7 ms·
Without knowing all the details, there are a few reasons that explain the outperformance: - long bull market lower the probability of achieving results above m
by dbs 1mo ago
Without knowing all the details, there are a few reasons that explain the outperformance:
- long bull market lower the probability of achieving results above market, especially if the performance is concentrated in a select group of stocks/industries
- not knowing the factors in detail, but you might not have a period long to assess the performance. Factor performance tends to be attached to "performance regimes"
- the factors you considered in the past were underpriced, and in your evaluation window they are no longer in such state, so expected returns are lower
- market has catched up on the factors that you are using (your "free lunch" has been eaten). I guess there's a reason why nowadays quants freely join podcasts while a few years ago we had to be very careful in interviews ("do they want to hire me or do they just want to know what I'm doing/not doing")
- caiocmpaes 1mo agoOps... My bad! I forgot to put in the article the number of stocks. When I run these tests, my database had about 3900 stocks. Every day I run a cron job to check delistings from SEC fillings. Then, this number decreases a few units every day. So, replying your bullet points: 1. Full data is about 3900 common stocks listed in Nasdaq and NYSE. 2. I had outperformances for both 5y, 10y and 20y ago until Today (first chart). 3. I don't understood your point 3. Seems the opposite of what happened to me. 4. Agree with you. Market adjusts accordingly to the winners. Also a pull quote from the article. Nice! Thank You for your comment!