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> Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued? Well, given the literal trillions being spent, the only
by ekidd 2mo ago
> Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued?
Well, given the literal trillions being spent, the only ways this pays off are:
1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees.
2. Someone builds a Culture Mind, and humans become (hopefully) pampered pets of AIs we don't understand. Seems unlikely, but it would arguably count as a payoff even if it made money meaningless.
Or maybe the AIs don't want pets, and you get SkyNet. Which definitely doesn't care about paying off anyone's investments.
When you look at various news articles about investors, yeah, there are definitely a lot of rich people who think that they're going to automate all human labor or just bring about the Singularity. Possibly with them in charge of the rest of us. If you don't make these kinds of wild assumptions, then yeah, this is looking like one of the biggest bubbles ever.
- aurareturn 2mo agoCan we see some actual numbers, projections, models instead of vibes?
- atwrk 2mo agoDebt is at $3 trillion right now: https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-capital-spending-hidden-borrowing-bond-issuance/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-cap... Interest alone, at assumed 5%, amounts to about $150 billions per year. That's probably higher than the combined AI revenue of the top 3 providers.
- aurareturn 2mo agoDid you read your own article? It's well less than $3 trillion. Now let's build the model out more. What is the projected revenue, backlog, improvements in existing big tech businesses such as AI helping Meta's ad business?
- atwrk 2mo agoDid you read beyond the headline? It's 1.65 trillion hidden and 1.35 trillion overt - which sums up to 3 trillion.
- aurareturn 1mo agoOk, so they're using footnotes. Can you now analyze backlog? For example, Microsoft and Amazon have backlogs of $1.45 trillion. Not including Google, Oracle, Meta.
- qwytw 2mo agoThat's what you should ask the companies spending massive amounts of money on AI though?
- CamperBob2 2mo ago1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees. I mean, it's pretty clear that's going to happen. How could it not? The only question is whether resources are optimally allocated at the moment to prepare for this. That seems unlikely at best. So yes, there is probably a bubble, and if so, then yes, it will pop, and then life will go on, with resources better allocated. Just like when the dot-com bubble popped.