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> The best engineers know how our systems work down to more levels, but for average developers producing average software with average impact, average output is

> The best engineers know how our systems work down to more levels, but for average developers producing average software with average impact, average output is acceptable. What if I told you the "best engineers" pretty much all know the same things? The tools they use at work and the code they write to get paid doesn't reflect even half of what they know. There will always be situations where a problem goes deep enough to leverage experiences from outside of the usual work role. What if I told you that your "specialists", AI or not, are going to be objectively far worse at actually getting things done because they don't have the bigger picture in mind? We've seen this race to the bottom in other disciplines before. Software is so special and lucky that all you have to do to prevent this is not use AI while lying to your boss that you are. When the boss finds out, they stop paying for AI and everyone is happy again.

kstenerud 19d ago
> What if I told you the "best engineers" pretty much all know the same things? I'd say that you need to provide some evidence for this extraordinary claim. > What if I told you that your "specialists", AI or not, are going to be objectively far worse at actually getting things done because they don't have the bigger picture in mind? I'd say that you need to provide some evidence for this extraordinary claim. > We've seen this race to the bottom in other disciplines before. Such as?
- sublinear 19d ago
  The "best engineers" we have right now started their careers when the startup era was hot and they now have 15-20+ years of experience. They wore all the hats while everyone else stunted themselves straight out of school by going to a big corporate office. In that era, the devs at a startup were the "everything people". I've met plenty of web app devs of that vintage who are just as comfortable compiling a linux kernel, setting up a k8s cluster, maintaining 2Us, etc. I've also met plenty of engineers who started out in the opposite direction, worked as app devs, and are now in high level architect or even CTO roles. Anyone who chose to specialize went the vocational route of getting certifications and playing the contractor game. They have never truly handled anything on fire. They never stick around long enough to, and that's the whole point for them. This pattern already happened in the (blue collar) "trades". It started in the late 20th century. Now we have some of the worst built homes, buildings, roads, etc. People will (sort of) put up with a pothole or leaky roof. They will not put up with major infrastructure outages or showstopper bugs that directly impact their minute-to-minute ability to function in modern society. Do we really want to make this even worse with automated AI copypasta pretending to be "engineering"? Nobody is fooled. The cost cutting is hitting rock bottom, and tons of people overexposed to AI in their investments are about to lose their shirts. Your "proof" is all there for anyone to find. Ask anyone outside your bubble.
  - kstenerud 19d ago
    > The "best engineers" we have right now started their careers when the startup era was hot and they now have 15-20+ years of experience. They also started before that era, and after. I've met plenty of them throughout my career, and still do every so often. They were never very common. > They wore all the hats This isn't unique to that era. > In that era, the devs at a startup were the "everything people". They still are. You do everything because you don't have the resources to hire for any positions. > Anyone who chose to specialize went the vocational route of getting certifications and playing the contractor game. That depends on your definition of "specialize". I'm using it in the sense of learning one particular aspect well (in addition to anything else you learn). Certifications and contracting have nothing to do with it. > This pattern already happened in the (blue collar) "trades". It started in the late 20th century. Now we have some of the worst built homes, buildings, roads, etc. This is certainly true in the USA, although I'd argue that it's the companies cutting costs (and corners) rather than the tradespeople becoming unskilled. In most first world countries there are standards and audits that keep companies (mostly) in line so that you don't get disasters-in-waiting like the new Bay Bridge. > Do we really want to make this even worse with automated AI copypasta pretending to be "engineering"? Nobody is fooled. Like with any force multiplier tool, you get the early days where every Joe is pumping out crap (same kind of thing happened with COBOL), and then the shake-out happens where companies realize that it's not a free lunch, and you need skilled people after all.

kstenerud 19d ago

> What if I told you the "best engineers" pretty much all know the same things? I'd say that you need to provide some evidence for this extraordinary claim. > What if I told you that your "specialists", AI or not, are going to be objectively far worse at actually getting things done because they don't have the bigger picture in mind? I'd say that you need to provide some evidence for this extraordinary claim. > We've seen this race to the bottom in other disciplines before. Such as?

sublinear 19d ago
The "best engineers" we have right now started their careers when the startup era was hot and they now have 15-20+ years of experience. They wore all the hats while everyone else stunted themselves straight out of school by going to a big corporate office. In that era, the devs at a startup were the "everything people". I've met plenty of web app devs of that vintage who are just as comfortable compiling a linux kernel, setting up a k8s cluster, maintaining 2Us, etc. I've also met plenty of engineers who started out in the opposite direction, worked as app devs, and are now in high level architect or even CTO roles. Anyone who chose to specialize went the vocational route of getting certifications and playing the contractor game. They have never truly handled anything on fire. They never stick around long enough to, and that's the whole point for them. This pattern already happened in the (blue collar) "trades". It started in the late 20th century. Now we have some of the worst built homes, buildings, roads, etc. People will (sort of) put up with a pothole or leaky roof. They will not put up with major infrastructure outages or showstopper bugs that directly impact their minute-to-minute ability to function in modern society. Do we really want to make this even worse with automated AI copypasta pretending to be "engineering"? Nobody is fooled. The cost cutting is hitting rock bottom, and tons of people overexposed to AI in their investments are about to lose their shirts. Your "proof" is all there for anyone to find. Ask anyone outside your bubble.
- kstenerud 19d ago
  > The "best engineers" we have right now started their careers when the startup era was hot and they now have 15-20+ years of experience. They also started before that era, and after. I've met plenty of them throughout my career, and still do every so often. They were never very common. > They wore all the hats This isn't unique to that era. > In that era, the devs at a startup were the "everything people". They still are. You do everything because you don't have the resources to hire for any positions. > Anyone who chose to specialize went the vocational route of getting certifications and playing the contractor game. That depends on your definition of "specialize". I'm using it in the sense of learning one particular aspect well (in addition to anything else you learn). Certifications and contracting have nothing to do with it. > This pattern already happened in the (blue collar) "trades". It started in the late 20th century. Now we have some of the worst built homes, buildings, roads, etc. This is certainly true in the USA, although I'd argue that it's the companies cutting costs (and corners) rather than the tradespeople becoming unskilled. In most first world countries there are standards and audits that keep companies (mostly) in line so that you don't get disasters-in-waiting like the new Bay Bridge. > Do we really want to make this even worse with automated AI copypasta pretending to be "engineering"? Nobody is fooled. Like with any force multiplier tool, you get the early days where every Joe is pumping out crap (same kind of thing happened with COBOL), and then the shake-out happens where companies realize that it's not a free lunch, and you need skilled people after all.