Microsoft and Google.

oblio 14d ago
> I didn't know he'd had a long history of mispredicting AI quality and growth of companies like Microsoft and Google. After watching this space for a long time, I think the growth angle is... untested. All the FAANGs were slowing down after Covid. They boomed as the money printer went brrrr, then they plateaued. They've also kind of covered a lot of their potential their main total addressable markets, with the big exception of clouds, which probably have at least 5 or 10 years of growth as workloads are still being moved away from on-premise. Maybe ads, too, since TV is still around and big and there are probably a bunch of other holdouts I'm forgetting. Then, FAANGs started reaccelerating around 2024. Part of it was due to internal reforms, basically, layoffs shaking some things up. But I suspect the bigger part has been AI, driven by CapEx and all sorts of other things. The problem with the AI growth is that it's highly opaque. We don't really know who the actual clients are. It is <<extremely>> likely that for Oracle (OCI), Microsoft (Azure), Google (GCP), Amazon (AWS) their direct customers are just OpenAI and Anthropic. That's it. It's likely that 70% of the AI growth is just 2 companies. That can't be healthy, it's also likely extremely risky. Just the fact that the new cloud growth is so opaque is worrisome.
mossTechnician 15d ago
I ended up on this comment after looking through the linked article and realizing the words "data center" never come up in it.

oblio 14d ago

> I didn't know he'd had a long history of mispredicting AI quality and growth of companies like Microsoft and Google. After watching this space for a long time, I think the growth angle is... untested. All the FAANGs were slowing down after Covid. They boomed as the money printer went brrrr, then they plateaued. They've also kind of covered a lot of their potential their main total addressable markets, with the big exception of clouds, which probably have at least 5 or 10 years of growth as workloads are still being moved away from on-premise. Maybe ads, too, since TV is still around and big and there are probably a bunch of other holdouts I'm forgetting. Then, FAANGs started reaccelerating around 2024. Part of it was due to internal reforms, basically, layoffs shaking some things up. But I suspect the bigger part has been AI, driven by CapEx and all sorts of other things. The problem with the AI growth is that it's highly opaque. We don't really know who the actual clients are. It is <<extremely>> likely that for Oracle (OCI), Microsoft (Azure), Google (GCP), Amazon (AWS) their direct customers are just OpenAI and Anthropic. That's it. It's likely that 70% of the AI growth is just 2 companies. That can't be healthy, it's also likely extremely risky. Just the fact that the new cloud growth is so opaque is worrisome.

mossTechnician 15d ago

I ended up on this comment after looking through the linked article and realizing the words "data center" never come up in it.