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> I've lived in Taiwan for a large part of my life. Sounds like you've been fed the US anti-China propaganda for the large part of your life as well. _China d

• re-thc 23d ago
  > _China doesn't need to invade Taiwan._ All your points consider what China can do but not how others would respond. Blocking Taiwan when the whole AI economy is running on it will invoke lots of countries to go up in arms. There was a quote from US military that it'd cost less to fight than watch Taiwan fall (invasion or not). > 4. China is close to producing industry-grade EUV No where near close. At least not production grade at massive scale. > * Establish a total naval and air blockade of Taiwan using their fleets stationed in Ningbo and Zhanjiang. Doesn't work. If they do that the US, JP and others can also blockade around Shanghai, Hong Kong and the other ports. > They won't need TSMC soon Taiwan is not just TSMC. There are thousands to millions of things involving Taiwan you're likely not aware of and they might not even be AI or semi related.
  • d5lt5 23d ago
    > All your points consider what China can do but not how others would respond. US backed off last year when there were talks about protecting Taiwan. They pulled Patriot missiles from Taiwan and South Korea too. China and Japan have a beef. Considering the atrocities Japan did in China, the conversation won't be friendly. None of these are good for Taiwan, during the times when its political system is failing. > No where near close. At least not production grade at massive scale. It looks like you have knowledge of the status of that super-secret government project. Can you share some details then? > Doesn't work. If they do that the US, JP and others can also blockade around Shanghai, Hong Kong and the other ports. US cannot blockade Hormuz, as we've seen. JP cannot do that with their current constitution unless they change it (the current government is on the road to it, though). What we've also seen is that Chinese fishing fleet had a military blockade exercise [0]. > Taiwan is not just TSMC. There are thousands to millions of things involving Taiwan you're likely not aware of and they might not even be AI or semi related. All is around semiconductors. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/01/16/world/asia/china-ships-fishing-militia-blockade.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/01/16/world/asia/ch...
    • leptons 23d ago
      >US backed off last year when there were talks about protecting Taiwan. They pulled Patriot missiles from Taiwan and South Korea too. >US cannot blockade Hormuz, as we've seen. JP cannot do that with their current constitution unless they change it (the current government is on the road to it, though). If China really wants to fuck with Taiwan, they had better do it soon while the most incompetent US administration ever to hold office is still there. Because there is change coming to the US and the next president isn't likely to be such a complete moron.
      • d5lt5 23d ago
        > Because there is change coming to the US and the next president isn't likely to be such a complete moron. All past elections prove you otherwise.
• sofixa 23d ago
  > _China doesn't need to invade Taiwan_ Russia didn't need to invade Ukraine either. But nonetheless China is clearly preparing itself to be ready to be able to invade, with aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, dual purpose roll-on/roll-off carriers. It doesn't mean it will, but that it wants to be able to. So basically it will depend on a single dictator's whim if they do or don't. > Establish a total naval and air blockade of Taiwan using their fleets stationed in Ningbo and Zhanjiang Which would be considered an act of war, so it's the same scenario again. > There is a substantial opposition in Taiwan that want reunification (~20% of population support directly Li-Wun) 20% is more than the % of people in the Donbass that wanted unification with Russia, and we can see how well that went. And it wasn't a dangerous amphibious assault against an island with shit terrain.
  • d5lt5 23d ago
    > Russia didn't need to invade Ukraine either. Arguable, they had to after the 2008 Buharest NATO summit and Ukraine's militarization going forward, and eradication of Russian language and Russian-speaking population in the east. > Which would be considered an act of war, so it's the same scenario again. China considers Taiwan their territory, who is there to protect Taiwan? US? >20% is more than the % of people in the Donbass that wanted unification with Russia 20% plus part of those white-collar workers who are a backbone of the Taiwan's economy and politics and can be left jobless after China achieves EUV and puts TSMC out of monopoly. Let's be real. Trump demanded TSMC to invest 100B into US factories and they complied [0]. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/03/tsmc-to-announce-100-billion-investment-in-us-chip-plants.html?msockid=3f19508d8c6c6f7a057243b78dbe6ea6 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/03/tsmc-to-announce-100-billion...
    • sofixa 23d ago
      > Arguable, they had to after the 2008 Buharest NATO summit How dare the countries threatened by Russia, who had seen how Russia invaded and brutalised multiple countries - Moldova, Checnya, Georgia twice - seek protection from Russia. This totally excuses Russia invading and brutalising again, of course. > Ukraine's militarization going forward The country was literally invaded (Crimea and Donbass), what the hell did you or the idiots in the Kremlin expect? That it will just sit and allow Russia to take more of its territory unopposed? That it will become a pliant vassal state again? > eradication of Russian language and Russian-speaking population in the east Such eradication that the country elected a Russian speaker to be president, on a platform of reconciliation with Russia. So much so, that his opposition called him a Russian puppet. That guy is Zelenskyy. I'm sorry, but you're either out of your mind, or have been completely brainwashed. Russia chose to invade multiple of its neighbours, and did unspeakable atrocities every time. The only one to fault for all of this, and everyone around them seeking protection from this, is them. This imperialist nonsense brutality does not belong in the 21st century, and neither does its apologia. And no, I don't care about the whataboutism you're preparing to "defend" these actions with, it's beyond irrelevant. It's what the Russian state has been about since it came into being out of the ruins of the USSR. We should have never treated them as anything else.
• mr_toad 23d ago
  > Establish a total naval and air blockade of Taiwan using their fleets stationed in Ningbo and Zhanjiang. I would not want to be maintaining a long-term naval blockade while constantly looking over my shoulder worrying about surprise attacks. Everyone knows where you are, and it would give plenty of time for a counter offensive to be planned. The US has something like 50 attack submarines, and a surprise attack from all of them at once would be a nightmare scenario for any fleet. In the era of drones and missiles having your navy tied down in a blockade like that makes it all the more vulnerable.
  • d5lt5 23d ago
    US had all of that and still was unable to do anything meaningful around Hormuz. US had 10,000 miles of power projection, while China prepared for 100 miles of it for the past 20 years, come on. The answer is EUV alternative that would render TSMC useless. I understand that majority of people here cannot see the bigger picture, by design.