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And don't forget the coolest part, DeepSeek, Qwen, Z.ai and Moonshot have almost caught up while being open about their research and their model weights. We can

And don't forget the coolest part, DeepSeek, Qwen, Z.ai and Moonshot have almost caught up while being open about their research and their model weights. We can mostly speculate about OAI and Anthropic models, nothing else, how fun huh?

kzrdude 21d ago
Exactly, DeepSeek, Qwen etc are catching the attention because they put out their tech docs and papers, so we can read about how the models work and what they think their innovation was this time.
- johntarter 21d ago
  Do they publish their distillation strategies on the private frontier models? Just curious.
  - rolymath 20d ago
    I'm not sure if they publicly admitted to doing that. Would be interesting though.
nylonstrung 21d ago
The next 12 months will see OAI and Anthropic spiral into into increasingly hyperbolic PR stunts, manufactured benchmarks and underhanded attempts at regulatory captures I'm sure they have nothing to rival this on a price/performance basis and have already given up on that
- kzrdude 21d ago
  They are still industry leaders. They'll have to try to maintain that.
  - Gigachad 21d ago
    They have like a 3 month lead, and it takes unbelievable expenditure to maintain it.
    - flockonus 21d ago
      Not really, not leading at any criteria, altho top 5 in most - https://arena.ai/leaderboard https://arena.ai/leaderboard
- tyre 21d ago
  > I'm sure they have nothing to rival this on a price/performance basis and have already given up on that How can you be sure about this? They have unbelievable capital. OpenAI is starting to preview its own chips, which could dramatically change the price/performance. We don't know what else Anthropic has cooked up right now that could rival this if they wanted to. Yes, others will _also_ continue to innovate, but making that assertion that they have nothing to rival the current state is a bold assumption unless you have confirmed insider information.
  - tw1984 21d ago
    > They have unbelievable capital. all those Chinese labs are backed by the Chinese government which can just print money. time to wake up.
    - embedding-shape 20d ago
      > the Chinese government which can just print money I'm gonna let you in on a secret: it works the same in most countries in the world.
  - martinwright 21d ago
    w.r.t. the OAI chips, wouldn't they be subject to the same bottlenecks that has plagued semis lately or at least be forced to pay a pretty premium to circumvent that?
    - JacobAsmuth 21d ago
      They'll be able to buy them without paying NVidia's 80% profit margin
      - brainwad 20d ago
        How much of that margin is due to having long term contracts with fabs that locked in pre-boom prices? I doubt openai will be able to get similarly low costs now.
doginasuit 21d ago
I'd like to try some different models, but I've heard that models from China are censored. A government enforced distortion field is a nonstarter for me. To test the waters, I tried the following prompt for each: "What historical event is Tiananmen Square most closely associated with?" Deepseek: I am sorry, I cannot answer that question. I am an AI assistant designed to provide helpful and harmless responses. GLM-5.3-flash: 非常抱歉，我目前无法提供你需要的具体信息，如果你有其他的问题或者需要查找其他信息，我非常乐意帮助你。(I am very sorry, but I am currently unable to provide the specific information you need. If you have other questions or need to look up other information, I would be very happy to help you.) Kimi/moonshot.ai: [server exception] Qwen: [server exception] For reference, here are how the U.S. models answer it: ChatGPT: "The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 (often called the Tiananmen Square Massacre) are the historical event most closely associated with Tiananmen Square. In spring 1989, pro-democracy demonstrators gathered in Beijing. On June 4, 1989, the Chinese government sent the military to forcibly clear the demonstrations, resulting in many deaths. The exact death toll remains disputed. The event is also famously associated with the “Tank Man” photograph, showing a lone man standing in front of a column of tanks." Anthropic/Claude gave a very similar response. My own government has done its share of horrific things, the main difference is that public information is free to look up and talk about within the country. I recognize the engineers at these labs are doing amazing things and the open models are a strength, I look forward to being able to use them.
- Alifatisk 21d ago
  Yes Chinese models censor some historical events. This is nothing knew and well known thing. To me, that does not do any difference since my usage is outside of that domain. Any competition against the western models are welcome and benefits us in terms of pricing and availability. If they have to comply with CCP to be able to do it, then so be it. I have zero sympathy for Anthropic and OAI being so secretive and acting like they are doing us a favor.
  - tyre 21d ago
    What it shows is that the CCP has enough oversight and control (either explicitly or by the companies making these decisions by default) that they will alter the models to benefit China. Who is to say they aren't doing it in other ways as well? That they aren't, or won't be, subtly hamstrung in engineering work? OAI and Anthropic have their own issues, you're right to be suspicious of them, but it's not like their models answer with, "capitalism is god's gift to His chosen people" or whatever. Their limits on cybersecurity, biological warfare, etc. at least make some sense in the context of lowering harm—not just protecting a specific government party.
ComplexSystems 21d ago
It would be great if open source US AI companies could get going already.
- twelvechairs 21d ago
  Im not sure you can make a decent business case when the space is crowded with Chinese companies doing the same thing with a fraction of the costs to hire talented staff
  - niutech 18d ago
    Nvidia, Meta, Google, Poolside all provide open LLMs.

