6 ms·

Yeah with China pumping state subventions into car manufacturing, they can outcompete any car manufacturer anywhere in the world. The leading battery technology

by est31 2mo ago

Yeah with China pumping state subventions into car manufacturing, they can outcompete any car manufacturer anywhere in the world. The leading battery technology is in Asia anyways. The German car industry will not die completely, as the EU can protect its market from chinese manufacturers through regulation. But it will shrink and transform. Probably also back to fossil fuels (yuck), because there the Germans still have a lead (they are trailing with EVs). Germany's new hot industry is defense technology.

rwmj 2mo ago
They're also making cars that people want to buy for a price they can afford. Toyota aren't making any cars I want to buy (at any price).
- nradov 2mo ago
  And yet the Toyota RAV4 hybrid is selling so fast in the USA that customers can barely find one at a dealership.
- seabird 2mo ago
  At least in the US, Toyota is wildly successful across every segment. The RAV4, Camry, Corolla, and Tacoma do massive numbers, even though the compact and midsize sedan market is collapsing. Even niche offerings like the GR Corolla can be challenging to procure from a dealer. The Toyota Tax in the used market is unbelievable. For a huge number of people, there is no manufacturer that gets even close to the same amount of respect that Toyota does. Their victory was so overwhelming that it permanently changed how manufacturing is done and an entire generation of prideful Americans will readily admit that the Big Three were on the back foot in the 80s and 90s. Not to say that China isn’t capable of something similar, but you do have to understand that your tastes/value assessments are very much not representative of the sizable US market on the whole if you would seriously take a Sentra over a Corolla, or an Equinox over a RAV4. The calculus may be a bit different in the European market, of course.
leonidasrup 2mo ago
German car industry can produce state of art ICE, because they can manufacture the heart of ICE - the engine. German car industry is trailing with EVs, because they can not manufacture the heart of EV - the battery.
- sajithdilshan 2mo ago
  I think the biggest problem with German EVs are not the battery but the software. EVs are practically computers on a wheel and compared to the competitors the software and features it offers are still terrible. I remember VW even had a huge joint venture with Rivian to get things back on track. But seems like it didn’t work out
  - lysace 2mo ago
    Is the Chinese automotive software better than the German equivalent?
  - tcfhgj 2mo ago
    > EVs are practically computers on a wheel aren't all cars these days?
  - antonkochubey 2mo ago
    >EVs are practically computers on a wheel There’s nothing about EV drivetrain that requires more complicated software than ICE powertrain. It’s just consumerism telling people that their next vehicle (whatever drivetrain) should be an iPad, a home cinema, and a PlayStation all-in-one.
  - leonidasrup 1mo ago
    The biggest problem with German EVs are not the software but the battery. The battery is the most expensive component in an EV: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/electric-vehicle-cost-breakdown-by-component/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/electric-vehicle-cos... As EVs are computers on a wheel, there is no reason why the same computer can not be installed into an ICE car.
- 2mo ago
sajithdilshan 2mo ago
Last time the Germans got into defence technology, it didn’t end well for the whole world. Let’s hope it wouldn’t be the case this time
- ahartmetz 2mo ago
  Well, the intention is much more really-actually-defensive this time.
- Arnt 2mo ago
  Germany is currently the world's fourth biggest weapons exporter, and AIUI that's roughly how it has been for decades.
Johanx64 2mo ago
Man, every time where there's a Chinese product category you realistically can't compete with - it's always some excuse of - because Chinese state is subsidizing it and supporting it. All it does is simply makes the Chinese government sound good and competent. Oh, nice, a government that does good things that lead to good outcomes! How unusual, how unexpected! That's basically cheating! We can't realistically have our government be useful and competent and serve our interests, so there's no way we can compete!
- toomuchtodo 2mo ago
  Capitalism and free markets failed to deliver, lots of cope around that mental model. If it was superior, it would’ve succeeded. China is 1/3rd of global manufacturing capacity, and it shows. Play to win.
  - freefaler 2mo ago
    It was the market that delivered BYD and Xiaomi. The government did his part with industrial policy and inviting Tesla to China to help start the ecosystem, but the brutal competition between Chinese auto makers following the rules of capitalism and free-market made those who survive the ones that can compete with other global companies. Before that they just subsidised and all they got were regional "champions" that siphoned out the funds and created shitty products no one wanted. After Tesla came with special laws allowing it to work without Chinese co-ownership, but with a mandate to source from Chinese suppliers, this created the ecosystem needed for the next iteration, by the capitalist urge of Elon to get into the market and by free-market economy of suppliers to Tesla that are up to the standards to supply it. The government set up the battlefield, and let the free-maket filter the strongest to survive. In the Western countries the government and regulations are frequently the bane of the car companies. Good luck opening a mine or a battery factory in Germany, regulation, unions, green mandates, 36 hr. week. You can't fight with 1 leg tied.
    - toomuchtodo 2mo ago
      This narrative overweights free market competition in China and any influence Tesla or Musk might have had versus the $230B in subsides provided to the Chinese EV industry over 14 years (2009-2023), with over ~$1.5B provided to CATL alone (although Tesla did receive ~$17B in total government subsidies in the US). Tesla did not begin production in China until October 2019. If there’s any hero story here, its the will of the CCP to provide this level of support and subsidy to the Chinese battery and EV industries as part of their five year plans. This is why China can build ~20M EVs per year, Europe ~4.6M, and the US can build ~2-3M. I understand this deeply challenges the ideas and belief systems around the cult of personality of risk taking entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship being something more than a series of successful calculated risks and bets. https://ev.com/news/csis-study-finds-chinas-ev-industry-boosted-with-230-billion-in-support https://ev.com/news/csis-study-finds-chinas-ev-industry-boos... > When it comes to China’s electric vehicles (EV) industry, its market has expanded exponentially compared to other markets. Now, a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has revealed that China’s EV industry received at least $230.8 billion in government support between 2009 and 2023. > As a result, this major investment has played a pivotal role in China’s rapid progress to become the world’s largest EV market, with sales anticipated to reach 10 million units in 2024. https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dilemma-subsidized-yet-striking https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dil... https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-nev-war-implications-chinas-advances-electric-vehicles https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-nev-war-implications-ch...

