6 ms·

That would be a great outcome of this situation. I doubt it will happen though: unlike fuel efficiency rules, there aren’t likely to be external pressures like

by porcoda 29d ago

That would be a great outcome of this situation. I doubt it will happen though: unlike fuel efficiency rules, there aren’t likely to be external pressures like that on software. Outside developer circles most users likely are unaware of memory usage and often just accept that computers are slow and unreliable sometimes. That’s different from drivers who see their fuel gauge and the corresponding cost of fuel, and are thus very aware of what fuel efficiency means.

trhway 29d ago
The situation may be even more different from fuel. The memory shortage may be just a first of such crisis to come - the shortage of anything related to AI/robotics (from electricity to materials needed to produce robots and for the robots to produce even more robots). I think we have a runaway situation - the more of AI/robots produced, the more is demand for such production. The difference from classic production/manufacturing here is that AI/robots is a consumer itself. In the past the only consumers were people and human population growth is slow whereis AI/robots "population" is starting to explode. (Like Industrial Revolution on steroids - back then getting a steam engine to power your machinery was not just a jump in productivity, it was a jump without which you couldn't compete, and so everybody was getting it https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2RFT119/illustration-of-factories-adjacent-to-the-leeds-and-liverpool-canal-in-leeds-in-the-1850s-2RFT119.jpg https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2RFT119/illustration-of-factories-... (and just for fun compare to https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6BC2YPEXOZCGJKEO4LWH7CTLII.jpg?auth=064cd976d30063b9c49ea872d9c510fc431913d2f42bc9896cb28510800b806e&width=1920&quality=80 https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6BC2YPEXOZCGJKEO4LWH7CTLI... ) - fortunately for England back then getting a steam engine to produce more steam engines to thus make more and longer jumps in productivity didn't really work that fast and efficient whereis today the situation is becoming more favorable for such productivity multiplication) Wrt. the memory efficiency - considering that AI is going to be the main workload by far and thus will vacuum in majority of the available optimization resources - be it humans or coding AI - i think it will be even less chances that any meaningful resources will be spent on optimizing on the fringe, ie. the users' OS/browser/etc.
- lordnacho 29d ago
  This makes me think of Factorio. When you make a breakthrough like getting robots, what do you do with it? Use it to make more robot factories. But in the real world, haven't we got to see whether all this investment will pay off? What happens if it turns out people actually don't want to pay for this?
  - m4rtink 28d ago
    We have been there before, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania The companies go bankrupt their stuff is sold for pennies & investors loose their money. The now super cheap stuff might get reused for something else, that is actually profitable. Or will just get dumped, like many unprofitable or never finished lines from the railway mania days.
  - BearOso 28d ago
    People don't want to pay for it. It's fine when you can buy a monthly plan and get lots of usage at the company's loss, but that's not sustainable. Once everyone has to pay enough for the usage to just break even, it's going to be a shitshow. And what's worse, they'll have to make up for all the debt they're accumulating now, so even pricier. Basically, individuals will only stay at the current massive discount. Corporations that are paying token costs right now are dialing back as they realize it's not worth the expense. We are going to have an AI crash, and the only thing left are going to be the efficient on-device or local models, which are already starting to bridge the gap.

by porcoda 29d ago

trhway 29d ago

The situation may be even more different from fuel. The memory shortage may be just a first of such crisis to come - the shortage of anything related to AI/robotics (from electricity to materials needed to produce robots and for the robots to produce even more robots). I think we have a runaway situation - the more of AI/robots produced, the more is demand for such production. The difference from classic production/manufacturing here is that AI/robots is a consumer itself. In the past the only consumers were people and human population growth is slow whereis AI/robots "population" is starting to explode. (Like Industrial Revolution on steroids - back then getting a steam engine to power your machinery was not just a jump in productivity, it was a jump without which you couldn't compete, and so everybody was getting it https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2RFT119/illustration-of-factories-adjacent-to-the-leeds-and-liverpool-canal-in-leeds-in-the-1850s-2RFT119.jpg https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2RFT119/illustration-of-factories-... (and just for fun compare to https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6BC2YPEXOZCGJKEO4LWH7CTLII.jpg?auth=064cd976d30063b9c49ea872d9c510fc431913d2f42bc9896cb28510800b806e&width=1920&quality=80 https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6BC2YPEXOZCGJKEO4LWH7CTLI... ) - fortunately for England back then getting a steam engine to produce more steam engines to thus make more and longer jumps in productivity didn't really work that fast and efficient whereis today the situation is becoming more favorable for such productivity multiplication) Wrt. the memory efficiency - considering that AI is going to be the main workload by far and thus will vacuum in majority of the available optimization resources - be it humans or coding AI - i think it will be even less chances that any meaningful resources will be spent on optimizing on the fringe, ie. the users' OS/browser/etc.

lordnacho 29d ago
This makes me think of Factorio. When you make a breakthrough like getting robots, what do you do with it? Use it to make more robot factories. But in the real world, haven't we got to see whether all this investment will pay off? What happens if it turns out people actually don't want to pay for this?
- m4rtink 28d ago
  We have been there before, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania The companies go bankrupt their stuff is sold for pennies & investors loose their money. The now super cheap stuff might get reused for something else, that is actually profitable. Or will just get dumped, like many unprofitable or never finished lines from the railway mania days.
- BearOso 28d ago
  People don't want to pay for it. It's fine when you can buy a monthly plan and get lots of usage at the company's loss, but that's not sustainable. Once everyone has to pay enough for the usage to just break even, it's going to be a shitshow. And what's worse, they'll have to make up for all the debt they're accumulating now, so even pricier. Basically, individuals will only stay at the current massive discount. Corporations that are paying token costs right now are dialing back as they realize it's not worth the expense. We are going to have an AI crash, and the only thing left are going to be the efficient on-device or local models, which are already starting to bridge the gap.