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Something people don't seem to see, and not that it's placed directly in front of you, is that pacing the release and adoption of AI is already happening. Cost
by tcdent 2mo ago
Something people don't seem to see, and not that it's placed directly in front of you, is that pacing the release and adoption of AI is already happening.
Cost-per-token determines the economic viability of tasks that AI gets applied to. How many tokens would it take to automate all of the responsibilities of a gas station clerk? Probably more than their hourly wage. Job safe.
A slightly larger stretch, that most people attribute to profit margins (labs do not have profit margins, they have unlimited invested capital and no expectation of short-term returns), is the flat-rate billing plans of most code products. Why doesn't Anthropic have a 50x or 100x Max plan? Not that it's impossible, that it releases tokens into the workforce at a greater rate (note that their are hour, day, week limits across most of these services as well).
Hypothetical, but reasoned, and I do not expect most agree with me. If compute as a variable is inferred, this supports the incorporation a deliberate (redundant) one as well.
- alach11 2mo agoI agree with the substance of your comment that token economics pace the diffusion of AI into the labor market. But I think they have a much smaller influence over the pace of the frontier, right?
- tcdent 2mo agoFair point! I guess I read "pacing the frontier" as "pacing the release of the frontier" surely no lab's internal research team is just going to stop innovating?
- adamzenith 2mo agoNot under all the competitive pressure they are facing, but if an industry wide slowdown could be achieved they might spend more time on model alignment and less on pure capabilities.