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Sam Altman says a lot of crazy stuff, but I don’t think that is where the ‘bubble’ is coming from. In recent months we’ve had the first automated unmanned amph

by bonesss 24d ago

Sam Altman says a lot of crazy stuff, but I don’t think that is where the ‘bubble’ is coming from. In recent months we’ve had the first automated unmanned amphibious assault, the daily drone count in our hot wars is jumping by leaps and bounds, and arms suppliers are promising future drone shipments in the hundred thousand unit range. The ten year picture for reactive combined swarm intelligence on the battlefield is promising to be widespread, highly lucrative, and in need of constant adaptation to near-peer efforts. Datacenters in space are dumb, datacenters in space to power orbital weapons networks and rapid response capabilities make sense. On top of that we have international trade, scalable customer service, and a first pass 80/20 answer for businesses focused elsewhere. Shitty, maybe, overpriced, maybe, but useful enough our grandkids are gonna use ‘em. In both cases, as well as potential new LLM-like tech, there’s an argument to be made for being a leader now to dominate the future. That means compute and tech positioning, and memory & GPU deals. YouTube was a money loser, Google was ‘losing’ money on them for years, YouTube didn’t have a sustainable business model. YouTube was the biggest, though, and whatever premium Google paid to be #1 then meant they were #1 when the online video business model matured. Now they’re printing money with a platform outcompeting news, social, and video platforms.

porridgeraisin 24d ago
Sam altman himself has sort of cooled that rhetoric down - see his recent podcast (frankly I forgot who it was with, I only saw clips of it - but he was wearing orange-brown and had an applovin mug). Maybe it is to contrast against anthropic where they are leaning hard into the EA party line, not sure. This guy always seems to have an ulterior motive behind everything though. One line I remember was that he said the disruption is not happening the way they thought after GPT4 due to inertia bla bla and that it will be slower gradual change and they got the timelines wrong. And yes on the defense usecase. That is the main reason governments are giving a hoot about AI. Orbital datacenters too, I know people working on the Indian one, it's entirely for defense usecases. Basically for missile stuff.

by bonesss 24d ago

porridgeraisin 24d ago

Sam altman himself has sort of cooled that rhetoric down - see his recent podcast (frankly I forgot who it was with, I only saw clips of it - but he was wearing orange-brown and had an applovin mug). Maybe it is to contrast against anthropic where they are leaning hard into the EA party line, not sure. This guy always seems to have an ulterior motive behind everything though. One line I remember was that he said the disruption is not happening the way they thought after GPT4 due to inertia bla bla and that it will be slower gradual change and they got the timelines wrong. And yes on the defense usecase. That is the main reason governments are giving a hoot about AI. Orbital datacenters too, I know people working on the Indian one, it's entirely for defense usecases. Basically for missile stuff.