5 ms·

That a third or more still support him seems crazy to me.

nilamo 26d ago
But it's an approval rating. Of the people surveyed. Who chose to reply. A lot of extrapolations are made out of the 10 people who responded.
- rfrey 25d ago
  You do not believe in statistics as a discipline?
  - nilamo 25d ago
    I don't think most polling qualifies as statistics, without providing info like selection criteria or number of respondents. Otherwise we'll walk right into another situation like when Trump won an election while polling in near last place. Or maybe I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint.
    - deleted 25d ago
      [deleted]
    - verteu 25d ago
      > I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint. The state of the art (which confirms this ~35% approval number) is far more rigorous than that. Start with a meta-review of historical accuracy and transparency, eg: https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulleti... Details on methodology and sample size can be Googled, eg: https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ , https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-how-washington-post-polling-works/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/ev... , https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+School+polling+methodology https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+Sch..., etc. Sample size is less important than you might think, due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence...
  - deleted 25d ago
    [deleted]
AngryData 25d ago
Yeah but you can get 30% of people to support almost anything once you get them hooked. Some people are always going to be dumb or too stubborn to ever admit they were wrong.
steve_adams_86 24d ago
Even 10% would concern me.

But it's an approval rating. Of the people surveyed. Who chose to reply. A lot of extrapolations are made out of the 10 people who responded.

rfrey 25d ago
You do not believe in statistics as a discipline?
- nilamo 25d ago
  I don't think most polling qualifies as statistics, without providing info like selection criteria or number of respondents. Otherwise we'll walk right into another situation like when Trump won an election while polling in near last place. Or maybe I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint.
  - deleted 25d ago
    [deleted]
  - verteu 25d ago
    > I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint. The state of the art (which confirms this ~35% approval number) is far more rigorous than that. Start with a meta-review of historical accuracy and transparency, eg: https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulleti... Details on methodology and sample size can be Googled, eg: https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ , https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-how-washington-post-polling-works/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/ev... , https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+School+polling+methodology https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+Sch..., etc. Sample size is less important than you might think, due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence...
- deleted 25d ago
  [deleted]

AngryData 25d ago

Yeah but you can get 30% of people to support almost anything once you get them hooked. Some people are always going to be dumb or too stubborn to ever admit they were wrong.

steve_adams_86 24d ago

Even 10% would concern me.