7 ms·

I wonder if we’re actually in like a shadow recession and companies are just using AI as an excuse to do layoffs or hire less. Idk there’s a lot of diff variab

I wonder if we’re actually in like a shadow recession and companies are just using AI as an excuse to do layoffs or hire less. Idk there’s a lot of diff variables and it’s complicated of course, I really don’t think it’s because “AI’s taking the jobs” tho.

shivpat23 2mo ago
Unemployment rate and labor participation rate don’t support this.. probably true for software engineering but not the broader economy afaict
- irishcoffee 2mo ago
  Uh, wat? Edit: for clarification, it’s never been worse. See link. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/labor-market-data-hits-record-135138800.html https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/labor-market-data...
  - Izkata 2mo ago
    Labor force participation rate was worse during the 2020 lockdowns and the entire recorded period before 1976: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART Unemployment rate has been going down for the past couple months, even though it was already lower than it has been for most of the period since the 70s: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE That Yahoo page mentions these as a source, but it doesn't link them, presumably because they don't match its claims. That said, both going down implies the people without jobs have stopped looking for jobs (which drops them from the unemployment rate calculation). Question then is why have they stopped and how are they getting by? Or perhaps it's the other way around, new kids entering working age and not bothering to look for a job while living off their parents, and people in retirement age who won't retire for whatever reason?
    - Balinares 2mo ago
      Charity / fundraisers, one-off under the table gigs for acquaintances, pooling scant resources with more roommates, skipping meals... It's been really bleak over there lately. The number of survival fundraisers I've seen floating around has exploded.
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]
alephnerd 2mo ago
For tech it truly depends on your geo. If you are in Western Europe, then yes it's because of a shadow recession. If you are in Seattle, then it's because the larger employers are shifting headcount to the Bay or abroad. If you are not in the Bay, NYC, or Seattle, it's because domestic nearshoring during 2018-23 failed (eg. Cisco, NetApp, and Google in RTP) I've written about this before on here [0][1] [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45466975 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45466975 [1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561

shivpat23 2mo ago

Unemployment rate and labor participation rate don’t support this.. probably true for software engineering but not the broader economy afaict

irishcoffee 2mo ago
Uh, wat? Edit: for clarification, it’s never been worse. See link. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/labor-market-data-hits-record-135138800.html https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/labor-market-data...
- Izkata 2mo ago
  Labor force participation rate was worse during the 2020 lockdowns and the entire recorded period before 1976: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART Unemployment rate has been going down for the past couple months, even though it was already lower than it has been for most of the period since the 70s: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE That Yahoo page mentions these as a source, but it doesn't link them, presumably because they don't match its claims. That said, both going down implies the people without jobs have stopped looking for jobs (which drops them from the unemployment rate calculation). Question then is why have they stopped and how are they getting by? Or perhaps it's the other way around, new kids entering working age and not bothering to look for a job while living off their parents, and people in retirement age who won't retire for whatever reason?
  - Balinares 2mo ago
    Charity / fundraisers, one-off under the table gigs for acquaintances, pooling scant resources with more roommates, skipping meals... It's been really bleak over there lately. The number of survival fundraisers I've seen floating around has exploded.
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]

alephnerd 2mo ago

For tech it truly depends on your geo. If you are in Western Europe, then yes it's because of a shadow recession. If you are in Seattle, then it's because the larger employers are shifting headcount to the Bay or abroad. If you are not in the Bay, NYC, or Seattle, it's because domestic nearshoring during 2018-23 failed (eg. Cisco, NetApp, and Google in RTP) I've written about this before on here [0][1] [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45466975 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45466975 [1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561