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Unfortunately for Canada, you guys have screwed up. Why? Because you're completely dependent on the US for energy exports. All that oil you dig up and turn the

by jmyeet 25d ago

Unfortunately for Canada, you guys have screwed up. Why? Because you're completely dependent on the US for energy exports. All that oil you dig up and turn the landscape into the Moon for goes out via pipes to the US from where it's refined and/or exported. Canada has almost no oil export infrastructure of its own (meaning pipelines going to ports).

bawolff 25d ago
In retrospect, (original) Trudeau's national energy program does sound good right about now. Alas you can't change the past. However, you are overstating the level of dependence. It is significant, but certainly not total. It also cuts both ways to a certain extent.
hluska 25d ago
The Port of Vancouver just did 24.4 million metric tonnes and that’s just going to rise. Thanks for your (fake) concern but we’ll be fine.
- jmyeet 25d ago
  Which is just over 10% of Canada's oil exports. How does that invalidate my point? Also, I explicitly said "energy". That includes electricity (you can't export that anywhere else really) and natural gas (almost all of which is used domestically or exported to the US).
  - theluketaylor 24d ago
    This will catalyze efforts to build more east-west energy infrastructure here in Canada, both oil and electricity. The last time the US made a serious run at Canadian sovereignty we built the Canadian Pacific rail to connect the country end to end. The same thing will happen this time, with pipelines and HVDC grid connections. Short term the US needs the energy we sell as they don’t have sources to replace it with. Long term the pieces are already moving into place for more O&G exports via the pacific and selling electricity to ourselves with stronger grid connections. Our reliance on US trade will diminish slowly, then all at once.
Fumblenuts 25d ago
Last I've checked Canada had some oil pipelines built + new ones being built to the east coast and west coast. It's something that's been in the works for years before trump. Also your comment implies that Canada's only export to the US is oil. Canada also exports lumber and agricultural goods, as well as electricity, amongst other things. And the reason why Canada can't just cave is that Trump will just continue to increase his demands, amongst other reasons. Even in this series of negociations when they finally came close to something the US added demands remove Canada's requirement for French on their packaging (even though French is 1 of Canada's 2 official languages) and separate trade ties with other countries. Is shit gonna suck for the next while for Canada? Yes, but there is literally nothing they can do to prevent it other than give up their autonomy as a country and become a US puppet, which a vast majority of Canadians are adamently against except for a tiny minority in Alberta.
- jmyeet 25d ago
  This is a real pancakes and waffles moment. God, the Internet sucks some times. Where did I say "only"? As best as I can tell ~40% of Canada's exports to the US are energy, making it the most dominant export sector by far. One estimate I see is ~$160 annual value [1]. By comparison, lumber accounts for ~$6B. That's a rounding error. Energy is the most significant Canadian export and it's deeply tied to the US (unfortunately). [1]: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2026/market-snapshot-overview-of-2025-canada-us-energy-trade.html https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/ma...
Gud 25d ago
Looks to me that the USA has screwed up, bullying all its allies. The USA will be left in the dust.
jamaliki 24d ago
May I ask what you think will happen to US gas prices if Canadian oil exports to the US (over 4 million barrels per day) are made more expensive (with tariffs or export restrictions)? In the midst of the Iran war, Ukraine’s attacks against Russian refinery capacity, and the Bab el Mendeb closure, many of these issues are directly caused by the same US administration. In the current context, who do you think has more negotiating leverage?
behole 24d ago
Product of propaganda
slashdev 24d ago
This is true. But it’s more of a pricing power problem. The US can no more rid itself of the dependency on Canadian heavy oil than Canada could on exporting to the US. We’re bound together on that front, and it’s why oil has been exempt from tariffs. If Canada had the ability to sell that oil on the global market, we’d get a better price for it (if you only have one customer you can sell to, you have little pricing power). Western Canada Select trades at a discount to WTI. US refineries are built for a mix of heavy and light oil and that’s not practical to change. The US can’t just replace Canada with its own oil or imports from elsewhere. What about Venezuela? Another potential source of heavy oil? It would take decades of investment and development to bring that up to the point where it produces an extra 4 million barrels a day for export. With the uncertain political environment there, it’s unclear where that would come from.

