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> Not sure what to make of this. Not much as the sample has (literally) survival bias.

• mapontosevenths 19d ago
  I feel like it's just a statistical fact that many people used to visit and cancel visits there every day, but it's hard to say how unlikely this was without numbers.
  • Apocryphon 19d ago
    Seth MacFarlane and Mark Wahlberg were famously supposed to be on American Airlines Flight 11, and Jackie Chan was supposed to start filming a movie at the World Trade Center that very morning. I’m sure more near-brushes exist.
    • 2938177 18d ago
      Looking at the total set of people who cancelled last minute appears to be the correct start. Then you'd have to find all subsets who had any common friend like Epstein in this case. I'm sure you can find more such subsets. The problem with the Epstein subset is that 100% of his friends survived (Lutnick's brother mentioned above wasn't one) and that Epstein was far from a normal person who had already been involved in Iran Contra and Angola CIA affairs. How to take that into account statistically? It isn't just a matter of being statistically illiterate.
      • tgma 18d ago
        > 100% of his friends survived How do we know this? Not disputing this, I am just curious what evidence we have that ensures none of the dead were friends with him?