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I think quite cheap models will probably work with translation (I think for many use cases Google's now fairly old tech works well enough and is free?). The ma

I think quite cheap models will probably work with translation (I think for many use cases Google's now fairly old tech works well enough and is free?). The main problem is I think you're assuming because the current translation market is large (I'm just going to assume it's ~100B in size just from a cursory search), then it will remain large with LLMs. If LLMs are much cheaper than humans, even with a lot of growth in translation volume the total spend may not compensate for it (again most of the volume will probably be using almost free models?). Another is assuming that because something is valuable you can charge a lot for it. Like, oxygen from air is extremely valuable to us. If oxygen somehow depleted we would die almost instantly. It does not mean everyone goes around purchasing oxygen or even less that you can charge absurd amounts for it.

carlosjobim 24d ago
LLMs are creating a new translation market. Before AI translation became available, I would hire professional translators. Their rate was about $50-100 for a detailed product page into one language, and it would take them a few days to deliver. Now with AI translation, I pay about $120 per year for unlimited translation. Meaning dozens of product pages into 5 languages, plus e-mail back and forth with hundreds of customers. All instantly at my convenience. What this means is that a whole lot of people, sectors and businesses who would never hire professional translator can now have high quality translation at their disposal for a cheap price. > Another is assuming that because something is valuable you can charge a lot for it. Even if LLM translation won't deliver trillions of dollars in income to the AI companies, it will without a doubt deliver trillions of dollars in value to customers and users within the coming few years. Good human translators are still higher in quality than any AI and will always be. But AI translation is currently far beyond good enough for all use cases, except fine literature and maybe complicated juridical stuff. But I'm not familiar with those sectors.

carlosjobim 24d ago

LLMs are creating a new translation market. Before AI translation became available, I would hire professional translators. Their rate was about $50-100 for a detailed product page into one language, and it would take them a few days to deliver. Now with AI translation, I pay about $120 per year for unlimited translation. Meaning dozens of product pages into 5 languages, plus e-mail back and forth with hundreds of customers. All instantly at my convenience. What this means is that a whole lot of people, sectors and businesses who would never hire professional translator can now have high quality translation at their disposal for a cheap price. > Another is assuming that because something is valuable you can charge a lot for it. Even if LLM translation won't deliver trillions of dollars in income to the AI companies, it will without a doubt deliver trillions of dollars in value to customers and users within the coming few years. Good human translators are still higher in quality than any AI and will always be. But AI translation is currently far beyond good enough for all use cases, except fine literature and maybe complicated juridical stuff. But I'm not familiar with those sectors.