by est31 2mo ago

rwmj 2mo ago

They're also making cars that people want to buy for a price they can afford. Toyota aren't making any cars I want to buy (at any price).

nradov 2mo ago
And yet the Toyota RAV4 hybrid is selling so fast in the USA that customers can barely find one at a dealership.
seabird 2mo ago
At least in the US, Toyota is wildly successful across every segment. The RAV4, Camry, Corolla, and Tacoma do massive numbers, even though the compact and midsize sedan market is collapsing. Even niche offerings like the GR Corolla can be challenging to procure from a dealer. The Toyota Tax in the used market is unbelievable. For a huge number of people, there is no manufacturer that gets even close to the same amount of respect that Toyota does. Their victory was so overwhelming that it permanently changed how manufacturing is done and an entire generation of prideful Americans will readily admit that the Big Three were on the back foot in the 80s and 90s. Not to say that China isn’t capable of something similar, but you do have to understand that your tastes/value assessments are very much not representative of the sizable US market on the whole if you would seriously take a Sentra over a Corolla, or an Equinox over a RAV4. The calculus may be a bit different in the European market, of course.

leonidasrup 2mo ago

German car industry can produce state of art ICE, because they can manufacture the heart of ICE - the engine. German car industry is trailing with EVs, because they can not manufacture the heart of EV - the battery.

