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I'm mostly talking about incredibly environmentally destructive data centers and energy use on the current trajectory. Not even thinking about water problems, t

I'm mostly talking about incredibly environmentally destructive data centers and energy use on the current trajectory. Not even thinking about water problems, the gas and coal requirements alone are climate disasters. [1] [2] But if it is a bubble, which many would argue is the case, an AI capex bust with it's circular financing collapse is one of, if not THE top threat to global financial stability. ~$725B combined hyperscaler capex in 2026 against roughly $25B of AI service revenue in 2025 on $250B+ of infrastructure spend. Not exactly a promising situation. [3] [4] This is immediate-picture, I'm not talking about a singularity extinction event. Just what's actually happening right now and the trajectory of the next 4 years. [1] https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/electricity-demand-data-centers-worldwide-set-more-double-2030-iea https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/electricity-d... [2] https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/energy-supply-for-ai https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/energy-supply-for-... [3] https://www.tftc.io/bis-annual-report-2026-ai-bubble-circular-financing-sovereign-debt https://www.tftc.io/bis-annual-report-2026-ai-bubble-circula... [4] https://alcapitaladvisory.com/research/intelligence/ai-infrastructure.html https://alcapitaladvisory.com/research/intelligence/ai-infra...

igor47 2mo ago
Hmm. I'm as big an environmentalist as anyone, but I'm pretty sceptical of the data centers as eco disasters narrative. Your sources indicate that renewables already meet over 50% of new data center demand, and the demand is predicted to drive advancements in technologies like SMRs. The water use of a data center is less than a golf course. Gas and coal cannot compete with renewables on price and speed of deployment, and increased utilization of the existing grid can help cover fixed costs which dominate the cost structure, resulting in decreased prices overall even as we increase deployment of renewables.
- elliotec 2mo ago
  The sources say over 40% of incremental demand will need to be met with gas and coal over the next 4 years, which have 30-40 year book lives. So we're locking in that much more non-renewable energy for at least a generation. The water thing is a separate issue, and it's not about "water use" itself.
dmix 2mo ago
China managed to double energy production between 2015-2025 (including 60 nuclear reactors). On paper the west should be able to do the same, tech companies are putting huge money into solar, natural gas, and nuclear. Most of the limitations are as you mention people protesting the whole idea of new industry and energy, which is the source of most of the risk. That plus open model/Chinese competition undercutting some big US IPOs. The long term investments in datacenters and chip manufacturing will likely coincide with with growth in demand from humanoid robots and self-driving cars, so it is likely going to happen anyway over the next decade. It just will take longer than people expect which creates financial risk, but US capital markets are more resilient than people think.
- yogthos 2mo ago
  China has tightly integrated domestic supply and a centrally planned economy. That's why China has consistently been able to do things that are simply impossible in the west.
  - jurgenburgen 2mo ago
    Why is our economy so shitty?
    - yogthos 2mo ago
      Because that's what capitalism selects for. Making profit is a singular selection function for companies, with any social good being strictly incidentally. So, the slimiest companies that cheat, scam, pollute, and do anything they can to externalize their costs end up dominating the market over time. Early on, there is incentive to make a better product to get a customer base and brand recognition. But competition means that some companies win and other lose, which means winners get bigger and harder to compete with over time. Once they get big enough, they no longer have to worry about making a good product. They can just muscle out or buy up new competitors. That's the monopoly stage, and at that point enshittification becomes the name of the game. Destin from Smarter Every Day just did a good show on the problem incidentally https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vS6HEes8daw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vS6HEes8daw
barrkel 2mo ago
The facts don't support a real eco panic. IMO it's a proxy for middle class job security fears, displacing into known middle class shibboleths. It can be sincere, but it's motivated reasoning.

igor47 2mo ago

Hmm. I'm as big an environmentalist as anyone, but I'm pretty sceptical of the data centers as eco disasters narrative. Your sources indicate that renewables already meet over 50% of new data center demand, and the demand is predicted to drive advancements in technologies like SMRs. The water use of a data center is less than a golf course. Gas and coal cannot compete with renewables on price and speed of deployment, and increased utilization of the existing grid can help cover fixed costs which dominate the cost structure, resulting in decreased prices overall even as we increase deployment of renewables.

elliotec 2mo ago
The sources say over 40% of incremental demand will need to be met with gas and coal over the next 4 years, which have 30-40 year book lives. So we're locking in that much more non-renewable energy for at least a generation. The water thing is a separate issue, and it's not about "water use" itself.

dmix 2mo ago

China managed to double energy production between 2015-2025 (including 60 nuclear reactors). On paper the west should be able to do the same, tech companies are putting huge money into solar, natural gas, and nuclear. Most of the limitations are as you mention people protesting the whole idea of new industry and energy, which is the source of most of the risk. That plus open model/Chinese competition undercutting some big US IPOs. The long term investments in datacenters and chip manufacturing will likely coincide with with growth in demand from humanoid robots and self-driving cars, so it is likely going to happen anyway over the next decade. It just will take longer than people expect which creates financial risk, but US capital markets are more resilient than people think.

yogthos 2mo ago
China has tightly integrated domestic supply and a centrally planned economy. That's why China has consistently been able to do things that are simply impossible in the west.
- jurgenburgen 2mo ago
  Why is our economy so shitty?
  - yogthos 2mo ago
    Because that's what capitalism selects for. Making profit is a singular selection function for companies, with any social good being strictly incidentally. So, the slimiest companies that cheat, scam, pollute, and do anything they can to externalize their costs end up dominating the market over time. Early on, there is incentive to make a better product to get a customer base and brand recognition. But competition means that some companies win and other lose, which means winners get bigger and harder to compete with over time. Once they get big enough, they no longer have to worry about making a good product. They can just muscle out or buy up new competitors. That's the monopoly stage, and at that point enshittification becomes the name of the game. Destin from Smarter Every Day just did a good show on the problem incidentally https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vS6HEes8daw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vS6HEes8daw

barrkel 2mo ago

The facts don't support a real eco panic. IMO it's a proxy for middle class job security fears, displacing into known middle class shibboleths. It can be sincere, but it's motivated reasoning.