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Honest ask because I’ve not generally paid attention… Is it the case that the numbers always appear more optimistic, and then are revised to be more pessimisti

Honest ask because I’ve not generally paid attention… Is it the case that the numbers always appear more optimistic, and then are revised to be more pessimistic values? Or is it just that the original numbers are off and are revised? Does that make sense?

ceejayoz 1mo ago
They move in both directions regularly, typically in the direction the economic situation is moving at the time. Chart: https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573 https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573
- JumpCrisscross 1mo ago
  > They move in both directions regularly, typically in the direction the economic situation is moving And for good reason! These are surveys. The easiest respondents are those saying “no change.” The latest responses, the ones who had the biggest change. In a booming economy, the biggest changes will be hires. In a troubled one, the biggest changes will be those doing lay-offs. Add to that: the BLS tries to correct for this effect. Which means at the moment the economy turns, its corrections skew the wrong way. (On the whole, per the above chart, the figures are getting better over time.)