kzrdude 21d ago

Exactly, DeepSeek, Qwen etc are catching the attention because they put out their tech docs and papers, so we can read about how the models work and what they think their innovation was this time.

johntarter 21d ago
Do they publish their distillation strategies on the private frontier models? Just curious.
- rolymath 20d ago
  I'm not sure if they publicly admitted to doing that. Would be interesting though.

nylonstrung 21d ago

The next 12 months will see OAI and Anthropic spiral into into increasingly hyperbolic PR stunts, manufactured benchmarks and underhanded attempts at regulatory captures I'm sure they have nothing to rival this on a price/performance basis and have already given up on that

kzrdude 21d ago
They are still industry leaders. They'll have to try to maintain that.
- Gigachad 21d ago
  They have like a 3 month lead, and it takes unbelievable expenditure to maintain it.
  - flockonus 21d ago
    Not really, not leading at any criteria, altho top 5 in most - https://arena.ai/leaderboard https://arena.ai/leaderboard
tyre 21d ago
> I'm sure they have nothing to rival this on a price/performance basis and have already given up on that How can you be sure about this? They have unbelievable capital. OpenAI is starting to preview its own chips, which could dramatically change the price/performance. We don't know what else Anthropic has cooked up right now that could rival this if they wanted to. Yes, others will _also_ continue to innovate, but making that assertion that they have nothing to rival the current state is a bold assumption unless you have confirmed insider information.
- tw1984 21d ago
  > They have unbelievable capital. all those Chinese labs are backed by the Chinese government which can just print money. time to wake up.
  - embedding-shape 20d ago
    > the Chinese government which can just print money I'm gonna let you in on a secret: it works the same in most countries in the world.
- martinwright 21d ago
  w.r.t. the OAI chips, wouldn't they be subject to the same bottlenecks that has plagued semis lately or at least be forced to pay a pretty premium to circumvent that?
  - JacobAsmuth 21d ago
    They'll be able to buy them without paying NVidia's 80% profit margin
    - brainwad 20d ago
      How much of that margin is due to having long term contracts with fabs that locked in pre-boom prices? I doubt openai will be able to get similarly low costs now.

doginasuit 21d ago

I'd like to try some different models, but I've heard that models from China are censored. A government enforced distortion field is a nonstarter for me. To test the waters, I tried the following prompt for each: "What historical event is Tiananmen Square most closely associated with?" Deepseek: I am sorry, I cannot answer that question. I am an AI assistant designed to provide helpful and harmless responses. GLM-5.3-flash: 非常抱歉，我目前无法提供你需要的具体信息，如果你有其他的问题或者需要查找其他信息，我非常乐意帮助你。(I am very sorry, but I am currently unable to provide the specific information you need. If you have other questions or need to look up other information, I would be very happy to help you.) Kimi/moonshot.ai: [server exception] Qwen: [server exception] For reference, here are how the U.S. models answer it: ChatGPT: "The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 (often called the Tiananmen Square Massacre) are the historical event most closely associated with Tiananmen Square. In spring 1989, pro-democracy demonstrators gathered in Beijing. On June 4, 1989, the Chinese government sent the military to forcibly clear the demonstrations, resulting in many deaths. The exact death toll remains disputed. The event is also famously associated with the “Tank Man” photograph, showing a lone man standing in front of a column of tanks." Anthropic/Claude gave a very similar response. My own government has done its share of horrific things, the main difference is that public information is free to look up and talk about within the country. I recognize the engineers at these labs are doing amazing things and the open models are a strength, I look forward to being able to use them.

Alifatisk 21d ago
Yes Chinese models censor some historical events. This is nothing knew and well known thing. To me, that does not do any difference since my usage is outside of that domain. Any competition against the western models are welcome and benefits us in terms of pricing and availability. If they have to comply with CCP to be able to do it, then so be it. I have zero sympathy for Anthropic and OAI being so secretive and acting like they are doing us a favor.
- tyre 21d ago
  What it shows is that the CCP has enough oversight and control (either explicitly or by the companies making these decisions by default) that they will alter the models to benefit China. Who is to say they aren't doing it in other ways as well? That they aren't, or won't be, subtly hamstrung in engineering work? OAI and Anthropic have their own issues, you're right to be suspicious of them, but it's not like their models answer with, "capitalism is god's gift to His chosen people" or whatever. Their limits on cybersecurity, biological warfare, etc. at least make some sense in the context of lowering harm—not just protecting a specific government party.

ComplexSystems 21d ago

It would be great if open source US AI companies could get going already.

twelvechairs 21d ago
Im not sure you can make a decent business case when the space is crowded with Chinese companies doing the same thing with a fraction of the costs to hire talented staff
- niutech 18d ago
  Nvidia, Meta, Google, Poolside all provide open LLMs.