Let me check my maths... So population of london is 9M Say your network and you is 250 people. (friends, colleague, family, neighbours, community) Probabilit

Let me check my maths... So population of london is 9M Say your network and you is 250 people. (friends, colleague, family, neighbours, community) Probability (P) of not being chosen[0]: 1-200/9M Probability of your network (PN) not being chosen[1]: P^250 Probability of your network not being chosen everyday for 1 year: PN^365 = 13% I'm not very confident with statistics but if I assembled that correctly that means in any given year, you'd only expect 13% odds that no one you care about was a victim of phone snatching crime, That's kind of bleak tbh [0] realistically the odds are a lot worse and the probability won't be uniformly distributed: people living in Surrey or Chiswick are going to have different odds to someone who lives in Soho or works in Central London. Suddenly the "at risk" population can get pretty small when you think about it because grannies and 2 year olds aren't walking around Warren Street station at peak theft hours with their phone out. [1] I realise that this doesn't handle replacement but for big population and small subset this should approximate