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The cure for high prices is high prices. Selling out creates scalpers and sometimes even a speculative bubble. High prices means producers invest in new fabs (t

by wisty 1mo ago

The cure for high prices is high prices. Selling out creates scalpers and sometimes even a speculative bubble. High prices means producers invest in new fabs (though it may take time).

Forgeties79 1mo ago
>though it may take time That’s what makes this so distinct so it probably shouldn’t just be some offhand parenthetical at the end. It’s incredibly expensive, it takes a long time, and it’s incredibly specialized. You can absolutely forget the idea of a “disruptive startup” entering that space too.
- spockz 1mo ago
  Maybe not a traditional disruptive startup but isn’t CXMT from China stepping in to build all those fabs? Previously investing in that space didn’t make a lot of sense. Now that there are a lot of consumers willing to buy something they can build and sell at a price between the previous low point and the current high point. The only tricky thing is that the current shortages need to continue until the fans are well up and running. Even if the supply side suddenly crashes due to the AI bubble bursting or someone inventing a way to only need 1/10 of RAM, I can imagine them keeping the prices relatively high.
  - Forgeties79 1mo ago
    It takes several years to get production and distribution started. You’re not going to see a rush chasing current consumer ram prices like you would a popular toy or something.
    - spockz 1mo ago
      Distribution is already mostly in place. The existing channels have run dry so they can be filled with the new supply. Building things happens a bit quicker in PRC compared to the US. If they see it as a way to undercut the US/Taiwan hegemony on the chip markets, it might even just fun to do it.
      - SanDiegoSun 1mo ago
        HBM3E is something China can’t do yet. And their DDR5 17nm node process just cleared high yield rates 2 days ago. It will be interesting to see what happens here.

by wisty 1mo ago

The cure for high prices is high prices. Selling out creates scalpers and sometimes even a speculative bubble. High prices means producers invest in new fabs (though it may take time).

Forgeties79 1mo ago

>though it may take time That’s what makes this so distinct so it probably shouldn’t just be some offhand parenthetical at the end. It’s incredibly expensive, it takes a long time, and it’s incredibly specialized. You can absolutely forget the idea of a “disruptive startup” entering that space too.

spockz 1mo ago
Maybe not a traditional disruptive startup but isn’t CXMT from China stepping in to build all those fabs? Previously investing in that space didn’t make a lot of sense. Now that there are a lot of consumers willing to buy something they can build and sell at a price between the previous low point and the current high point. The only tricky thing is that the current shortages need to continue until the fans are well up and running. Even if the supply side suddenly crashes due to the AI bubble bursting or someone inventing a way to only need 1/10 of RAM, I can imagine them keeping the prices relatively high.
- Forgeties79 1mo ago
  It takes several years to get production and distribution started. You’re not going to see a rush chasing current consumer ram prices like you would a popular toy or something.
  - spockz 1mo ago
    Distribution is already mostly in place. The existing channels have run dry so they can be filled with the new supply. Building things happens a bit quicker in PRC compared to the US. If they see it as a way to undercut the US/Taiwan hegemony on the chip markets, it might even just fun to do it.
    - SanDiegoSun 1mo ago
      HBM3E is something China can’t do yet. And their DDR5 17nm node process just cleared high yield rates 2 days ago. It will be interesting to see what happens here.