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I also tried to evaluate this claim that households have less real income after debt service. It is difficult because it depends on many nuances, like whether w
by sobellian 1mo ago
I also tried to evaluate this claim that households have less real income after debt service. It is difficult because it depends on many nuances, like whether we care about all credit, or simply revolving credit. Your graph is interesting but difficult to interpret - the % change per annum is declining, but that's reasoning from some higher order derivative. I looked up a few more data series.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL153166006Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL153166006Q - consumer credit indeed rises from 1984 to present, but from ~17% to a peak of ~25% to the present ~22%. This seems to be more than adequately compensated by real household income growth over the same period. Even if we take the peak value of ~25% that leaves real household income after subtracting consumer credit higher than in 1984. But note that this series isn't debt service payments, it's credit stock. It doesn't make much sense to subtract. Unfortunately we don't have consumer credit payments going back this far.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=TDSP%2CMDSP%2CCDSP%2CFODSP%2CBOGZ1FL153166006Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=TDSP%2CMDSP%2CCDSP%2CF... - it is difficult to find debt service payments going back to 1980. Interestingly the measures relating to debt service payments appear to be basically flat or even slightly negative over this time period, though the consumer debt service series only goes back to 2005.
So to my eyes it is difficult to support the notion that income-minus-debt-service has deflated over the past fifty years. I also find it difficult to take this data and state the stronger conclusion that half the population requires consumer debt to afford basic necessities but some fraction did not 50 years ago. The median appears to be better off.
- altairprime 29d agohttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XTtA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XTtA — I broke apart individual wages into quintiles and applied some rudimentary inflation adjustment, and the result is definitely mixed. I would estimate this adds up to sub-1% total growth in wages over 40 years, but further math could determine the effective compounded growth rate from then until now. A wage disparity effect is apparent: the higher your quintile, the less likely you are to encounter wages decreases. (One could determine the inflation-adjusted wage 'thresholds' of each quintile per year to pursue that line of research further.) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XTuu https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XTuu — Household cash (green), household consumer credit debt (blue); % increase in debt service payments per year (red), % inflation (orange). When consumer credit was bulk-withdrawn during and after Covid, cash balances spiked as one would expect — but household debt service payments started growing faster than inflation, which is another indicator that households are accruing debt faster than they can pay it off — no one otherwise wants to incur 25-35% APR interest payments if they can avoid it. (The thin green line is Households sans Nonprofits, which I chose not to try and compensate for due to how small the difference is.)