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It doesn't have to be "externally hosted, proprietary AI model"! The argument is against "self-assembled small AI pieces" versus frontier monolithic models. A)

It doesn't have to be "externally hosted, proprietary AI model"! The argument is against "self-assembled small AI pieces" versus frontier monolithic models. A) You can always self-host something like Kimi, DeepSeek, or GLM. B) Just because you use a specific proprietary AI for programming doesn't actually bind you to that provider in any meaningful way. The authored code remains even if you stop paying them! Of course, if you use AI as an active component in some sort of service, then the EULA, rug-pulls, etc... suddenly start to matter. That's a different story.

SCHiM 1mo ago
Anthropic* I think I agree with the bitter lesson, but I wish I weren't :) > A) You can always self-host something like Kimi, DeepSeek, or GLM. I mean, one could rent-a-box for, like, 10$$ per hour? Agentic loop development gets really expensive at scale with larger models, like, if you want to A/B test two tool schemas to see which works better, and you run 100 benchmarks... But why are you so convinced the bitter lesson is true, and it's not just a temporary lead? Proper agent loops and RLVR are like, 3 years old at this point? At some point, right, the compute can't scale it out further? And at _that_ point the lead position might go back to: highest compute + smartest designed smarts. Against my somewhat better judgement I'm currently "assembling small AI pieces" :(, for lack of access to unrestricted models for offensive security work and, ehh, funds. It's _okay_ so far, I'm running private benchmarks and look at the trajectories. To be perfectly honest, qwen is _really_ doing well, finishing quite complex chains without a lot of smarts in the prompt. Just "Go pwn {server}, use these {tools}". But, there are some smarts embedded in those tools. Helpful errors, retries, benchmarked/handy representation. Strict validation of what the model tries to do, etc. > The authored code remains even if you stop paying them! This is true, but my point is that they will outcompete you if you happen to stumble on something that actually makes good money using LLMs and becomes popular. Obviously, if you don't then they won't. > Of course, if you use AI as an active component in some sort of service, then the EULA, rug-pulls, etc... suddenly start to matter. That's a different story. That's the plan hehe

SCHiM 1mo ago

Anthropic* I think I agree with the bitter lesson, but I wish I weren't :) > A) You can always self-host something like Kimi, DeepSeek, or GLM. I mean, one could rent-a-box for, like, 10$$ per hour? Agentic loop development gets really expensive at scale with larger models, like, if you want to A/B test two tool schemas to see which works better, and you run 100 benchmarks... But why are you so convinced the bitter lesson is true, and it's not just a temporary lead? Proper agent loops and RLVR are like, 3 years old at this point? At some point, right, the compute can't scale it out further? And at _that_ point the lead position might go back to: highest compute + smartest designed smarts. Against my somewhat better judgement I'm currently "assembling small AI pieces" :(, for lack of access to unrestricted models for offensive security work and, ehh, funds. It's _okay_ so far, I'm running private benchmarks and look at the trajectories. To be perfectly honest, qwen is _really_ doing well, finishing quite complex chains without a lot of smarts in the prompt. Just "Go pwn {server}, use these {tools}". But, there are some smarts embedded in those tools. Helpful errors, retries, benchmarked/handy representation. Strict validation of what the model tries to do, etc. > The authored code remains even if you stop paying them! This is true, but my point is that they will outcompete you if you happen to stumble on something that actually makes good money using LLMs and becomes popular. Obviously, if you don't then they won't. > Of course, if you use AI as an active component in some sort of service, then the EULA, rug-pulls, etc... suddenly start to matter. That's a different story. That's the plan hehe