sajithdilshan 2mo ago
I think the biggest problem with German EVs are not the battery but the software. EVs are practically computers on a wheel and compared to the competitors the software and features it offers are still terrible. I remember VW even had a huge joint venture with Rivian to get things back on track. But seems like it didn’t work out
- lysace 2mo ago
  Is the Chinese automotive software better than the German equivalent?
- tcfhgj 2mo ago
  > EVs are practically computers on a wheel aren't all cars these days?
- antonkochubey 2mo ago
  >EVs are practically computers on a wheel There’s nothing about EV drivetrain that requires more complicated software than ICE powertrain. It’s just consumerism telling people that their next vehicle (whatever drivetrain) should be an iPad, a home cinema, and a PlayStation all-in-one.
- leonidasrup 1mo ago
  The biggest problem with German EVs are not the software but the battery. The battery is the most expensive component in an EV: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/electric-vehicle-cost-breakdown-by-component/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/electric-vehicle-cos... As EVs are computers on a wheel, there is no reason why the same computer can not be installed into an ICE car.
2mo ago

sajithdilshan 2mo ago

Last time the Germans got into defence technology, it didn’t end well for the whole world. Let’s hope it wouldn’t be the case this time

ahartmetz 2mo ago
Well, the intention is much more really-actually-defensive this time.
Arnt 2mo ago
Germany is currently the world's fourth biggest weapons exporter, and AIUI that's roughly how it has been for decades.

Johanx64 2mo ago

Man, every time where there's a Chinese product category you realistically can't compete with - it's always some excuse of - because Chinese state is subsidizing it and supporting it. All it does is simply makes the Chinese government sound good and competent. Oh, nice, a government that does good things that lead to good outcomes! How unusual, how unexpected! That's basically cheating! We can't realistically have our government be useful and competent and serve our interests, so there's no way we can compete!

toomuchtodo 2mo ago
Capitalism and free markets failed to deliver, lots of cope around that mental model. If it was superior, it would’ve succeeded. China is 1/3rd of global manufacturing capacity, and it shows. Play to win.
- freefaler 2mo ago
  It was the market that delivered BYD and Xiaomi. The government did his part with industrial policy and inviting Tesla to China to help start the ecosystem, but the brutal competition between Chinese auto makers following the rules of capitalism and free-market made those who survive the ones that can compete with other global companies. Before that they just subsidised and all they got were regional "champions" that siphoned out the funds and created shitty products no one wanted. After Tesla came with special laws allowing it to work without Chinese co-ownership, but with a mandate to source from Chinese suppliers, this created the ecosystem needed for the next iteration, by the capitalist urge of Elon to get into the market and by free-market economy of suppliers to Tesla that are up to the standards to supply it. The government set up the battlefield, and let the free-maket filter the strongest to survive. In the Western countries the government and regulations are frequently the bane of the car companies. Good luck opening a mine or a battery factory in Germany, regulation, unions, green mandates, 36 hr. week. You can't fight with 1 leg tied.
  - toomuchtodo 2mo ago
    This narrative overweights free market competition in China and any influence Tesla or Musk might have had versus the $230B in subsides provided to the Chinese EV industry over 14 years (2009-2023), with over ~$1.5B provided to CATL alone (although Tesla did receive ~$17B in total government subsidies in the US). Tesla did not begin production in China until October 2019. If there’s any hero story here, its the will of the CCP to provide this level of support and subsidy to the Chinese battery and EV industries as part of their five year plans. This is why China can build ~20M EVs per year, Europe ~4.6M, and the US can build ~2-3M. I understand this deeply challenges the ideas and belief systems around the cult of personality of risk taking entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship being something more than a series of successful calculated risks and bets. https://ev.com/news/csis-study-finds-chinas-ev-industry-boosted-with-230-billion-in-support https://ev.com/news/csis-study-finds-chinas-ev-industry-boos... > When it comes to China’s electric vehicles (EV) industry, its market has expanded exponentially compared to other markets. Now, a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has revealed that China’s EV industry received at least $230.8 billion in government support between 2009 and 2023. > As a result, this major investment has played a pivotal role in China’s rapid progress to become the world’s largest EV market, with sales anticipated to reach 10 million units in 2024. https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dilemma-subsidized-yet-striking https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dil... https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-nev-war-implications-chinas-advances-electric-vehicles https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-nev-war-implications-ch...