by jmyeet 25d ago

bawolff 25d ago

In retrospect, (original) Trudeau's national energy program does sound good right about now. Alas you can't change the past. However, you are overstating the level of dependence. It is significant, but certainly not total. It also cuts both ways to a certain extent.

hluska 25d ago

The Port of Vancouver just did 24.4 million metric tonnes and that’s just going to rise. Thanks for your (fake) concern but we’ll be fine.

jmyeet 25d ago
Which is just over 10% of Canada's oil exports. How does that invalidate my point? Also, I explicitly said "energy". That includes electricity (you can't export that anywhere else really) and natural gas (almost all of which is used domestically or exported to the US).
- theluketaylor 24d ago
  This will catalyze efforts to build more east-west energy infrastructure here in Canada, both oil and electricity. The last time the US made a serious run at Canadian sovereignty we built the Canadian Pacific rail to connect the country end to end. The same thing will happen this time, with pipelines and HVDC grid connections. Short term the US needs the energy we sell as they don’t have sources to replace it with. Long term the pieces are already moving into place for more O&G exports via the pacific and selling electricity to ourselves with stronger grid connections. Our reliance on US trade will diminish slowly, then all at once.

Fumblenuts 25d ago

Last I've checked Canada had some oil pipelines built + new ones being built to the east coast and west coast. It's something that's been in the works for years before trump. Also your comment implies that Canada's only export to the US is oil. Canada also exports lumber and agricultural goods, as well as electricity, amongst other things. And the reason why Canada can't just cave is that Trump will just continue to increase his demands, amongst other reasons. Even in this series of negociations when they finally came close to something the US added demands remove Canada's requirement for French on their packaging (even though French is 1 of Canada's 2 official languages) and separate trade ties with other countries. Is shit gonna suck for the next while for Canada? Yes, but there is literally nothing they can do to prevent it other than give up their autonomy as a country and become a US puppet, which a vast majority of Canadians are adamently against except for a tiny minority in Alberta.

jmyeet 25d ago
This is a real pancakes and waffles moment. God, the Internet sucks some times. Where did I say "only"? As best as I can tell ~40% of Canada's exports to the US are energy, making it the most dominant export sector by far. One estimate I see is ~$160 annual value [1]. By comparison, lumber accounts for ~$6B. That's a rounding error. Energy is the most significant Canadian export and it's deeply tied to the US (unfortunately). [1]: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2026/market-snapshot-overview-of-2025-canada-us-energy-trade.html https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/ma...

Gud 25d ago

Looks to me that the USA has screwed up, bullying all its allies. The USA will be left in the dust.

jamaliki 24d ago

May I ask what you think will happen to US gas prices if Canadian oil exports to the US (over 4 million barrels per day) are made more expensive (with tariffs or export restrictions)? In the midst of the Iran war, Ukraine’s attacks against Russian refinery capacity, and the Bab el Mendeb closure, many of these issues are directly caused by the same US administration. In the current context, who do you think has more negotiating leverage?

behole 24d ago

Product of propaganda

slashdev 24d ago

This is true. But it’s more of a pricing power problem. The US can no more rid itself of the dependency on Canadian heavy oil than Canada could on exporting to the US. We’re bound together on that front, and it’s why oil has been exempt from tariffs. If Canada had the ability to sell that oil on the global market, we’d get a better price for it (if you only have one customer you can sell to, you have little pricing power). Western Canada Select trades at a discount to WTI. US refineries are built for a mix of heavy and light oil and that’s not practical to change. The US can’t just replace Canada with its own oil or imports from elsewhere. What about Venezuela? Another potential source of heavy oil? It would take decades of investment and development to bring that up to the point where it produces an extra 4 million barrels a day for export. With the uncertain political environment there, it’s unclear where that would come from.